I 
American Agriculturist 
FARM—DAIRY—MARKET—GARDEN—HOME 
“Agriculture is the Most Healthful, Most Useful and Most Noble Employment of Man ” —Washington 
Reg. U. S, Pat. Off. Established 1842 
Volume 111 For the Week Ending March 10, 1923 Number 10 
The Handwriting on the Hay Market Wall 
How Shall We Reorganize Our Business To Meet the Decreased Demand ? 
T imothy hay has for years been one 
of our best cash crops in the North¬ 
eastern States. Our cool climate, 
abundant rainfall, and natural grass 
soils make this region a great pasture and 
hay region. The acreage of tillable land, 
however, will support a mpch larger live¬ 
stock population than our pastures will feed 
through the summer, so we normally raise 
a surplus of hay. Moreover, we 
have at our doors the great East¬ 
ern cities that need our surplus 
hay for their horses. 
Hay Is a bulky product. A car¬ 
load ordinarily contains only ten 
or twelve tons. The cost of ship¬ 
ping a ton of hay even a short 
distance is very high compared 
with its value. For this reason 
,hay cannot be shipped long dis¬ 
tances without the freight eating 
up the entire value of the prod¬ 
uct. Freight rates for many 
years have been a protective wall, 
preventing Western hay from 
competing with Eastern hay in the Eastern 
markets. 
For some years, just previous to and dur¬ 
ing the World War, hay was one of our best 
cash crops. Cost-account studies on farms 
year after year showed hay making a larger 
profit per hour of man labor than any other 
general farm crop. The one big drawback 
to the hay business was that a farmer could 
only make hay for about six weeks out of 
the year. 
Now, for the past few years hay has been 
low-priced. Is this a mere temporary condi¬ 
tion or are we faced with an era of low- 
priced hay? 
In the winter of 1911-12 farmers sold hay 
up-State for $18 per ton; 
in 1912-13 hay sold for 
only $12 per ton on the 
same farms. This was 
largely due to a difference 
in rainfall during the 
growing season, with a 
consequent difference in 
the yield per acre. The 
yield of hay per acre in 
New York in 1911 was 
1.02 tons, while in 1912 
it was 1.25 tons. 
Horses in Cities are 
Decreasing 
Is our present low hay 
price the result of a good 
yield per acre, or is there 
something more back of 
it? A large proportion of 
our salable hay has al¬ 
ways gone to feed horses 
cities. It is probably 
this proportion of our hay 
which has fixed the price 
of the product. 
From 1909 to 1919 the 
By C. E. LADD 
number of horses in cities in New York State 
decreased 53 per cent, according to the United 
States Census. More than half of the city 
horses were replaced by automobiles or trucks 
in this ten-year period. Some men, however, 
have stated that the change from horses to 
trucks stopped in 1919, and that since that 
date horses have increased in cities. It is 
always dangerous to generalize from a few 
observations, because we are so liable to ob¬ 
serve the unusual rather than the usual thing. 
The only available figures to show changes 
in horse population since 1919 are the re¬ 
ports of the New York City Bureau of Health, 
which makes a periodical census of the horses 
in that city. This report indicates that horses 
in New York City decreased still further 
from 1919 to 1921. If the same amount of 
decrease took place in the other cities, then 
we had only 40 per cent as many horses in 
cities in 1921 as we had in 1909. This is a 
tremendous change and must result in a 
greatly lessened demand for hay. 
What are we as hay producers going to do 
about it? Our hay market will be good 
again only when the available supply of 
salable hay is decreased until it just about 
equals this lessened demand. Shall we carry 
along an unprofitable business year after 
year, consoling ourselves each year with the 
hope that some day the market will be bet¬ 
ter? Or shall we make a reorganization of 
our cropping system so as to 
adjust supply to demand at once 
and get our hay production on a 
profitable basis again? The first 
method calls for a slow starving 
out until the final adjustment 
comes. The second method calls 
for an intelligent change in our 
cropping system at once which 
should give quick results. 
What Can We Raise in Place of Hay? 
For the general farmer who 
has made his hay sale only a 
minor part of his business, the 
change is comparatively easy. A 
slight increase in live stock may use up the 
surplus hay. A slight increase in other cash 
crops and a shortening of the rotation by 
plowing up sod ground one year earlier than 
usual will make a sufficient change. 
This period of low hay prices should re¬ 
sult in shortening our average rotation period 
and should result in a great deal of poor hay 
being plowed under as a green manure crop. 
This may result in increased soil fertility and 
better crop production per acre. 
In northern New York, along the St. Law¬ 
rence River, and in various other sections 
of the State there are considerable areas of 
heavy clay land which are well adapted for 
practically no crops except hay and oats. A 
large proportion of this 
land is tillable, and the 
permanent pasture is lim¬ 
ited in area. Probably 
the salable hay of the fu¬ 
ture will be produced in 
such regions. It is quite 
likely, however, that they 
too will need to decrease 
their production of hay 
for sale and build up some 
other farm sale to take 
its place. Until the ad¬ 
justment in hay acreage 
comes, it will probably be 
necessary for these heavy 
clay regions to shift their 
type of farming or else go 
through a period of very 
low profits. 
These clay lands do not 
have much opportunity 
for change. About the 
only possibility open to 
them is to increase their 
live-stock enterprises, 
chiefly dairy cattle. This 
{Continued on page 215) 
Shall we grow clover In place of timothy, raising more home-grown grains and proteins to 
replace purchased feeds? 
TABLE SHOWING DECREASE IN THE NUMBER OF HORSES IN 
CITIES AND ON FARMS IN NEW YORK STATE SINCE 1909 
CENSUS PERIOD 
Number of horses in cities in New York State, 1909 
» » » » » 1929 
Number •of horses in New York City, 1917 . 
” ” ” ” 1917 . . . 
” ” ” ” 1921 . . . 
Number of horses on farms in New York State. 1909 
« ” ” » ” 1921 
303,256 
141,648 
108,036 
75,740 
65.126 
717,000 
520,000 
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