1919.] Pemberton.—Weather Forecasting in New Zealand. 
87 
WEATHER FORECASTING IN NEW ZEALAND. 
By B. Y. Pemberton, F.R.Met.Soc., Assistant Meteorologist, Meteoro¬ 
logical Office, Wellington, New Zealand. 
Introduction. 
Although the barometer was invented as long ago as 1643 its use as a 
means of foretelling the weather was recognized only about the beginning 
of last century. The method then adopted was to take an average of the 
readings of the barometer and thermometer, and the direction and force 
of the wind. These results were then charted to show the means of the 
elements over the earth. This method was a great advance, and gave 
an impetus to the scientists of those days to further the study of weather 
prognostics. 
It was found, however, that these general means were certainly not 
sufficient to give an idea of what weather to expect from day to day, or 
even of the average climatic conditions from month to month, that could 
be depended on. For instance, with regard to temperature, the mean 
monthly temperatures, taking the average of many years, may prove very 
different in any particular year. Napoleon discovered this to his cost, for 
he assumed, on the judgment of Laplace, that the cold of Russia would 
not set in until January, but in that year the great cold came a month 
earlier, and his army was lost in consequence. 
During the Crimean War a violent storm was experienced on the 
14th November, 1854, and the French and English fleets in the Black Sea 
narrowly escaped destruction, while the French man-of-war tc Henri IV ” 
was lost. It was known that a storm raged some days previously in 
western Europe, and this fact influenced the French Minister of War, 
Yalliant, to order an investigation by the astronomer Leverrier. From the 
data collected it was shown that the Crimean storm was identical with that 
experienced some days previously to the westward, and this occurrence 
caused a greater interest to develop in the study of storms and their pro¬ 
gression over the earth’s surface, and a revision of the science of forecasting 
weather-changes generally. 
About the year 1861 the first attempt of forecasting by means of 
synoptic charts was undertaken by Admiral Fitzroy, who was afterwards 
in charge of the London Meteorological Office as its first Director. 
The whole system of weather forecasting is primarily dependent on 
telegraphic communication, and the development of radio-telegraphy, by 
an extension of the observation area, has also been a further practical aid 
to the forecaster. 
Method of Forecasting. 
The history of the development of this branch of meteorology having 
thus been briefly touched on, an attempt can now be made to explain the 
principles of forecasting as adopted by weather bureaux throughout the 
world ; and, as our own local weather is naturally of more particular 
interest, it will be more easily followed if the conditions in New Zealand 
are used to illustrate these remarks. 
The particulars necessary for the construction of a weather chart are 
telegraphed to the central office from places distributed over the country, 
and also, if available, from places farther afield. These observations of 
wind direction and force, barometric pressure, temperature, weather—and. 
