1414 
The  RURAL.  NEW-YORKER 
well.  Yoa  must  have  a  definite  method  to  work 
with.  These  formulas  were  made  by  eliminating  as 
many  factors  as  possible,  and  then  by  taking  one 
factor  at  a  time,  finding  just  how  much  influence 
that  factor  has  had  on  prices  over  a  period  of  years. 
INFLUENCE  OF  PRODUCTION.*—' The  most  im¬ 
portant  factor  influencing  the  prices  of  farm  prod¬ 
ucts  is  the  amount  of  those  products  produced  and 
put  on  the  market.  Anybody  can  get  the  estimates 
of  potato  production  published  by  the  United  States 
Department  of  Agriculture.  If  we  all  start  with  this 
figure  as  a  basis  for  our  guesses  on  future  prices  we 
all  start  even.  Yet  how  near  do  we  come  to  getting 
the  same  results?  Anyone  knows  that  a  small  crop 
is  likely  to  make  a  high  price,  and  that  a  large  crop 
will  hurt  the  market.  But  how  high  will  the  price 
go?  Or  how  much  will  it  drop?  If  the  crop  is  a 
little  short,  and  potatoes  are  high  when  my  crop  is 
ready,  will  they  go  higher,  or  should  I  sell  now?  In 
order  to  get  an  idea  of  the  influence  of  the  produc¬ 
tion  of  potatoes  on  the  price  in  New  York  we  must 
go  back  over  a  period  of  years  to  look  up  the  history 
of  prices  and  production.  We  will  find  that  potato 
production  has  increased  steadily  during  the  last  20 
years.  This  increase  is  a  little  greater  than  the  in¬ 
crease  in  population.  If  we  figure  the  trend  of  po¬ 
tato  production  during  these  years  we  can  find  out 
how  much  difference  it  made  to  the  price  of  potatoes 
when  the  production  was  above  or  below  this  trend. 
AVERAGE  PRICES. — Next  we  look  up  the  whole¬ 
sale  prices  of  New  Jersey  potatoes  during  the  last 
20  years,  and  find  the  average  price  for  each  season. 
This  average  price  is  then  adjusted  to  remove  the  dis¬ 
turbing  factor  of  the  changing  value  of  the  dollar, 
as  expressed  by  the  index  number  for  the  general 
level  of  wholesale  prices.  Now  these  adjusted  prices 
are  as  near  as  we  can  get  to  what  prices  would  have 
been  if  the  general  price  level  had  been  the  same 
during  the  whole  period.  We  now  know  that  prices 
have  been  associated  with  various  amounts  of  pro¬ 
duction  in  the  past.  We  could  stop  here,  and  still 
have  learned  something  valuable.  But  we  can  go 
further.  We  can  analyze  these  figures  and  find  accu¬ 
rately  the  relation  between  pi-oduction  during  the 
period.  Statisticians  have  worked  out  methods  for 
finding  the  correlation  between  variables.  By  using 
standardized  methods  it  is  thus  possible  to  compute 
the  relation  between  the  production  and  price  of 
potatoes.  This  relation  expressed  as  a  formula  is : 
1 
Average  adjusted  price  of  Cobblers  =  - 
.001472  X  +  .555 
1 
Average  adjusted  price  of  Giants  =  - 
.00189  X  +  .605 
This  is  as  close  as  we  can  come  to  a  mathematical 
formula  which  will  give  us  the  relation  between  the 
two  variables — production  and  price.  If  we  work 
out  the  formula  on  any  one  year  by  substituting  for 
X  the  difference  between  that  year’s  production  and 
the  trend  of  production  we  will  not  get  the  exact 
price,  but  we  will  come  fairly  close  to  it  on  the  av¬ 
erage. 
AVERAGING  VALUES. — The  formula  as  it  now 
stands  estimates  prices  too  high  at  the  beginning  and 
the  end  of  the  20  years  studied,  and  gives  us  too  low 
prices  in  the  middle  of  the  period.  We  assume  that 
this  error  is  caused  by  a  change  in  demand.  We  can 
calculate  the  trend  of  this  error  and  add  a  correc¬ 
tion  to  the  formula.  Now  we  have  our  formula 
complete.  The  average  high  school  boy  can  learn 
to  use  it  with  a  little  practice.  The  figures  necessary 
are  available  for  everybody.  All  we  have  to  do  is  to 
substitute  the  proper  values,  multiply  and  divide, 
and  we  all  will  get  the  same  result,  or  else  we  ought 
not  to  have  passed  Elementary  Algebra  I.  But  sup¬ 
pose  we  can  figure  it  out?  How  do  we  know  that  it 
will  work?  Well,  we  don’t.  But  we  can  say  that 
by  using  it  we  can  figure  theoretical  prices  which 
we  can  match  against  actual  prices  received  during 
the  last  20  years,  and  that  our  result  will  show  an 
average  error  of  only  9  per  cent.  We  find  that  the 
average  error  in  estimating  the  price  of  Cobblers  is 
9.7  per  cent,  and  for  Giants  8.5  per  cent — that  is  an 
error  of  8.7  cents  a  bushel  for  Cobblers  and  7  cents 
a  bushel  for  Giants.  Unless  we  should  have  some 
disturbing  factor,  such  as  a  sudden  decrease  in  de¬ 
mand.  enter  the  scene  now.  we  would  expect  the  for¬ 
mula  to  give  as  good  results  this  year  or  next  year. 
GOOD  GUESSING. — An  old  potato  buyer  told  me 
the  other  day  that  you  can’t  possibly  predict  a  price 
on  anything.  Yet  in  the  case  of  wheat  we  find  that 
there  are  thousands  of  men  who  think  they  can 
make  a  good  guess.  They  are  willing  to  risk  their 
money  on  their  opinion.  We  find  the  same  thing  in 
the  ease  of  the  other  grains  and  in  cotton.  Men 
spend  all  of  their  time  in  studying  the  conditions  of 
these  crops,  and  their  guesses  at  future  prices  are 
usually  fairly  accurate.  There  are  not  so  many 
actual  predictions  of  prices  on  fruits  and  vegetables. 
Prices  are  not  as  stable.  The  price  of  New  Jersey 
potatoes  dropped  a  dollar  a  sack  in  New  York  over 
the  week  end  at  one  time  this  season.  A  temporary 
shortage  might  send  them  sky-high. 
GOODS  IN  STORAGE. — Regardless  of  this  diffi¬ 
culty  there  are  many  large  storage  houses  in  Jersey, 
and  in  Ivaw  Valley,  and  in  Aroostook  County,  which 
are  filled  to  the  limit  each  year  with  potatoes,  sweet 
potatoes,  eggs,  onions,  and  other  farm  products. 
They  are  full  because  somebody  thinks  he  knows  the 
prices  of  these  commodities  will  go  up.  The  old 
November  17,  1925 
acre  of  any  variety.  For  seed  we  have  always 
planted  in  rows  (generally  28  in.)  and  cultivated, 
but  we  are  getting  to  prefer  the  solid  seeding  more 
and  more.  It  takes  more  seed  in  planting,  but  is 
much  more  easily  handled,  also  is  much  better  on 
the  ground,  as  it  gets  the  nitrogen  scattered  all  over 
the  ground  instead  of  just  in  the  rows,  and  we  ean 
bring  ground  up  to  a  high  state  of  fertility  quicker. 
In  sowing  solid  for  seed  we  use  from  1  to  I  14  bu. 
per  acre  depending  on  variety. 
The  selection  of  wrong  varieties,  poor  seed,  poor 
iuoeulation,  too  deep  seeding,  are  some  of  the  things 
that  have  caused  failure  and  discouragement  to 
some  men  with  Soy  beans.  We  certainly  advise 
everyone  to  plant  Soy  beans  in  some  way  or  other. 
In  corn  to  hog  off  or  turn  slice])  on,  a  man  wants  an 
early  maturing  yellow  bean;  for  hay,  most  any  va¬ 
riety,  depending  on  soil  conditions;  for  silage,  a 
large  late  maturing  variety.  We  plant  beans  with 
our  corn  and  cut  with  binder  and  shredder.  The 
beans  help  the  corn  by  supplying  nitrogen,  keep 
down  weeds,  and  make  better  feed.  The  varieties 
we  are  growing  this  year  are  Manchu,  Mid-West, 
Wilson,  Virginia,  and  Peking.  We  think  these  va¬ 
rieties  answer  all  purposes  on  all  kinds  of  soil;  not 
to  say  but  Avhat  there  are  other  varieties  just  as 
good  for  some  purposes,  but  these  answer  all  con¬ 
ditions  better.  Sidney  myser. 
Ohio. 
Actual  and  calculated  prices  of  New  Jersey  Cobblers. 
The  prices  shown  represent  the  average  price  from 
August  to  December  per  150-lb.  sack  on  the  New 
York  market.  The  difference  between  the  actual  and 
calculated  prices  gives  a  good  idea  of  the  amount  of 
accuracy  to  be  expected  by  the  use  of  the  formula. 
potato  buyer  was  undoubtedly  sincere  in  saying  that 
nobody  can  predict  prices.  Yet  he  *  predicts  them 
every  day.  He  watches  the  market  carefully,  and 
buys  when  conditions  look  right,  and  when  the  mar¬ 
ket  begins  to  look  a  little  sick  he  gets  from  under. 
It  has  been  stated  by  some  people  that  when  the 
larger  part  of  the  goods  in  storage  are  in  the  hands 
of  dealers  prices  are  likely  to  rise,  and  that  when 
the  farmers  own  most  of  them  we  can  expect  a  fall¬ 
ing  market.  There  is  probably  some  truth  in  this — 
not  because  the  dealers  can  manipulate  prices  when 
they  control  a  large  part  of  the  goods,  but  because 
the  dealers  are  in  a  better  position  to  understand 
market  conditions,  and  they  refuse  to  buy  on  a  poor 
prospect,  thus  leaving  the  farmers  to  hold  the  bag. 
New  Jersey.  Frederick  v.  waugh. 
(To  Be  Continued) 
Experience  With  Soy  Beans 
OUR  first  experience  with  Soy  beans  was  about 
14  years  ago,  when  a  neighbor  started  to  grow 
them.  He  put  out  a  large  acreage  and  then  was 
unable  to  harvest  them,  so  he  gave  us  half  of  what 
we  could  gather.  Then  he  had  no  way  to  thrash 
them,  so  we  built  a  machine  out  of  a  clover-huller 
and  thrashed  his  crop,  and  also  our  share.  Then 
with  this  start  we  began  growing  a  few  each  year. 
The  only  variety  we  had  was  the  Maryland  Green, 
which  was  a  poor  variety,  and  as  we  knew  nothing 
about  inoculation  in  those  days  we  had  rather  poor 
luck,  so  we  dropped  the  beans  for  a  few  years,  un- 
H arresting  Squashes.  Fig.  624 
til  we  learned  a  little  more  about  the  crop.  We 
have  been  having  good  results,  but  are  still  learn¬ 
ing,  like  everybody  who  raises  Soy  beans. 
Our  crop  in  the  main  is  seed,  as  we  have  our  grain 
separator  equipped  to  thrash  beans,  and  all  of  our 
own  machinery  to  handle  a  seed  crop.  We  also 
plant  a  few  to  turn  the  cows  on  in  the  Fall,  when 
the  pasture  is  short  and  dry.  Tt  brings  the  milk 
flow  back  to  the  Spring  grass  time.  For  this  we 
sow  solid,  same  as  oats,  about  1  to  iy2  bu.  per 
The  Trade  in  Christmas  Greens 
Would  you  give  information  about  getting  sale  for 
about  100  Christmas  trees  (small  hemlock)  growing 
on  my  place?  4 hey  average  between  six  and  eight 
feet  in  height  I  see  by  The  R.  N.-Y.  that  there  will 
be  a  demand  for  such  this  \\  inter.  Do  companies  send 
trucks  for  them  or  do  we  have  to  deliver?  About  what 
price  can  one  expect  for  trees  that  size’  G  t 
New  York.  '  • 
TT  EM  LOCKS  are  not  readily  salable  for  Christ- 
*  A  mas  trees;  they  are  sometimes  shipped  in  but 
meet  little  demand.  Spruce  is  the  standard  for 
this  purpose.  There  is,  however,  a  regular  demand 
for  hemlock  branches  for  cemetery  use;  they  are 
used  to  cover  new  graves,  for  Christmas  decoration, 
laid  flat  upon  the  grave,  or  to  protect  ivy  in  an 
exposed  situation.  For  this  purpose  the  branches 
are  neatly  packed  into  bales  of  about  100  lbs.  They 
must  be  unbroken,  but  not  heavy  old  branches  that 
would  be  too  woody.  It  would  seem  likely  that 
the  blanches  from  these  little  trees,  cut  from  the 
central  pole,  would  be  desirable  for  this  purpose. 
Prices  vary  from  year  to  year,  and  it  is  not  pos¬ 
sible  to  tell  them  in  advance.  Some  seasons  when 
there  is  a  glut  of  Christmas  trees  and  a  shortage 
of  cemetery  material,  many  trees  are  cut  up  for 
this  purpose.  Some  of  the  hemlock  is  made  up  into 
wreaths  when  demand  justifies  it,  but  this  is  usually 
done  by  florists  with  a  large  cemetery  trade,  in 
combination  with  immortelles,  or  in  laying  out 
decorations  for  cemetery  plots.  These  (hemlock 
branches  are  not  purely  Christmas  greens.  In 
October  one  of  the  dealers  in  florists’  greens  ad¬ 
vertised  hemlock,  “large  bu  " 
Holly  and  the  little  Lycopodium  commonly  called 
ground  pine  lead  in  Christmas  greens,  but  the  ground 
pine  is  not  so  seasonal  as  the  holly,  being  sold  from 
Autumn  on  through  the  Winter.  It  is  put  up  in 
bales,  and  sold  in  the  Fall  at  an  average  of  12  cents 
per  lb.  Holly  is  essentially  a  Christmas  green,  and 
its  value  depends  on  the  berries.  Well-berried 
sprays  bring  the  highest  price.  It  is  shipped  in 
ventilated  crates  about  4x2x2  ft,  or  thereabouts. 
It  is  practically  unsalable  after  Christmas,  and  con¬ 
signments  reaching  the  market  Christmas  week  sell 
poorly,  unless  extra  fine,  or  sold  direct  to  the  con¬ 
sumer.  Most  of  the  holly  comes  from  Maryland. 
Delaware  and  Virginia,  though  we  get  some  from 
Southern  New  Jersey.  A  great  variety  of  ever¬ 
green  material  comes  from  farther  south,  forming 
an  important  branch  of  the  florists’  supply  trade 
all  the  year  round. 
Laurel  branches  sold  in  Fall  for  50  cents  the 
bundle,  and  laurel  rope  for  7  cents  per  yard.  There 
is  a  good  deal  of  rope  or  festooning  made  of  ground 
pine,  and  the  large  operators  use  a  festoon- winding 
machine  for  making  it. 
Wreaths,  which  vary  greatly  in  price,  are  made 
of  holly,  laurel  and  standing  pine,  with  various 
berries,  especially  those  of  bittersweet  and  wild 
allspice.  Some  are  made  up  in  the  cities,  but  there 
is  more  profit  where  they  can  be  made  up  by  cheaper 
labor  in  rural  communities.  Prices  for  florists’ 
greens  are  stabilized  by  steady  demand  and  regular 
channels  for  distribution,  but  so  many  elements 
enter  into  the  market  for  Christmas  greens  that 
prices  cannot  be  predicted  far  in  advance.  Con¬ 
signors  should  always  make  arrangements  in  ad- 
