436 THE CULTURE OF AND COMMERCE IN OPIUM IN ASIA MINOR. 
The first baskets of opium arrive in Smyrna about the end of May or beginning 
June, but for several reasons it is not safe to effect any shipments before the month of 
August. First, too fresh opium is liable to get heated; secondly, the Chikintee is not 
so easily detected ; and thirdly, it gives a loss in weight. 
Apart from agricultural causes, the crop of opium, like that of all other productions, 
depends in a great measure on the ruling prices at the close of the season, which in¬ 
fluences its greater or lesser sowing, so that after a large crop, with low prices, a 
small crop, and of course high prices, are almost sure to follow, and vice versa. As a 
guide to the probable ruling prices of a season, the extent of the crop is, of course, 
a very good criterion; to ascertain this, however, with any degree of accuracy, the 
greatest difficulty is encountered. First of all, the merchants-stockholders, who know 
well the influence of quantity on price, are always ready to misguide one, and se¬ 
condly, no account can be obtained from the Government tax gatherer, as the tithes 
are usually sold by auction; it is only by dint of great exertions and experience that 
anything like the truth can be ascertained. 
The best time for effecting purchases, as a rule, is at the commencement of a season ; 
with a small crop, however, the chances are often most in favour to the buyer at the end 
of a season, for, according to the remark that after a small crop comes a large one, prices 
are generally affected towards the close by the coming crop. 
From a record published by the writer, some months ago, respecting the crops and 
shipments of opium for the last ten years, viz. from July, 1857, to June, 1867, the fol¬ 
lowing items may be deducted:— 
Average Crops. 
1857- 58. 3026 cases. Average price 16-28* 
1859- 60. 3013 „ „ „ 18'58 
1860- 61. 3381 „ „ „ 17-29 
1863- 64. 2866 „ -, „ 17-88 
3000 cases at 17s. tid. being the average quantity and price for the above four years. 
Short Crops. 
1858- 59. 1439 cases. Average price 19‘76 
1862-63. 2236 „ „ „ 18-01 
1866-67. 2246 „ „ „ 16-92 
2000 cases at 18s. being the average quantity and price for above three years. 
Large Crops. 
1861- 62. 4180 cases. Average price 14-39 
1864- 65. 3893 „ „ „ 15-20 
1865- 66. 4135 „ „ „ 13-83 
4000 cases, at 14s. 6c/., being the average quantity and price for the above three 
years. 
The total for the ten years is 30,415 cases, or an average of 3000 cases per year, at 
16-39, say 16s. 4 ±d. 
The months of June represent the smallest shipments, viz. 1326 cases, or an average of 
132 cases per month. 
The months of October the largest, viz. 4979 cases, or an average of 497 cases per 
month. 
Before the epoch at which the writer’s record begins, a fair crop consisted of only 
2000 baskets, and the average price was about 11s. 6d. The established progress of this 
article in so short a time is without parallel, the crops having nearly doubled themselves, 
and prices risen to fully 50 per cent. It would have been natural to suppose that, 
with such an increased production, prices would have lowered in proportion, which no 
doubt would have been the case, if demand had not also kept pace. This, to-day, cannot 
be properly satisfied under a supply of say 3500 baskets, beyond which only prices give 
way. It must not, however, be supposed that they can possibly go lower than the 
average of a full crop, for then it wouid not pay the agriculturist to cultivate this article, 
* These prices are calculated in shillings, and hundredths of shillings, per English pound, 
free on board. 
