American Agriculturist, March 31,1923 
289 
Are Hog Producers Overdoing It? 
All Si^ns Point to a New High Record of Production During 1923 
A RE hog producers overdoing r Are 
they exceeding the limits of safety 
in expanding the hog industry? Is 
1 ^ fho period in the last two years, in 
which it has been highly profitable to con¬ 
vert corn and other feeds into pork, to be 
succeeded by one in which the conversion 
process will show a loss? 
To form an intelligent answer to these 
questions we need to consider: 
The rate of increase of hog production; 
the trend of demand, both domes¬ 
tic and export, for pork and laid; . 
the outlook for feed costs. 
sale of surplus brood sows would add ma¬ 
terially to the supply of hog product. On 
the whole, it is doubtful if actual produc¬ 
tion of pork and lard will increase more 
than 10 per cent. 
If the increase in hog production takes 
place as indicated, what are the prospects 
that the demand will expand enough to ab¬ 
sorb it without causing unremunerative 
prices? A five-year average shows that 18 
per cent of our pork, including lard, has 
High Poii^t ill 1922 
Pork production in 1922 reached 
the highest point in the history of 
the industry. Such is the showing 
made by the annual estimates of 
the United States Department of 
Agriculture, which take into ac¬ 
count both slaughter under Fed¬ 
eral inspection in the principal 
packing houses and the unin¬ 
spected local and farm slaughter. 
Average weights per head which 
vary in different years, also are 
given consideration. ' ■' 
The total output of pork and 
lard in each of the last five years, according 
to the Department’s estimates, was as follows: 
1992. 11,492,000,000 pounds 
1921. 10,570,000,000 
1920. 10,215,000,000 “ 
1919.....11,022,000,000 “ 
1918. 10,869,000,000 “ 
All signs point to a new high record in 
production during 1923. For example, the 
number of hogs slaughtered in the first 
quarter of the year has been running about 
38 per cent larger than in the same period of 
1922. This comparison alone is not entirely 
dependable, however, since slaughter was 
relatively lighter in the early months of 1922 
than in the last three quarters of the year. 
The results of several surveys by the De¬ 
partment of Agriculture also point to a sub¬ 
stantial increase in 1923. The number of 
litters produced in the fall of 1922 was esti¬ 
mated to be 18.6 per cent greater than in 
1921, and an average of 6.1 pigs per litter 
were raised compared with 6 pigs a year 
previous. The number of hogs reported on 
farms on January 1, 1923, was 9.7 per cent 
larger than on the same date last year. And, 
finally, it was estimated several months ago, 
that the number of sows bred or to be bred, 
for spring farrow was 13 per cent greater 
than in the corresponding period of the pre¬ 
vious year. Under the circumstances, it 
seems logical to look for 
an increase of 12 to 15 per 
cent over 1922 in the num¬ 
ber of hogs available for 
slaughter in 1923. 
Farmers Want Market Facts 
O NE of the fundamental principles of American Agriculturist is to 
help our people find better markets for their products. It is 
easier for most farmers to produce better than they can sell. With 
this thought in mind, we believe that we can render no more valuable 
service than to obtain and publish these absolutely reliable fact- 
packed articles like the one on this page which is readable, interest¬ 
ing and, at the same time, an accurate and complete statement of 
the hog market situation. 
What farmers need is not advice, hut facts. Given the facts, they 
can draw their own conclusions. No producer of hogs on a large or 
small scale can help drawing conclusions from the facts in this article, 
which may save him a lot of money.—The Editors. 
been exported and 82 per cent consumed at 
home, illustrating the relative importance 
of demand from the two sources. 
, Domestic Consumption in 1922 Broke Record 
Domestic consumption of pork and lard, 
including federally inspected, local and farm 
slaughter, according to the estimates of the 
Department of Agriculture, ran as follows 
in each of the last five years: 
1922. 
. 9,847,000,000 
pounds 
1921. 
. 9,071,000,000 
ii 
1920.. 
. 8,740,000,000 
U 
1919. 
. 8,546,000,000 
U 
1918. 
. 8,407,000,000 
tc 
In 1922, domestic consumption reached the 
highest point on record and was 8.5 per cent 
greater than in 1921 which, in turn, was 
practically the largest ever known. Can it 
be increased an additional 10 or possibly 15 
per cent in 1923? 
It is probable that most of the variation in 
domestic consumption from year to year 
takes place in the towns and cities as it is 
generally believed that farmers feed them¬ 
selves first and sell what they have left. The 
statistics seem to bear out that idea. For 
example, the uninspected local and farm 
slaughter, in which the latter is about 8 
times as important as the former, has in¬ 
creased only around 5 per cent in the last 
Factors that May Help 
Various modifications 
may occur in the actual 
working out of the situa¬ 
tion. Bad weather in the 
farrowing season may cut 
down the spring pig crop. 
A cholera epidemic may 
reduce the number grown 
out. Lower prices as com¬ 
pared with corn may di¬ 
minish the amount of 
pork produced by stimu¬ 
lating early selling at 
lighter weights. This is 
especially likely to occur. 
On the other hand, if 
growers should start to 
curtail production,> the 
fifteen years, which is about equal to the in¬ 
crease in the rural population. Domestic 
consumption of pork and lard slaughtered 
under federal inspection, on the other hand, 
has increased nearly 30 per cent in those 
fifteen years, which is in fairly close propor¬ 
tion to the growth in urban population. 
If our analysis on this point is correct, 
two important conclusions follow: 
1. The prospective increase of 10 to 15 per 
cent in hog production for the industry as a 
whole will mostly be sent to the 
chief markets and the product 
must be consumed mostly in the 
towns and cities so far as it is 
used in this country. That means 
an increase of 15 or 20 per cent 
in the quantity going into these 
channels. 
2. The domestic demand for 
the pork and lard from hogs 
reaching the main market cen¬ 
ters, varies from year to year 
largely with city buying power. 
If-the present era of business 
and industrial expansion con¬ 
tinues through most of this year 
and perhaps into next year, as 
■ there is some reason to believe it 
will do, the buying power of city 
consumers should be higher on the average 
than in 1922. It is possible to see how city 
consumption might expand enough to absorb 
the prospective increase in pork production. 
Of course, the public may have been eat¬ 
ing its fill of pork in 1922. Perhaps more 
would not be cared for even if the ability to 
purchase it existed. Then there is the in¬ 
creased output of beef, lamb, poultry, and 
even eggs and cheese, all of which, compete 
more or less with pork. It looks like a large 
order and we may need an “Eat more every¬ 
thing” advertising campaign. 
Southern States Offer Grood Market 
Besides the demand in towns and cities, 
the Southern States are big buyers of hog 
products from the principal packing centers. 
High prices for cotton give assurance that 
this section will buy more freely than in 
1922. At the same time, the reduction in the 
output of cottonseed oil as a result of two 
light cotton crops has made the lard situa¬ 
tion exceptionally strong in spite of enor¬ 
mous production in the last five months. 
Looking ahead in the export trade in hog 
products is like trying to peer through the 
proverbial darkness of the inside of a cow. 
In 1922 exports were slightly smaller than 
in 1921 but the loss was less than 10 per cent 
and the yearly total was 50 per cent above 
the average of the years 
immediately preceding the 
war. 
Our Best Market Crippled 
Germany, our chief cus¬ 
tomer for lard, is crippled 
by the French occupation 
of her chief industrial 
region. German marks 
are, so debased in value 
that they are handled in 
carload lots. Other Euro¬ 
pean countries are handi¬ 
capped either by industrial 
depression and unemploy¬ 
ment or by near worthless 
currencies. Besides such 
matters, Europe owes us 
much money and must sell 
us goods rather than buy, 
in order to pay her debts. 
Finally, the sale of Euro¬ 
pean securities in this 
{Continued on page 292) 
