SCIENTIFIC INFORMATION AND MANAGEMENT POLICY 
FOR THE DELTA-SAN FRANCISCO BAY ECOSYSTEM 
Michael J. Herz and Michael A. Rozengurt 
Paul F. Romberg Tiburon Center for Environmental Studies 
San Francisco State University 
Abstract 
Despite the many attempts to create a useable data base with 
which to develop management policies for the Delta-Bay ecosys¬ 
tem, there is currently no agreement among scientists, resource 
managers, dischargers, and the public on a decision-making 
process that will lead to effective management. This paper 
proposes a procedure for developing management goals, scientific 
questions, research programs, conclusions, and recommendations 
leading to solutions for major estuarine problems based upon the 
systems analysis approach. The approach is illustrated with a 
number of systems block diagram examples. 
Thus far in this seminar presentation, there has been much 
discussion about science but little direct mention of management 
of the resources of San Francisco Bay and the Delta. However, 
it is important to realize that these earlier presentations have 
been about resource management because the data that have been 
presented -- the actual parts per million of pollutants in 
striped bass and the number of million acre feet of freshwater 
flowing into San Francisoc Bay from the Delta and rivers (after 
diverisons) — are all by-products of management decisions. 
They are measurements of the effectiveness of the management 
process. 
In fact, most of us believe that the status of the Delta and 
Bay and their natural resources has been determined to a great 
extent by prior management decisions. The problem is that we 
can't prove it. If we could show that the decline in freshwater 
inflow to the Delta and Bay or level of pollutants in the water 
caused the radical decline in striped bass, it would be 
relatively easy to convince resource managers that policies must 
be changed. The best that we can do is to find significant 
correlations (associations) between several of those factors 
(e.g., Rozengurt, Josselyn and Herz, this volume). Convincing 
resource managers that the findings the sufficient to warrant 
policy changes requires our developing the most powerful 
analytical techniques and the best scientific information and 
communicating it as clearly and concisely as possible in order 
to assist them with their decision-making. 
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