summer temperatures, altered precipitation regimes, earlier snowmelt, or increased carbon 
dioxide levels, scientists and managers can improve risk analyses and prediction models. 
Information needs for prediction models and risk analyses under a changing climate may 
include the following: 
• Determine how existing invasive-species prediction models may be modified to 
incorporate climate-change data (e.g., water temperature, timing of precipitation, 
dissolved oxygen content, and sea level rise). Specifically, it will be important to 
integrate known data about the biology of AIS into mechanistic, spatially-explicit models 
that include relevant climate-change parameters. Temporal and spatial scales of AIS 
spread and establishment will also need to be considered. 
• Develop new models to improve predictions of species responses to climate changes in 
order to provide managers with some expectations for ecosystem changes. Consider 
habitat alterations caused by climate change, especially thresholds in aquatic habitats, and 
the interactions between species’ adaptive capacities, their shifting climatic boundaries, 
and the shifting landscape that will lead to new potential distributions. 
• Establish baseline datasets with information on existing AIS at state and regional levels 
in order to allow quantitative statistical analysis across climate-change scenarios. 
• Identity AIS not yet found in northern climates that have temperature tolerances that 
would allow them to overwinter as northern climates become milder (i.e., there is a need 
for information on temperature tolerances of species and on how these tolerances may 
change over time). 
• Research how climate change may affect the conditions that may lead to invasion (e.g., 
disturbed habitat, decreased native biodiversity, and altered light availability). Research 
will need to focus on both species and habitat characteristics. 
o For example, two questions to consider are, will increased intense weather events 
(e.g., hurricanes, floods) lead to an increase in disturbed habitats that could facilitate 
invasion by AIS? and will certain AIS be more prone to invade these habitats than 
other AIS? 
• Identify mechanisms to integrate climate change parameters (e.g., water temperature, 
dissolved oxygen content, sea level rise) into risk analyses to more accurately determine 
the threat of a species establishment and spread within an area. 
• Assess the risk that non-native species currently allowed into the U.S. may become 
invasive and/or expand their ranges in response to climate change. Coordination with 
other states and other types agencies will be important in addressing this need, because 
decisions about which species to allow are not always made by the same agencies that 
monitor and manage AIS. 
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