• Develop methods and models capable of forecasting causality to evaluate the ecological 
benefits of source reductions, to investigate stressor interactions, and to assess the gains 
and losses realized by various alternatives for restoration and remediation. 
Ancillary goals are to improve the state-of-the-science of monitoring and assessment in support 
of diagnostic methods, and to provide clients with diagnostic tools in user-friendly interfaces. 
Tools with different levels of accuracy and sophistication are needed within the program 
depending on cost-benefit ratios of decision making. Accordingly, the tools currently presented 
in this research plan range from simple screening tools (watershed classification schemes) to 
those of intermediate complexity (e.g., development of diagnostic community-scale indicators) to 
those of even greater complexity (e.g., use of linked mass-balance and food web models for Lake 
Michigan regional case study). Decision-support systems will be developed to incorporate all of 
these features as a format for technical transfer to ORD’s clients. Conceptual model 
development will provide a general framework for decision-support systems, which will then be 
regionalized based on classification systems developed to explain differences in system behavior 
(e.g., stressor-response relationships). Tools for diagnosing both single-stressor impacts and 
multiple stressor interactions will be piloted using regional case studies. These pilots will then 
be incorporated as example applications into decision-support systems. Ultimately, the decision- 
support systems will be linked to tools developed by NRMRL, forecasting not only future 
impacts based on no action, but also the results of alternative remediation scenarios. 
Annual Performance Goals have been derived by defining five implementation stages that the 
States must go through between monitoring and diagnosis of the causes of impairment 
(Appendix 1). Within each implementation phase, tasks that the States need to perform are 
defined, along with their associated uncertainties. These defined tasks are then used to derive 
related NHEERL research needs. Finally, research and technical transfer products are linked 
with these tasks, uncertainties, and research areas, and research and technical transfer products 
are identified as APMs associated with each APG. The time line for implementation of APMs is 
shown below, with APMs grouped by APGs. 
APG 1 FY03 (GPRA # 16) Provide the scientific foundation and information management 
scheme for the 303(d) listing process including a classification framework for surface waters, 
watersheds, and regions to guide problem formulation. 
APM 1A FY02 Conceptual framework for both single and multiple stressors including a 
consideration of cross-scale issues (AED, MED). 
APM IB FY03 (GPRA # 202) Classification frameworks for geographic regions and at 
the watershed, water body and habitat scale (MED, GED). 
APG 2 FY05 Provide first generation diagnostic methods, including stressor identification (SI) 
methods, for causal linkage of observed major classes of single stressors and biological 
indicators to stressors in freshwater and marine systems; scale the methods to States and 
watershed organizations. 
APM 2A FY03 Guidance on whole sediment TIE procedures (MED, AED). 
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