1.7.2. Models to Assess Invasive Species Distributions 
Most models that specifically address invasive species spread, distribution, and 
establishment do not incorporate climate change variables; however, many of these models could 
be modified to account for these changes. For example, diffusion models can be used to predict 
species dispersal patterns over a range of habitats (Buchan and Padilla, 1999; Grosholz, 1996). 
Factors that affect dispersion are important to the accuracy of these models; thus, they should 
incorporate climate-change factors, such as increased water temperatures and carbon dioxide and 
salinity levels, to determine how climate change may impact dispersal abilities and patterns. For 
example, boater movements facilitate zebra mussel dispersal (Buchan and Padilla, 1999). As 
temperatures stay warmer for longer periods of time and waterbodies remain ice-free for longer, 
boat traffic may increase and move into new areas. Diffusion models will need to account for 
these types of climate-induced changes in dispersal to ensure their accuracy. 
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