1 
Published  Weekly  by  The  '  Ruial  Publishing  Co., 
VOIi,  LXXXIl.  333  W.  30th  St.,  New  York.  Price  One  Dollar  a  Year. 
NEW  YORK,  NOVEMBER  17,  1923 
Entered  as  Second-Class  Matter,  .Tune  26,  1879,  at  the  Post  NO.  4799 
Office  at  New  York,  N.  Y'.,  under  the  Act  of  March  3,  1879. 
Predicting,  Potato  Prices  on  the  N.  J.  Crop 
PART  I 
RESENT  HOLDINGS.— What  will  be  the 
price  of  potatoes  three  months  from  now? 
With  1,000  bags  of  Cobblers  on  hand  Sep¬ 
tember  1  in  Salem,  N.  J..  and  with  $4 
offered  f.  o.  b.,  shall  we  sell  or  hold?  This 
is  the  vital  question  which  every  potato 
grower  has  to  answer  every  year.  During  the  first 
of  the  1923  season,  when  potatoes  were  selling  at 
about  that  figure,  there  was,  as  usual,  a  difference 
of  opinion  about  future  prices.  The  government  esti¬ 
mates  showed  a  light  local  and  Southern  crop.  Vir- 
deal  of  help  from  the  government  estimates  of  acre¬ 
age  and  condition,  and  forecasts  of  production.  Yet. 
knowing  these  estimates,  different  farmers  arrive  at 
far  different  notions  as  to  future  prices.  In  ordeV 
really  to  use  these  figures  to  interpret  market  condi¬ 
tions  we  must  compare  them  with  figures  for  other 
years,  and  by  a  careful  analysis  of  conditions  in  the 
past  we  should  be  able  to  make  a  fair  estimate  of 
conditions  at  the  beginning  of  any  season. 
A  PRICE  FORMULA.— If  any  individual— wheth¬ 
er  he  is  a  farmer  or  a  dealer— is  going  to  predict 
Average  price  of  New  Jersey  Cobblers,  per  150-lb. 
sack.  New  York  wholesale,  August-November  = 
L 
1 -  +  CL 
.00147  X  +  .555 
Average  price  of  New  Jersey  Giants,  per  150-lb.  sack. 
New  York  wholesale,  August-December  = 
L 
- +  GL 
.001S9  X  +  .605 
X  =  the  deviation  of  production  from  the  trend. 
Values  for  the  trend  of  production  for  the  next  three 
years  are,  1923,  427  million  bushels 
1924,  435  million  bushels 
ginia  was  about  cleaned  up  when  Jersey  began  to 
ship.  A  number  of  farmers  and  dealers  were  pretty 
optimistic.  On  the  other  hand,  the  reports  showed 
that  the  production  for  the  whole  country  would  be 
almost  normal ;  $4  is  a  high  price  for  potatoes.  Was 
there  going  to  be  a  drop?  There  were  all  kinds  of 
guesses,  and  for  that  reason  farmers  followed  many 
different  policies  in  marketing  their  crop.  Those 
who  looked  for  a  higher  price  dug  as  late  as  pos¬ 
sible.  Those  who  figured  the  market  would  ease  off 
sold  as  quickly  as  they  could  and,  as  usual,  most  of 
them  dug  and  sold  their  crop  whenever  they  got 
around  to  it. 
ESTIMATING  CONDITIONS.— If  the  farmers 
could  only  get  a  fairly  good  estimate  of  future  prices 
they  would  undoubtedly  be  in  a  better  position  to 
adopt  a  definite  selling  policy.  They  receive  a  great 
prices  better  than  the  average  man  can  do  it,  he 
must  •  either  have  more  accurate  information  on 
market  conditions,  or  else  he  must  be  able  to  use 
the  available  information  to  better  advantage.  The 
writer  has  calculated  mathematical  formulas,  which 
were  published  in  the  New  Jersey  Department  of 
Agricultural  Bulletin  66,  and  which  should  be  useful 
in  estimating  the  future  price  of  potatoes.  These 
formulas  use  certain  factors  on  which  we  can  get 
information  at  any  time  during  the  shipping  season, 
and  each  factor  is  given  the  weight  it  had  during  the 
last  20  years  in  making  potato  prices.  The  formulas 
were  calculated  to  figure  the  price  of  New  Jersey 
potatoes  on  the  New  York  market.  Of  course  they 
can  also  be  used  to  estimate  the  price  of  other  po¬ 
tatoes  of  like  quality  on  the  market  at  the  same  time. 
The  formulas  follow : 
1926,  442  million  bushels 
L  =  the  value  of  the  dollar  as  expressed  by  the  price 
level  of  all  commodities. 
C  =  correction  for  the  change  in  demand  for  New  Jer¬ 
sey  Cobblers.  Values  for  C  for  the  next  three  years  are: 
1923 —  minus  28  ,  • 
1924—  minus  33 
1925—  minus  -36 
G  —  correction  for  the  change  in  demand  for  New  Jer¬ 
sey  Giants.  Values  for  G -for- the  next  three  years  are: 
1923 —  minus  36  ~ 
1924—  minus  42  t 
1925—  — minus  48 
THE  THEORY  OF  STATISTICS.— How  do  we 
arrive  at  formulas  like  this?.  Perhaps  we  had  better 
not  get  too  deep  into;  the  theory  of  statistics,  but 
the  general  method  might-  be  interesting.  You  can’t 
go  out  and  dig  up  a  formula  like  this,  and  you  can’t 
even  get  one  by  just  trying  everything  until  you  hap¬ 
pen  to  hit  on  something  that  seems  to  work  pretty 
