American Agriculturist 
THE FARM PAPER THAT PRINTS THE FARM NEWS 
“Agriculture is the Most Healthful, Most Useful and Most Noble Employment of Man .”—Washington 
Reg. U. S. Pat. Off. Established 1842 ^ 
Volume 113 
For the Week Ending January 12, 1924 
Number 2 
The Outlook for Farmers in 1924 
How Shall I Adjust My Business to Make the Most Money 
A YEAR ago we stated that conditions and 
tendencies then prevailing indicated that 
“the farmer’s condition will become 
better in 1923 than it has been in four 
years unless European affairs result in a smash- 
up.” That such a conclusion was justified is 
shown by the fact that thirty principal crops, 
based on farm prices on December 1, had a tqtal 
value of $8,322,695,000 in 1923 compared with 
$7,449,804,000 a year ago, an increase of 12 per cent. 
The values of twenty-three of these crops in 1923 
were higher than last year and only seven were 
lower. The percentages of increase or decrease for 
the more important are shown on the ac¬ 
companying chart. The varying amounts 
of each crop sold or consumed on the farm 
would not greatly affect the change in value. 
Both Crop and Live Stock Values Gain 
Returns of producers for the principal 
kinds of live stock and live stock products 
in 1923 also were greater than in 1922. 
This statement is based on average prices 
at the farm as reported each month by the 
U. S. Department of Agriculture and the 
volume of production or receipts at prin¬ 
cipal markets. Prices on Wisconsin mar¬ 
kets were used in the case of cheese. The 
sales were not weighted according to 
months in making the calculations. Hogs 
were an exception in this group as prices 
declined more than enough to offset the 
increase of about 25 per cent, in the num¬ 
ber marketed. The percentage of change 
in returns from each kind of live stock or 
live stock product also is shown on the 
chart. The total from all live stock and 
animal products combined increased ap¬ 
proximately 10 per cent. 
Conditions varied greatly with the 
section, with the type of farming, with the 
individual farmer. Wheat farmers were 
in distress, more western cattlemen were 
obliged to liquidate, some of the Pacific 
( oast fruit growers did not fare especially 
well, potato growers in the Northwest had 
another disastrous season, bad weather and the 
weevil left but little cotton on some planta¬ 
tions to sell at the good prices prevailing and hog 
producers were in the red again on the basis of 
market prices for corn and hogs. Many of the 
farm folks who had been hanging on by their eye¬ 
lashes let go# during the year, voluntarily or 
through compulsion from creditors. Secretary 
Wallace of the Department of Agriculture reports 
that in 15 corn and wheat states over 5 per cent, 
of farmers had lost their farms since 1920 through 
foreclosure or bankruptcy and 4.5 had turned 
over their farms to creditors without legal process. 
An additional 15 per cent, were in fact bankrupt but 
were holding on through leniency of their creditors. 
«*• 
'Further Improvement in 1924 
Standing on the threshold of the new year and 
surveying the forces and trends which seem likely 
to dominate its character, it can be said with fair 
assurance that 1924 bears promise of being at 
least a little more of a money maker for farmers 
generally than was 1923. While the diagnosis of 
further improvement may not be quite as positive 
as last year, the question marks may be slightly 
larger, yet there is little to indicate that the gen¬ 
eral level of agricultural returns will fall below 
1923. 
Improvement in 1924 is not likely to develop 
astonishing proportions, however. No agricul¬ 
tural boom is on the horizon. More of those 
farmers who are hanging on by the courtesy of 
creditors will be obliged to liquidate and, if we 
read the “Indian signs” aright, the agricultural 
problem will not vanish altogether. 
42% i 
FLAX 
PEANUTS 
ONIONS 
BROOM CORN 
COTTON 
MILK 
POTATOES 
HORSES 
CHEESE 
SORGHUM GR. 
SUGAR BEETS 
BEANS 
LAMBS 
CALVES 
COTTONSEED 
WOOL 
BUTTER 
CORN 
SW. POTATOES 
OATS 
BARLEY 
EGGS 
CATTLE 
HAY 
CHICKENS 
TOBACCO 
APPLES 
4%m 
G%mm 
17% 
145% 
167% 
139 % 
■ 36% 
•35% 
■ 30% 
■ 29% 
■ 29% 
>28% 
(25% 
• 22 % 
21 % 
19% 
18% 
18% 
17% 
17% 
16% 
13% 
13% 
12 % 
11% CROP VALUES 
7% TOTAL YIELDS 
BASED ON 
AND DECEMBER 
■>■5% 1 FARM PRICES 
■■4% 
H 3 o /o LIVE STOCK AND LIVE STOCK 
■ 3% PRODUCT VALUES - BASED ON FARM 
HOGS PRICES DURING YEAR AND MAR 
RICE KET RECEIPTS OR VOLUME OF 
WHEAT PRODUCTION 
RYE 
Most farm products gained in 1923 compared with 1922. To tht left of th 
center line shows decreases; to the right, increases. 
Prospects for industrial activity are in the fore¬ 
front of any analysis of the agricultural outlook. 
Beliefs on this point are divided but those who 
expect a reasonably good business year seem to 
have the stronger argument. This means con¬ 
tinuation of the high rate of employment and the 
maintenance of wage scales in industry which 
assure the farmer of a broad demand for meats, 
dairy and poultry products, fruits and the finer 
vegetables. Potential demand for wool and 
cotton goods will not be restricted by a lack of 
public buying power although actual consumption 
of both may be reduced by high prices resulting 
from shortage. It means also the continuation of 
high prices for products which farmers must buy 
and high transportation costs. 
Ever since the minor reaction in trade and in¬ 
dustry started last spring, the business doctors 
have been in disagreement as to what the future 
held. On one side were those who believed tlfat 
owing to high wages, taxes, overhead costs, the 
farm depression, financial conditions in Europe, 
and too many automobiles, the foundations of 
industrial activity were unhealthy and that read¬ 
justment would be necessary. Others contended 
that expansion had occurred since 1921 in spite of 
such handicaps and that they constituted no final 
reason for terminating the period or industrial 
activity. This group placed easy credit conditions 
in the key position in forecasting the future and 
asserted that with no general overproduction, no 
overbuying, or overextension of credit, the business 
structure was sound. 
A recent expression from Babson runs to the 
effect that present conditions are not alarming but 
readjustment of prices and costs must go further 
before any prolonged expansion can take 
place. Moody is ranged on the same 
side of the debate and states that in¬ 
dications are for a moderate fall in com¬ 
modity prices, a slight decline in some 
wages, a moderate increase in unemploy¬ 
ment, and a fall in production costs. 
He declares, however, that the unhealthy 
conditions of 1919-1920 are absent, that 
money promises to be easy and that, in 
general, we are in a trade reaction rather 
than a period of severe depression. As 
a result, improvement may occur before 
1924 is over. 
The Harvard Committee on economic 
research takes a more hopeful view and 
states that “the outlook for the first half 
of 1924 is for a firm or moderately rising 
price level, the maintenance of a normal 
manufacturing output, and the continu¬ 
ance of generally good business condi¬ 
tions. An easing of money rates has 
occurred recently, and no adverse influ¬ 
ences are now discernible which would 
render the money market an obstacle to 
the maintenance and improvement of the 
general level of business.” 
The Brookmire agency states that its 
forecast line points upward, indicating 
that both security and commodity prices 
are in the major upward move and that 
the volume of business activity is due to 
expand. The Annalist barometer line 
also has 'turned upward in significant 
fashion, although it has not gone far enough 
as yet to constitute a positive forecast of a 
renewal of business activity and expansion. 
Building Activity a Big Factor 
Activity in the building and automobile indus¬ 
tries was at the bottom of the large manufacturing 
volume in 1923. Iron, steel, lumber, hardware, 
paint, leather, house furnishings, the railroads and 
numerous other lines shared in the building boom. 
Another big year in the construction industry is 
the main assurance of maintenance of good busi¬ 
ness and urban prosperity in 1924. The decline 
in building costs since last summer has uncovered 
a large latent demand and, as a result? building 
permits issued in the principal cities in October 
and November showed gains of 31 and 23 per cent., 
respectively, over the corresponding months of 
1922. These projects will be carried out for the 
most part in 1924. Architects and contractors 
both report that a large volume of building is 
( Continued, on page 36) 
