140 
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American Agriculturist, February 17, 1923 
The March of Events in the Rhidr 
{Continued from jiage 135) 
she has been deserted, even betrayed, 
by those upon whom she naturally 
would have almost completely relied? 
. Reasons for the Invasion 
As to the reasons why France went 
the I^uhr, the first and most direct 
which she advanced was that she could 
thus collect the profits of the German 
mines, factories and railways and also 
could impose a special tax on things 
which went from the Ruhr into Ger¬ 
many. The fir.st object has already 
failed. It never seemed it would work. 
You cannot substitute for the normal 
economic control of a vast and in¬ 
tricate machine such as the Ruhr, a 
foreign military control without turn¬ 
ing profit into a loss. Business men 
know that the line between profit and 
loss is very narrow. It was certain 
from the beginning that whatever else 
the occupation did it would not bring 
income from industry or taxation. 
The second reason was the bringing 
of pressure to bear on the German 
Government and German industrialists 
to do what they had failed to do with¬ 
out pressure. This, too, I think will 
fail first, because the country is now 
in such a state that no amount of 
coercion can force her to pay sub¬ 
stantial money payments, and second, 
because German industrialists have put 
their funds outside Germany and can¬ 
not be forced to bi'ing them back. 
Taking these points up in order, we 
consider first the economic condition 
of the country. Casual travelers say 
that Germany is prosperous; that 
workers are busy, employers piling up 
dividends and evidences of luxurious 
living are everywhere. The prosperity 
of Germany is a mockery, however, 
for it is based upon fundamental weak¬ 
ness, as evidenced by the dramatic de¬ 
cline of the mark within the last few 
years. One of the reasons for the ap¬ 
parent wealth is that no German is 
saving money. The continuing fall of 
the mark means that money saved 
ceases to exist; therefore everybody 
is buying goods which, at the end of 
a few months, will still have value. 
With everybody selling marks and no¬ 
body buying them, it is inevitable that 
they should reach the vanishing point. 
Germany is going the way of Austria 
and Russia. 
So far as the industrialists are con¬ 
cerned, Stinnes and others upon whom 
Prance wishes to bring pressure will 
avoid payment, because their funds are 
outside Germany and they cannot be 
forced to bring them back. Sir Robert 
Horne, the English economist, recently 
said that there was only one condition 
under which these German credits, 
which may amount to from two to four 
billion of dollars, now placed in Hol¬ 
land, Great Britain and the United 
States, could be brought back and 
made a source of reparations; that is, 
by making Germany so prosperous that 
the industrialists would be paid to 
bring them back. There is no other 
way except confiscation, which under 
modern arrangements of international 
relations, is impossible. 
Dangerous Security 
The third reason for going into the 
Ruhr was security. As long as France 
holds the Ruhr, the French argue, Ger¬ 
many at least will bei helpless. This is 
true, but it is dangerous to France, be¬ 
cause if she continues to hold the Ruhr 
indefinitely, the chances are that not 
merely will the mild resistance by sa¬ 
botage, strikes and passive obstruc¬ 
tion continue, but there will be a seri¬ 
ous condition of social, economic and 
political upheaval in Germany, which 
might easily result in complete dis¬ 
solution of what we know as Germany. 
France might say, “We can stand it 
as long as the Germans can,” but how 
long will Great Britain and the United 
States stand it? Britain’s stake in the 
recovery is not merely idealstic or polit- 
cal—she must feed her people and 
avoid starvation for her workers. If 
France’s actions point toward a break¬ 
up of Central Europe, I believe Britain 
would check the French game. How, 
I would not venture to suggest, but I 
have confidence in the British sound¬ 
ness of judgment and willingness to 
be guided rather by intelligence and 
common sense than by passions and 
hopes. So even security will be a rather 
doubtful issue for France. 
This may end in failure and with¬ 
drawal of the troops, or in partial 
success, and withdrawal, but more 
probably the result will be part failure 
and part success and will lead to a con¬ 
tinuance of the occupation until both 
Germany and Europe as a whole suffer 
seriously. The danger lies in the fact, 
that continued pressure might so en-^ 
courage the enervating and dissolving 
forces in the German body politic, that, 
it would bring about a situation in Gei’o 
ipany like that in Southeastern Ruronc 
and Russia. ' 
Two Problems Remain Unsolved 
Quite aside from the result of tho 
occupation, two major problems wil! 
remain unsolved—reparations and in¬ 
ter-allied debts. The whole matter ia 
so complex and involved that no human 
being can understand it, much less sug¬ 
gest a formula to solve it. All we can 
do is to put our finger on one or two 
obvious obstacles to .lormal recovery. 
Two which are checking the natural 
curative forces which should be freed 
to work effectively against those of dis- 
integration are the questions of what 
Germany owes the Allies, and what the 
Allies owe each other. 
The problem of reparations has been 
bedevilled for the last four years by 
the settlement at Paris. The basis 
mistake was the fixing of a sum for 
Germany to pay, which was three times 
what rational people thought she could 
pay. This happened because of the 
war psychology in France, which would 
see no diminution of the claims against 
Germany, and also because at the 
last moment President Wilson was per¬ 
suaded to include two items which had 
no legal basis—pensions and separa¬ 
tion alIowance;s. This trebled the bill, 
making it a /fantastic sum which at 
once destroyed German credit and 
weakened the German desire to pay. 
And, even worse, the portion which 
France was to receive was reduced 
from 76 per cent to about 50 per cent. 
That is the story in brief- of the 
failure of the peace-makers. Politicians 
have been trying to undo the effects 
ever since, but with little success. 
Mr. Hughes suggested in New Haven 
that France consent to the appoint¬ 
ment of an international committee of 
experts, to treat Germany as a bank¬ 
rupt, determine her assets and find out 
what she could pay on a business and 
not a political basis. France courte- 
^sly refused. The French thought Mr. 
Hughes’ proposal one-sided and illogical 
because in the same address he an¬ 
nounced that we would treat France and 
her debt on a political and not a busi¬ 
ness basis. The French pointed out the 
relation between Germany’s obligations 
to France and those of France to us. 
America Must Face Facts 
Until we are prepared as a people 
and as a Government to face the facts, 
that we must deal with the Allied debts 
I? the same way that we expect 
Allies to deal with the obligations 
to them, we cannot be much use in the 
European situation. 
Do we prefer to pay the price of in-* 
creasing isolation or that of cooperation 
with Europe? Ex-Governor Lowden of 
Illinois, says that the price of isolation 
is 30 per cent of our wheat fields turned 
back to prairie, 20 per cent of our 
corn fields turned back, 50 per cent of 
our cotton fields turned back into south¬ 
ern forests and our commercial life 
completely disorganized and in large 
part destroyed. This is the price of 
isolation which, if you like, you may 
pay. Ihe alternative is international 
cooperation, with the United States as¬ 
suming some measure of responsibility 
foi peace and order. This is the simple 
question facing us to-day. We are 
ruiming away from it rather than de¬ 
ciding it. 
The question is, shall we stand aside 
and offer elaborate explanations why 
proposal cannot succeed or 
shall we take a chance, dare to say to 
our people some things they do not like, 
and^ assume on the part of Americans 
an intelligent, sympathetic and a gen- 
particularly a courageous 
attitude toward Europe. Courage seems 
to me the one thing now-a-days which 
matters most. 
