378 
AMERICAN AGRICULTURIST. 
[September, 
Will Prices Go Up or Down? 
A Talk About Grain and Produce Speculations— 
Crop Prospects—Artificial Prices, high and 
l ow _“ Bulls” aud “ Bears ’’-The Time to 
Sell, etc. 
“Shall we sell now, or hold on ? “ Do you 
think prices will advance or decline ? ’’—These 
questions come to us more frequently and urgently 
than any and all others, at this season of the year— 
and the same has been the case for eight-and-twenty 
years past. If we had, or could get the knowledge 
that would enable us to answer this question with 
certainty, we could use that knowledge to make a 
million dollars in a single month. Tears ago the 
American Agriculturist attempted to gather the de¬ 
sired statistics, and partially succeeded, but the 
work was so great and important, that it was turned 
over to the Agricultural Bureau at Washington, on 
the promise that it should be expanded into a na¬ 
tional enterprise. It has ever since been carried on 
about as we planned and started it, but often with 
even less efficiency and accuracy. The Agricultur¬ 
al Bureau could, and ought to do the work so 
thoroughly that the public would be in possession 
of just the knowledge of the state of the crops, in 
this country and abroad, that would enable all to 
judge of the supply and demand which sh uld gov¬ 
ern the range of prices. We have sometimes de¬ 
sired to run that Bureau for a year or two, just to 
show what could be done in this direction alone, if 
in nothing else. 
How Gambling in Grain, etc., is Done. 
During two or three years past, and never so 
greatly as now, the methods of the Stock Ex¬ 
change have been introduced into the produce 
markets, and hundreds of men, in leading cities, 
notably in Chicago, Toledo, St. Louis, Baltimore, 
Cincinnati, and New York, are daily betting 
millions of dollars upon the probable prices of 
wheat, flour, corn, oats, lard, pork, bacon, etc. To 
illustrate : Mr. A. offers to deliver to Mr. B. a mil¬ 
lion bushels of No. 2 Red wheat at $1.22 per 
bushel, on the 31st day of August, though he (Mr. 
A. ) does not own a single bushel of wheat, and does 
not expect to. Mr. B. takes the offer, and makes a 
deposit of a small portion of the price or “margin.” 
in this case Mr. A. is said to be “ short,” and Mr. 
B. “long.” Mr. A. is “short” of what he has 
agreed to deliver. If the closing sale of this grade 
of wheat on Aug. 31 is only $1.20, Mr. B. pays Mr. 
A. 2 cents a bushel, or $20,000. But if the priee is 
$1.25, Mr. A. pays Mr.B. 3 cents a bushel, or $30,000. 
Usually no wheat is actually delivered. Sometimes, 
however, if there is a limited supply of wheat avail¬ 
able, and Mr. B. has capital enough, he secretly 
buys up all there is; he gets up a “corner” in 
wheat; and when settling day comes, he may require 
Mr. A. to deliver the wheat, or he may get others 
to try to buy it, while he refuses to sell until $1.30, 
or $1.40, or even $1.50 is offered, and the price of 
the day is fixed at that rate. In the last named 
case, Mr. A. would have to pay him the difference 
between $1.22 and $1.50, which on a million bushels 
would be 28x1,000,000 or, $280,000. If, on the con¬ 
trary, the price could be beat down on the settling 
day to $1.00 per bushel, Mr. B. would have to pay 
Mr. A. 22 cents a bushel, or $220,000. We have 
named only two individuals, but there are hundreds 
or thousands of persons doing the same thing, 
some betting on a few thousaud bushels, others oil 
hundreds of thousands, and a few heavy operators 
on millions. In times of excitement and activity 
the speculative “ sales ” of wheat during a few 
days amount to more than the entire surplus crop 
of the country during a year. The operators are in 
two classes, those like Mr. A. are “ shorts,” and 
those like Mr. B. are “longs.” Precisely the same 
operations are taking place with reference to other 
grades of wheat, corn, oats, lard, pork, etc. The 
same man often operates in several kinds of pro¬ 
duce, and may be “short” of one and “ long” of 
another. One speculator will often be short for 
August delivery ; long for September; and short or 
long for October, or for “the year.” 
“Bulling” and “Bearing” the Prices. 
It will be seen from the above that Mr. A., and 
all other “shorts” are greatly interested in de¬ 
pressing prices, in knocking them down, so that 
they can buy cheaply, or settle on a low basis, and 
they are called “bears” from Mr. Bruin’s way of 
knocking things down with his strong paws. On 
the contrary, Mr. B. and his class of “longs’’want 
prices pushed up to the highest possible figures; they 
are called “ bulls,” from the animal that tosses his 
victims upward on his horns. These explanations 
will enable one to understand the terms and ways 
of the Stock Exchange, where railway and other 
stocks, bonds, governments, etc., occupy the place 
of grain, hog products, etc., in the corn or produce 
exchanges. (It is well worth while for any one to 
visit both the stock and corn exchange buildings 
during business hours, when in New York or Chi¬ 
cago. We have been in all of these, and in those 
in London, Paris, and Frankfort, and the methods, 
and the “Babel ” are the same in all.) 
How Prices are Manipulated. 
As above stated, if left to their regular course, 
prices would be mainly governed by the relative 
supply and demand. But the two great classes of 
operators, having millions of dollars at stake, use 
every possible effort to affect the prices by artificial 
means. The “bears,” or “shorts,” in wheat or 
com circulate exaggerated reports of great crops, 
immense supplies left over from last year, increased 
acreage, and abundant crops all over Europe. They 
control newspapers in their interest. They send an 
army of correspondents through the country to 
write up glowing reports of the crop prospects. 
Telegrams and cable-grams fly thick and fast, es¬ 
pecially as a day for settling contracts approaches. 
Real and fictitious sales are made at low figures. 
On the contrary, the “ longs,” or “ bulls,” fill the 
country with reports of bad weather, chinch 
bug, rust, scarcity of old stocks, bad harvests in 
Europe, rumors of approaching war—in short, use 
every legitimate and illegitimate effort to raise 
prices to the highest figures until after the contracts 
are closed up. It may be added that parties specu¬ 
lating in the stocks and bonds of railways running 
through the grain regions, help the grain specula¬ 
tors in spreading the reports, favorable or unfavor¬ 
able, according to whether they are interested as 
“bulls” or “ bears,” in advancing or depressing 
the prices of railway securities. 
It will be seen from the above how important it 
is that the government—the Agricultural Bureau— 
should so organize and carry on the investigations 
and gathering of exact statistics, that the real 
producers, the farmers themselves, should have 
one source of accurate, trustworthy information. 
What Shall Farmers Do Now ? 
In this confusion of reports, what shall farmers 
do? Shall they sell at present rates, or hold fora 
rise ? We have watched the varying markets, care¬ 
fully for weeks past. Reports apparently equally 
reliable—but in fact utterly unreliable—about bal¬ 
ance each other. Some days the current runs one 
way, and then the opposite current seems to have 
the mastery. Reasoning from general principles 
and facts we should say, 
On the “ Bull Side,” 
1st. That after three successive years of excellent 
crops here and poor ones throughout Europe, a 
change was to be looked for in the natural order of 
things.—2d. That the early setting in of the last 
winter prevented some fall sowing, and the prepa¬ 
ration of much ground for spring seeding, and that 
the continuation of winter nearly a month later 
than usual could not but largely restrict the area 
sown.—3d. That the long, hard winter must have 
injured an unusual amount of winter grain.—4th. 
That the freshets in the wide river valleys des¬ 
troyed many thousands of acres, while the heavy 
and frequent rains, the comparatively cold weather 
during the early summer and much of later spring, 
must have seriously injured crops on all lowlands 
and on higher ground not quickly drained. Also 
that this cold, wet weather surely prevented a good 
growth of stalk and head, and actually ruined many 
fields. The above facts cannot be set aside by any 
amount of garbled reports. If all these unfavor¬ 
able circumstances decreased the total yield only 
one acre, or one bushel, in six, from last year’s crop, 
it would diminish the total wheat crop of the coun¬ 
try eighty million bushels. We guess the deprecia¬ 
tion, on the same area or acreage, will reach over a hun¬ 
dred million bushels. The better condition of the 
working classes in all parts of the country, enable 
them to consume a much larger amount of wheat 
flour, than for several years previous. An average 
increase in home consumption of one bushel of 
wheat, or one-fifth barrel of flour per person, during 
the year, would amount to fifty million bushels of 
wheat in this country alone. The only decided de¬ 
ficiency in the European wheat crop positively 
known up to this date, is in some parts of Germany, 
where there will be a considerable demand for im¬ 
ported wheat. The tendency of the above facts is, 
of course, in favor of short supply and high prices. 
On the “ Bear Side.” 
1st. The great increase of population all over the 
West within two years past, including a million of 
immigrants, mainly of a higher and better class of 
agricultural workers than previously, and the many 
million acres of new land broken since 1879, has 
undoubtedly materially increased the acreage of 
wheat in many localities—enough so to partly coun¬ 
terbalance the diminished yield per acre.—2d. The 
heavy, continuous snows of last winter protected 
many wheat-fields better than in ordinary years. 
3d. Though starting late, a large portion of the 
wheat crop has had time to push forward to maturi¬ 
ty, and much of it is already in the shock. At this 
writing there has been no general attack of rust or 
other serious trouble. Insects have been rather 
more destructive than usual—in a few places dis¬ 
astrously so—but this has been limited to small 
areas as compared with the whole wheat region. 
—4th. Trustworthy reports indicate that in the great 
northern wheat belt of Minnesota and Dakota, any 
deficiency from the poor stand will be fully made 
up by increased area, and a good yield generally, so 
that there will probably be an average crop, if no 
sudden storm disasters occur between now and 
threshing out.—5th. There is undoubtedly a consid 
erable amount of last year’s crop unmarketed, no¬ 
tably so on the Pacific Coast.—6th. The balancing of 
all trustworthy reports from Europe show that the 
demand upon this country will be much less than 
for two or three years past. All of these circum¬ 
stances and influences will tend to keep the demand 
down towards, if not below the supply, and prevent 
much rise in prices if they do not result in a decline. 
General Conclusions as to Selling. 
The leading facts and circumstances on both sides 
are set forth above. The great operators in grain 
and other products, both “bulls” and “bears,” 
have immense sums at stake. They are each spend¬ 
ing large amounts of money to privately ascertain 
the actual facts of the case, and are far better in¬ 
formed than ordinary farmers or dealers can be. 
Indeed, the common mass of speculators take their 
cue from the movements of these leaders. If 
prices were sure to go up in the future, the bulls 
would buy all the wheat offered at present, and even 
higher rates. If the bears were sure of a decline, 
they would not buy at any present rates, but would 
oversell the market very largely. For ourselves, we 
believe future prices are just about as likely to go 
up as down, or down as up. So, the only safe rule 
for us is, to sell when ready, to take as little risk as 
possible of damage in storage ; and being ready, 
and having sold, to simply say, “ I have done the 
best I could.” Then if prices go down, say, “Well, 
I was lucky.” If they go up, “ I might have done 
better to hold on, but if I had, it might have been 
different, and so I will not worry over it.” 
The Cultivation of Ginseng.— The root of 
Ginseng ( Aralia quinquefolium) brings a high price 
for export, and the growing scarcity of the plant in 
its native localities, suggests the idea of its culti¬ 
vation, hence we every now and then have enquiries 
on the subject. The plant is naturally found in 
the rich soil and in the shade of deep woods, 
whether it would succeed in open field culture is 
doubtful, but knowing of no experiments, we can 
not say that it will not. Plants that naturally grow 
in low wet grounds, often flourish in a surprising 
manner when transferred to dry soil, and it cannot 
