American Agriculturist 
THE FARM PAPER THAT PRINTS THE FARM NEWS 
“Agriculture is the Most Healthful, Most Useful and Most Noble Employment of Man .”—Washington 
Reg. U. S. Pat. Off. 
Established 1842 
Volume 113 
For the Week Ending July 12, 1924 
Number 2 
The Outlook for Wheat 
What the Wheat Producer May Expect 
AT LAST it can be said with fair assurance that 
f\ the wheat situation has turned in favor of 
f— « producers. For four years, wheat prices 
-L- have been declining and American growers 
have received less than the cost of growing the crop, 
even if they had given the use of their land rent free. 
Widespread distress in the wheat belt with bankruptcy 
for many hard-working farmers has resulted. 
Better days seem to be at hand, however. The 
1924 wheat crop may not pay the full cost of production, 
but it promises to come nearer that point than either 
of the last three crops. 
The heart of the wheat problem has been over¬ 
production. The United States has had too much 
wheat to sell for export in competition with huge 
surpluses from other exporting countries. To make 
matters worse, Europe, the chief buyer, 
has been on the verge of bankruptcy. The . . . 
improvement which seems to be in view is due 
to the following: 
1. The prospect of lighter production both 
in this country and elsew r here. 
2. The surprising disappearance of the 
excess from the large world crops in the past 
By GILBERT GUSLER 
be materially smaller than in the previous year 
when the total amount of wheat taken by import¬ 
ing countries, including European and non-European, 
was the largest on record. World’s shipments, which 
are the best current measure of international trade in 
wheat, and which amounted to about 700 million 
bushels in the year ending July 31, 1923, promised to 
show at least a moderate reduction. On the other side 
of the market equation was the huge, world’s surplus 
of 860 million bushels already referred to. The outlook 
for'wheat prices, therefore, appeared extremely gloomy. 
As time passed, however, purchases of wheat by 
European countries showed no such falling off as was 
expected because of the increase in its 1923 crop of 
The Facts About Wheat 
year. 
Besides the United States, the chief wheat 
exporting countries are Canada, Argentina, 
Australia, India, Russia and Rumania. From 
the outbreak of the war until a year ago, 
Russia and Rumania, which formerly supplied 
one-third of the wheat entering international 
trade, were practically absent from the ex¬ 
porting list. Foreign needs were supplied, 
however, by increased production elsewhere. 
Greatest expansion occurred in the United 
States. At the maximum in 1919, twenty- ■” == 
eight million acres more were harvested in this 
country than the prewar average. This was an increase 
of 60 per cent. Even in 1923, after several years of 
gradual reduction and with a heavy winter abandon¬ 
ment, we harvested eleven million acres more than pre¬ 
war. Canada increased about twelve million acres. 
While wheat available for export has been abundant 
in each of the last several years, the world's bread-grain 
supply looked particularly ample when the 1923 harvest 
in the northern hemisphere was in progress. To begin 
with, the combined carryover of old-crop wheat in the 
United States, Canada, Argentina, Australia and India 
appeared to be 75 million bushels above normal. The 
new crop in Canada promised 370 million bushels for 
export, the United States, 173 million bushels, India, 
Russia and the Balkans together, 40 million bushels, and 
the new crops in Argentina and Australia looked good 
for 200 million bushels more. This made a total of 
785 million bushels, to which could be added the excess 
carryover of 75 million bushels, or 860 million bushels 
altogether. From the standpoint of prices, Argentina 
made the statistical balance sheet look worse by coming 
through with a record harvest in January. 
Appraisal of the prospective demand ten 
months ago furnished but few crumbs of 
comfort. The chief wheat-importing area in 
western and central Europe, which has a big 
industrial population that cannot be fed from 
the limited local land area devoted to wheat, 
was suffering from industrial depression, 
varying in degree from country to country, 
but with the general level of industrial 
activity only about 60 to 70 per cent, of pre¬ 
war. Obviously, their current income would 
not suffice to maintain the pre-war level of 
consumption and their credit with the 
storekeepers of the world seemed to be run¬ 
ning out. 
Furthermore, the wheat crop in Europe in 
1923, exclusive of Russia, was estimated at 240 
million bushels more than in 1922. The rye 
and barley crops also were large. The natural 
conclusion was that European needs would 
this page is another one of those fact articles, 
this time on wheat. It will be of great value to 
both wheat and milk producers. These economic 
surveys which we are passing on to our readers are 
attracting a large amount of attention. They are in 
line with our policy that if a farmer knows the exact 
facts in regard to production and marketing, he can 
draw his own conclusions himself and act accord¬ 
ingly.—The Editors. 
bread grains. Two factors seem to be responsible. 
The 1923 crop of potatoes in Europe was 800 million 
bushels smaller than in the preceding year. In addition 
there is a strong suspicion that the wheat crop in some 
European countries was considerably overestimated.' 
Not only has Europe taken as much or a little'more 
wheat in the last twelve months than in the preceding 
year, but Oriental countries have bought considerably 
more because of a small crop in Manchuria in 1923. 
As a result, the amount of wheat absorbed by all im¬ 
porting countries is setting a new high record. 
Besides the enormous absorption of wheat by ex¬ 
porting countries, the exportable surpluses have dis¬ 
appeared in other ways. Low prices in the United 
States have increased domestic consumption and a 
net export of 125 million bushels has taken care of the 
surplus from our 1923 crop, originally, calculated at 
175 million bushels. Canada shows a similar increase 
in domestic disappearance. Such miscellaneous ex¬ 
porters as India and the Balkans also have not come 
forward with the amounts they were counted upon to 
This graph shows clearly that the 1924 wheat crop will be practically the 
same as the average from 1909-1913. In other words, the crop is back 
to normal. 
furnish. India, particularly, appears inclined only to 
sell abroad when prices are quite attractive. Other¬ 
wise, nearly all of her wheat is consumed at home. 
The net result of all these changes is that the world 
carryover of wheat on August 1 this year will not be 
much different than a year ago. At that time, it ap¬ 
peared that the crop year then starting would see a fur¬ 
ther piling up of unsold wheat in exporting countries. 
The new crops everywhere are still in the lap of the 
gods. Taking things as they stand, there are strong 
indications of lighter production, not only in this country 
but in Canada and in Europe. 
The Department of Agriculture forecasts a crop in 
the United States of 693 million bushels. Not since 
1917 have we harvested a smaller amount. Since 1911 
only two crops have been smaller. Most significant of all 
is the fact that it compares with an average 
■ ■ crop of 690 million bushels from 1909 to 1913. 
It means nearly 100 million bushels less than 
in 1923, and nearly 200 million bushels below 
the average from 1917 to 1922. The reduc¬ 
tion in the crop is due primarily to the smaller 
area planted compared with last year. The 
spring wheat acreage is the smallest since 1900. 
In addition, the condition of the crop was low, 
spring wheat on June 1 making the poorest 
showing ever known for that time of the year. 
Nothing official is available as to the acreage 
in Canada, but good evidence is at hand of a 
reduction of 5 to 10 per cent. The condition 
of the crop is about normal, but growth is 
much behind last year and, in general, there 
is little indication of a duplication of last 
year’s high yield per acre. 
European crop prospects fare hardly as 
===== favorable as a year ago, although but few defi¬ 
nite forecasts as to yields have been made thus 
far. The Chinese crop is as bad as a year ago. Russia 
has increased her acreage materially, but drought is 
reported in parts of the wheat-belt. The German rye 
crop is much less favorable than a year ago. 
Argentina presents a contrast with most of the other 
countries in that an increase of about 10 per cent, is 
expected in the acreage recently planted. If the yield 
per acre is 'not above normal, however, the crop har¬ 
vested next December and January will be smaller 
than the last one. 
We can summarize all these conditions as they ap¬ 
pear at this time in broad terms by saying that the 
prospective carryover on July 1 in various exporting 
countries will be 75 to 100 million bushels less than 
expected eight months ago when the outcome of the 
harvest for 1923 was becoming known. New crop pros¬ 
pects promise considerable less wheat for export than 
has been available for the last twelve months, not only 
in this country blit in other exporting countries. The 
requirements of importing countries will not be much 
less and they may be greater. 
Subsequent changes in weather and crop 
conditions in this country and abroad may 
modify the present outlook either on the side 
of higher production with lower prices or lower 
production with higher prices. There are some 
indications, for example, that the July 1 fore¬ 
cast for the United States will show an increase 
over June. A big European potato crop might 
reduce the amount of wheat needed just as 
the small potato crop seems to have had the 
opposite effect in the past year. But, it will 
require an extremely drastic change to prevent 
wheat prices in the next twelve months from 
averaging higher than in the last twelve. 
So far as the United States alone is concerned, 
if the present crop forecast is fulfilled, the 
calculated surplus after allowing for only a 
normal carryover on July 1,1925, will be about 
100 million bushels. The United States has 
certain well established markets for wheat such 
(Continued on page 32) 
i. 
