Deductive Method. 
263 
the first grade, 1884, and the second grade, 1887, the same 
phenomena were observable in Milwaukee (Table V), it would 
appear that the cause was a wide-reaching social condition. 
Since a larger per cent, in these grades indicates a smaller per 
cent, in the grammar grades, what bearing does this fact have 
on the theory that in “ good times ” advanced pupils do not 
attend school so largely as in “ bad times ” ? 
At first thought it would seem that there are disturbing: 
factors which would render the apparent regularity of the fig¬ 
ures impossible. Such are the death rate and fluctuations in 
the population from annexation, immigration, and exodus. The 
death rate, however, during school age, as we shall presently 
see (p. 270), is so small as not to affect the results appreci¬ 
ably; while, explain it as we may, the same wonderful regular¬ 
ity is found throughout the table despite the great increase in 
immigration in recent years and such sudden changes as the 
annexation of a large population in suburban districts in 1889 
and 1890. The most reasonable hypothesis is, that additions 
to the population brought with them the same normal per cents 
of children to enter the various grades. It seems probable from 
data adduced in subsequent pages (pp. 273-4) that not only other 
parts of the United States but many countries of Europe, carry 
education to about the same grades; so that pupils coming from 
them to Chicago are simply transferred in grade. This is no 
doubt almost absolutely true of the annexed districts. 
Deductive Method Applied to Milwaukee .— The similarity of the 
Milwaukee statistics may be seen by applying the same deduc¬ 
tive method to them. As has already been said, the figures of 
the actual enrollment in Milwaukee are not obtainable, but the 
statistics of the “average enrollment ” are in nearly enough the 
same proportion to answer for the comparison. 1 
Since the per cents in the Milwaukee reports include the 
kindergarten and exclude the high school, revised tables are 
given, with reductions so made as to be comparable with the 
1 Table V. Per Cent, of Enrollment in Each Grade (Milwaukee), p. 286. 
This table is compiled from the per cents given in the Statistical Tables 
of the annual reports of the School Board — e. g., Report for 1895-96, p. 64. 
