American Agriculturist 
THE FARM PAPER THAT PRINTS THE FARM NEWS 
“Agriculture is the Most Healthful, Most Useful and Most Noble Employment of Man .”—Washington 
Reg. U. S. Pat. Off. Established 1842 
Volume 114 For the Week Ending October 11, 1924 Number 15 
The Market Outlook for Small Grains 
Shall I Sell or Hold My Oats, Barley or Rye? 
By GILBERT GUSLER 
A STRONG case can be made out for the 
maintenance of much higher prices for 
oats, rye and barley than prevailed in 
the past year. It is unlikely that the 
advances thus far discount all the strength in the 
outlook for these grains. 
In painting a picture of the market situation 
and outlook for oats, broad strokes can be used 
to advantage. 
First, the crop harvested this year is 14 per 
cent, larger than last year’s production. Likewise, 
it is 14 per cent, more than the amount of oats 
consumed in the United States in the past 12 
months and 240 million bushels, or 20 per cent, 
more than the average domestic consumption in 
the last five years. 
Second, new oats w r ere marketed at 
a record rate late in August and early 
in September, but the period of heavy 
selling direct from -the machine is 
about over and the peak of receipts is 
behind us. Terminal markets were 
practically bare of supplies when the 
movement started and the visible 
supply accumulated thus far does not 
look burdensome. 
Third, while oats prices are about 
10 to 12 cents higher than a year ago, 
they have advanced less than corn. 
Before the war, oats prices at Chicago 
averaged about 75 per cent, as high as 
corn, whereas, at the present time, 
oats are bringing less than half as 
much as corn. 
More Farm Feeding of Oats 
Fourth, the certainty of a small 
corn crop will result in heavier farm 
feeding of oats and some of the com¬ 
mercial demand from dairymen and 
feeders that would go to corn will be diverted to 
oats at the present ratio of prices. 
Fifth, Canada has only a small crop of oats this 
year. She has been furnishing a third to a half 
of the oats bought by importing countries in the 
last few years. This should mean larger exports 
from the United States in the coming year. 
During the last month, export sales of oats have 
been the largest since the war. Oats production 
forecasts from 14 countries outside of the United 
States show a yield of 20.G per cent, less than 
last year. 
In short, the large oats supply in this country 
is offset by the small crop in Canada, the poor 
crop of corn in the United States and the huge 
discount at which oats are now selling below corn. 
Under the circumstances, oats prices logically 
should gain on corn during the coming year. 
Oats-Corn Ratio Below Normal 
However, we should not expe.ct that oats prices 
this year will approach the pre-war ratio with 
corn. To begin with, the supply situation in the 
two grains is entirely different. Also, a long 
distance view of the oats situation shows that the 
acreage in this country was increased during the 
war period when prices were high. Exports were 
unusually large at that time but dropped off 
rapidly when hostilities ceased. In the 1917-1918 
crop year, for example, we exported 135 million 
bushels of oats, whereas in the last 12 months we 
exported only about 9 million bushels. Since 
production has not declined as rapidly as exports, 
it has been necessary to increase domestic con¬ 
sumption in order to dispose of the crops, and this 
could only be done through the stimulation 
brought about by lower prices for oats as compared 
with other feed grains. This has tended to hold 
oats prices at a greater discount below corn than 
in pre-w r ar days. 
Fewer Horses Affect Oats 
Again, the decline in the horse population both 
on the farms and in the cities has had a similar 
effect. Farm consumption of oats by horses has 
fallen off and the feeding demand for oats in cities 
and towns is much smaller than it usecjAo be. In 
Chicago, for example, the number of cars of oats 
bought by dealers each day to take care of the 
city’s feed requirements is much smaller than it 
used to be. 
The increase in the number of dairy cows in the 
oats producing States has partly offset the decline 
in the horse population so far as farm consump¬ 
tion is concerned. Likewise, the steady rise in 
commercial dairying, where shipped-in feeds are 
used extensively, partially, but not fully, counter¬ 
balances the drop in the number of horses at work 
on city streets as a factor in the commercial 
demand for oats. 
Barley Production Centers Change 
During the last fifteen years, the barley acreage 
in the United States has been fairly constant from 
year to year with the exception of part of the war 
period when a substantial increase took place. 
However, a significant change has occurred in the 
chief areas of production. Before the advent of 
prohibition, barley was grown extensively as a 
money crop in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and the 
Dakotas. During the last few years, the acreage 
has declined in those States but has increased 
elsewhere in the Middle West as well as in regions 
where corn and oats do not yield well. Such 
barley is largely fed on the farm wdiere grown 
instead of being sold, so that a smaller percentage 
of our total production is reaching terminal 
markets than before prohibition. 
Manufacturers of near-beers use some barley, 
of course, but the total amount absorbed by them 
is only about one-third of the 50 million bushels 
formerly used by breweries in the United States. 
Exports remain about the same as before. 
v Feed and Malting Demand is Broad 
Conditions affecting prices in the United States 
for the present crop year outline a strong situa¬ 
tion. While prices already are materially higher 
than last year, they seem likely to advance further. 
The outlook for feed barley is colored by the 
prospective shortage in corn, and 
there appears to be a shortage of 
malting barley throughout the world. 
The crop in the United States is 
forecast at 194 million bushels, which 
is 4 million bushels less than last year. 
In the Middle West the crop is fairly 
large, but the tendency will be to use 
it in place of corn. Of the States 
which usually sell large amounts of 
barley on the market, North Dakota 
has the largest crop in several years 
and 14 million bushels more than last 
year. The bulk of our exports of 
barley in recent years has come 
from California because of the low 
ocean freight rate to Europe and the 
desirable malting grade produced in 
that State. California has only-about 
a third of a normal crop this year and 
23 million bushels less than last year. 
The crop is about half as much as is 
usually consumed within the State. 
It will be necessary to haul large 
quantities of other grains overland 
to California if any barley at all is to be spared 
from that State for export this year. 
Buyers Recognize Strong Position 
The world situation, so far as barley is con¬ 
cerned, is summed up in a statement by Broom- 
hall to the effect that “there is nothing cheerful to 
report with regard to the outlook for supplies.’’ 
He is speaking from the standpoint of importers 
and buyers rather than sellers. He had in mind 
both the feeding and malting grades of barley. 
Besides the shortage in the California crop, yields 
are small in other exporting countries. Other 
North African countries have only negligible 
surpluses. India had a good crop but has already 
sold her surplus. Chile has either shipped or con¬ 
tracted practically all she can spare. Canada has 
a short crop, and little is expected from Russia, 
which formerly was the biggest exporter of them 
all. In the importing countries of Europe, supplies 
of old crop barley are small, their new crop pros¬ 
pect is no more than average, and rains during the 
harvest have seriously damaged its quality. 
The situation is most severe so far as malting 
barley is concerned, because of a comparative crop 
failure in practically all the countries producing 
barley of that grade. As a result, choice barley in 
the United States should bring high prices this 
year and should be at more than the usual 
premium over feeding grades. 
(Continued, on page 21$) 
