could escape and become established as water temperatures increase. An understanding of this 
interaction will help state AIS managers prioritize monitoring, inspection, education, and 
regulatory efforts. However, identifying AIS pathways can be challenging, especially in light of 
anticipated climate changes. More information is needed to understand how vectors and 
pathways are influenced by climate change, and this information needs to be shared among 
states. 
Information needs for pathways and vectors under a changing climate may include the 
following: 
• Identify current priority pathways at state and regional levels and use existing 
environmental and biological data to identify how these pathways/vectors may change as 
temperatures and/or precipitation patterns change. 
• Identify new pathways that will emerge under a range of potential climate-change 
conditions, including increased water temperatures, changes in precipitation, sea level 
rise, and changes in sea-ice cover. The factors to consider will vary depending on state 
and region. 
• Identify species that will become invasive as conditions change in order to help target 
pathway analyses. Use data and information from other states with similar habitats and 
ecosystem types to extrapolate potential new invaders. 
o For example, extended warm temperatures in some areas due to climate change may 
result in an increase in recreational fishing, which could lead to a rise in boat traffic 
(an important AIS vector). Understanding the AIS implications of the emergence of 
these pathways, such as an increase in water hyacinth or zebra mussel introductions, 
and behavioral responses will be important information for managers adapting 
prevention and monitoring strategies. 
• Determine how pathway/vector analyses can be modified to account for climate-change 
effects (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and sea level changes) and provide accurate 
predictions. 
• Incorporate climate change information into models and systems that predict changes in 
pathways and transfer mechanisms. 
3.I.2.2. Information Needs Related to Prediction Models and Risk Analyses 
Besides understanding the interaction between climate change effects and vectors, 
managers need to know how species and habitats will respond to climate change (e.g., range 
expansion, ability for species to establish, habitat vulnerability to invasion). By integrating 
biological and ecological data on AIS with different climate-change scenarios, such as warmer 
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