American Agriculturist 
, THE FARM PAPER THAT PRINTS THE FARM NEWS 
“Agriculture is the Most Healthful, Most Useful and Most Noble Employment of Man .”—Washington 
Reg. U. S. Pat. Off. 
Established 1842 
Volume 114 
For the Week Ending December 13, 1924 
Number 24 
The Lamb and Wool Market Outlook 
If You Keep Sheep or Plan To, Read This Article 
O NE of the classic anecdotes of the stock- 
yards deals with a Texas sheepman who 
sent a trainload of sheep to market a 
number of years ago in one of the 
periods of adversity in the industry. The ship¬ 
ment failed to sell for enough to pay the freight 
and other costs. When the commission firm 
wired to him for money to balance the account, 
the shipper wired back, “Have no money but 
will send another trainload of sheep.” 
The story is extreme, of course, but was 
almost duplicated in the fall of 1921, when a 
shipment of western ewes on one of 
the central markets realized only 35 
cents a head after paying marketing 
costs. Since 1921, the sheep busi¬ 
ness has been looking up. The 
sheepmen have been the princes 
rather than the paupers of the live 
stock markets. 
! Prices Far Above Pre-War 
Fat lambs at Chicago averaged 
$9.85 for the year 1921 . The market 
advanced enough to make an aver¬ 
age of $13.50 in 1922 and 1923. 
Thus far in 1924 it has ruled a trifle 
higher than in 1922 and 1923. The 
average in 1914 was only $8 or but 
little more than half the average 
price of the last 33 months. Lambs 
have been higher priced and much 
more profitable to produce than 
either hogs or beef cattle 
Wool also has been bringing a 
good figure. In the five years before 
the war, farmers received an aver¬ 
age price of 15 to 20 cents for their 
wool. This increased to 60 cents in 
1918 but the deflation period carried 
the wool market down to an average 
of only 16.4 cents for 1921. The market has 
recovered until farm prices averaged 30 cents in 
1922 and 39 cents in 1923, or practically double 
the pre-war figure. 
In the three or four years just before the war, 
our sheep population was relatively high but it 
was declining. Sheep of all ages were being 
thrown on the market and *the largest number 
ever slaughtered in one year was back in 1912. 
High prices during the war caused slight expan¬ 
sion of the industry but the general trend of 
production from 1910 to 1922 was downward. 
On January 1, 1922, fewer sheep were reported 
on farms than in any year since 1878. Likewise, 
there were only two sheep where there had been 
three reported ten or eleven years before. 
In appraising the extent of the decline in 
production resulting from the small sheep popula¬ 
tion compared with 10 or 15 years ago, it is 
important to bear in mind that at that time the 
western ranges had a larger number of wethers 
which could be kept profitably for the sake of 
the fleece alone. Today, the western flocks are 
composed more largely of ewes so that the total 
number of lambs produced for market each year 
hfl.s not declined as much as the decrease in the 
number of sheep kept on farms and ranges might 
indicate. 
The fact that lamb and wool production had 
By GILBERT GUSLER 
dropped to such a low level, combined with 
improved industrial conditions, is the explana¬ 
tion of the strength in the lamb and wool 
market since early in 1922. With the sheepmen 
restored to prosperity, the current of production 
has shifted again and the tendency has been to 
expand once more both on the range and in the 
cornbelt. This is shown by the strong demand 
for breeding ewes in all sections and the increase 
reported in the sheep population. 
The rate of expansion has not been rapid, 
however. About two million head have been 
added to the farm and range sheep population in 
about two years, or a gain of only 6 per cent. 
Since the human population has probably gained 
about 3 per cent in that period, the sheep 
population remains relatively small. Market re¬ 
ceipts have not reflected the increase in produc¬ 
tion except in a very limited way, so that lamb 
prices thus far in 1924 have averaged slightly 
higher than in the corresponding period of either 
of the two preceding years. 
The tendency to increase production leads to 
the conclusion that over the next five years lamb 
prices are likely to take a moderate downward 
trend. The sheep population has begun to gain 
on the human population. Employment con¬ 
ditions and consumer buying power in the cities 
have been about as favorable as could be ex¬ 
pected. It would not be surprising if 1924 
should prove to be the high year in the lamb 
market for a long time to come. 
The change promises to be slow, however, and 
-the sheep and wool grower should be in a position 
of relative advantage for several years. Not 
only are there natural limitations on the rate 
of expansion of sheep production, but there are 
some indications that the public appetite for 
lamb grows a little keener from year to year. 
Then there is enough margin of profit in lamb 
production at present prices that no decline in 
the market sufficient to wipe it all out is likely to 
occur at an early date. 
Factors la Immediate Outlook 
So much for the more distant outlook. The 
situation during the next month or two will be 
dominated by the size of the end-of-the-season 
run from the range states, by the supply of grass 
fat natives from the com belt and by the number 
of “comebacks” from the feeder lambs recently 
taken to the country. 
This year’s western range lamb 
crop was estimated at about three- 
quarters of a million head more than 
last year. The movement out of the 
range states increased although the 
full number shown by the estimate 
does not seem to have put in its 
appearance. The corn belt also had 
a larger lamb crop than last year. 
The peak of the marketing season 
from both sections is already over, 
however, and receipts have dimin¬ 
ished from 35 to 50 per cent in the 
last five or six weeks. Whatever the 
comparison with last year may show, 
the pressure is gradually lifting from 
the lamb market because of this 
seasonal diminution in the supply. 
Small Gain In Winter Feeding 
During the summer when feeder 
lambs first began to go to the 
country, the movement was far in 
excess of last year when the total 
was also large. During September 
and October, however, feeders be¬ 
came less zealous and shipments 
from July 1 to October 18 into seven 
corn belt states from the leading markets were 
1,401,000 head against 1,354,000 head a year 
ago. “Comebacks” from this movement are 
already showing up but, owing to the poor corn 
crop, they are in poor finish and more of them 
than usual must be sent to the country a second 
time before they will be ready for slaughter. 
After the middle of December, fed lambs pre¬ 
dominate in the supply. Based on the move¬ 
ment to the country, market receipts will be 
much the same as, or slightly larger than last 
year. Judging by the ability of the market to 
absorb fat lambs in the last few months, prices 
should work slightly higher than they now are. 
After the first of February, fed lambs from the 
irrigated districts in Colorado and adjacent 
states comprise the bulk of the supply. Early in 
the season, a large number of lambs were con¬ 
tracted for shipment into these districts but it 
remains to be seen just what the total movement 
will be compared with last year. 
Lamb feeding operations are not likely to be so 
profitable this year as they were last because of 
higher feed costs. This factor will be offset to 
some extent, however, by the slightly lower 
average price for feeder lambs, purchased on the 
open market. 
Coming now to the wool situation, we have 
the spectacle of the (Continued on page 1^18) 
This chart shows (1) the number of lambs and sheep slaughtered under federal in¬ 
spection; (2) the number of feeding and breeding sheep and lambs shipped from public 
stockyards, and (3) the farm price of lambs and wool each month since January, 1921. 
Market receipts are heaviest in September and October as a rule. Most of the increase 
is in feeders, although slaughter usually is heavier in those months than at any other 
time of year. Prices for both lambs and wool in the last two years have been about 
twice as high as in the latter part of 1921. 
