Smith and Pawn • SONGBIRDS SHIFT AUTUMN MIGRATION 
559 
TABLE 1. Model selection results for the highest ranked candidate AIC,. models that explain mean capture date of 11 
long-distance migrants captured at Kingston Wildlife Research Station, Rhode Island, between 1960 and 2007. Models are 
ranked based on Akaike weights (iv,) and only models with A, < 2.0 are shown. 
Model' 
r 
RSS 
Maximized 
logatf.)* 
AIC r 
A, 
W, 
** 
American Redstart ( Setophaga ruticilla) 
Y = temp 
3 
44 (1,598) 
772.02 
-63.03 
132.65 
0.0 
0.44 
Y = year + temp 
4 
44 (1,598) 
762.39 
-62.75 
134.53 
1.9 
0.17 
2.5 
Y = temp + caprate 
4 
44 (1.598) 
763.42 
-62.78 
134.58 
1.9 
0.17 
2.6 
Black-and-white Warbler ( MniotUta 
varia ) 
Y = year 
3 
39 (652) 
1,073.48 
-64.64 
135.97 
0.0 
0.43 
Y = year + temp 
4 
39 (652) 
1.036.29 
-63.96 
137.09 
1.1 
0.25 
1.8 
Y = year + caprate 
4 
39 (652) 
1,041.32 
-64.05 
137.28 
1.3 
0.22 
1.9 
Blackpoll Warbler (Dendroica striata) 
Y = year + temp 
4 
26 (386) 
616.69 
-41.16 
92.23 
0.0 
0.56 
Y = year 
3 
26 (386) 
733.51 
-43.42 
93.92 
1.7 
0.24 
2.3 
Blue-winged Warbler ( Vermivora cyanoptera) 
Y = temp 
3 
42 (838) 
1,126.24 
-69.07 
144.77 
0.0 
0.29 
Y = year 
3 
42 (838) 
1,153.45 
-69.57 
145.77 
1.0 
0.17 
1.7 
Y = caprate 
3 
42 (838) 
1,155.66 
-69.61 
145.85 
1.1 
0.17 
1.7 
Y = year + temp 
4 
42 (838) 
1,095.65 
-68.49 
146.06 
1.3 
0.15 
1.9 
Y = temp + caprate 
4 
42 (838) 
1,098.56 
-68.55 
146.17 
1.4 
0.14 
2.0 
Common Yellowthroat ( Geothlypis trichas) 
Y = year + year 
4 
44 (1,943) 
698.12 
-60.81 
130.65 
0.0 
0.49 
Y = year + year + caprate 
5 
44 (1,943) 
685.58 
-60.41 
132.41 
1.8 
0.21 
2.4 
Gray Catbird ( Dumetella carolinensis) 
Y - year + year 2 + year' + caprate 
6 
45 (4,840) 
650.55 
-60.10 
134.41 
0.0 
0.40 
Y = year + year + year 1 
5 
45 (4,840) 
692.74 
-61.51 
134.57 
0.2 
0.37 
1.1 
Northern Waterthrush (Parkesia novehoracensis) 
Y = year + caprate 
4 
23 (197) 
749.18 
-40.06 
90.34 
0.0 
0.30 
Y = year 
3 
23 (197) 
873.32 
-41.82 
90.91 
0.6 
0.23 
1.3 
Y = caprate 
3 
23 (197) 
899.91 
-42.17 
91.60 
1.3 
0.16 
1.9 
Y = temp 
3 
23 (197) 
907.02 
-42.26 
91.78 
1.4 
0.15 
2.0 
Ovenbird ( Seiurus aurocapiila ) 
Y = caprate 
3 
42 (554) 
1,479.33 
-74.80 
156.22 
0.0 
0.32 
Y = temp 
3 
42 (554) 
1,521.75 
-75.39 
157.41 
1.2 
0.18 
1.8 
Y = year 
3 
42 (554) 
1,521.87 
-75.39 
157.41 
1.2 
0.18 
1.8 
Y = year + caprate 
4 
42 (554) 
1,458.20 
-74.49 
158.07 
1.8 
0.13 
2.5 
Red-eyed Vireo ( Vireo olivaceus) 
Y = year 
3 
32 (385) 
2,196.50 
-67.66 
142.18 
0.0 
0.49 
Y = year + temp 
4 
32 (385) 
2,104.33 
-66.98 
143.43 
1.3 
0.26 
1.9 
Veery (Catharus fuscescens) 
Y = temp 
3 
38 (505) 
827.68 
-58.54 
123.79 
0.0 
0.40 
Y = year 5 
3 
38 (505) 
854.18 
-59.14 
124.98 
1.2 
0.22 
1.8 
Wood Thrush ( Hylocichla mustelina) 
Y = year 
3 
35 (400) 
1,024.11 
-59.08 
124.94 
0.0 
0.30 
Y ~ caprate 
3 
35 (400) 
1,049.98 
-59.52 
125.82 
0.9 
0.19 
1.6 
Y = temp 
3 
35 (400) 
1.050.88 
-59.54 
125.85 
0.9 
0.19 
1.6 
Y = year + temp 
4 
35 (400) 
1,003.50 
-58.73 
126.79 
1.8 
0.12 
2.6 
‘ Purameim: Y = mcan caplure date, temp = mean maximum daily temperature between 7 August and 31 October, and caprate = annual capture rate calculated 
“foe number of birds captured per 100 net hrs between 7 August and 31 October. 
„ Number of esiimatablc regression parameters in model including intercept and variance. 
d Number of years included in analyses. Total number of birds captured in all years included between I960 and 2007 is in parentheses. 
e Calculated as t-0.5n‘log<(RSS/«|l where RSS is the residual sum of squares. 
Evidence ratio where w, = the highest ranked model. 
