American Agriculturist 
THE FARM PAPER THAT PRINTS THE FARM NEWS 
Agriculture.is the Most Healthful, Most Useful and Most Noble Employment of Man.”— Washington 
Reg. U. S. Pat. Off. 
Established 1842 
Volume 113 
For the Week Ending June 7, 1924 
Number 23 
The Outlook for the Dairyman 
Time is Required to Halt Overproduction, But the Future Looks Good 
By M. ADAMS 
OUR 
F our years ago a large grain grower up 
in Minnesota began to wonder if the boom 
days for wheat weren’t about over. His 
1920 crop had sold for less than his three 
preceding harvests, and by the spring of 1921, 
when it was time to seed his three-quarters of 
a section, the price of wheat had taken a nose¬ 
dive until it was selling at less than one-half 
its value in the preceding spring. He decided 
against wheat. He purchased the beginning of a 
good dairy herd, planted part of his farm to corn, 
alfalfa and clover, and erected two silos, going 
into debt for most of his expense. He gradually 
increased his dairy herd until last year his income 
from the sale of breeding stock and of 
milk to a local cooperative cheese 
factory, which he helped to build, 
totaled $5,500. 
The depression of 1921 hit the 
beef cattlemen pretty hard. Beef is 
a prosperity meat, and widespread 
unemployment during that period 
forced the consumer to buy less beef. 
Farming was a losing proposition for 
John Philips, a beef cattle raiser in 
Nebraska, and life looked pretty 
dreary to him. Monthly cream 
cheeks one of his neighbors was 
getting seemed like a direct gift from 
the gods. So Philips sold his beef 
cattle herd and replaced it with 20 
head of dairy cattle. He made more 
profit on milk in a month than the 
same number of beef cows had made 
for him in any year since 1919. 
These are typical examples of the 
shifts that have been made to dairy¬ 
ing in the past few years. With so 
many'enterprises of the farm unprofit¬ 
able and so few profitable as dairying, 
the natural tendency was for farmers 
to shift to the few choice lines. Men 
and money have been attracted into 
the industry and the ranks of dairy producers 
have thickened, apparently oblivious to the pos¬ 
sibility that the market could be saturated. 
“No dairy cows, no credit” has been the policy 
BUTTER 
IMPORTS EXPORTS 
ona 400 0 400 
in some eastern industrial centers and fear on the 
part of dealers that consumption of all dairy 
months exceeded the year previous by over 20 products would diminish in the coming year as 
per cent. In many cases, the surplus of milk and a result of a business depression and unemploy- 
cream available for city distribution was as large ment. J 
as the usual summer “flush.” The influences of all these forces was concen- 
Early last November, the Dairymen’s League trated into the late winter and early spring 
set a price of $3.25 per 100 pounds for standard months, when production was heavy and going 
3.5 per cent, milk at the 200 mile zone, dropped to through the usual seasonal increase, while re- 
W.M by May. The basic price at Boston de- maining storage stocks of butter and cheese 
chned from $3.61 last November to $1.90 to $1.98 were failing to disappear at the rate necessary 
for May. Not all the districts were equally hard to clear the decks for the new storing season 
hit, but the average fluid milk price for the entire Dealers became convinced that the level of prices 
country dropped from $2.90 last November to would average lower in the next year than in the 
___ previous one. Since April the mar¬ 
kets have been doing a little better 
and some of the fright and extreme 
pessimism have passed away. 
From this outline of conditions, 
we can consider the three factors 
listed above and appraise their bear¬ 
ing on the present situation as well 
as on the future. 
BALANCE OF TRADE IN DAIRY 
IN TERMS OF WHOLE MILK 
.MILLIONS OF POUNDS 
PRODUCTS 
CHEESE 
IMPORTS EXPORTS 
400 0 400 
m 
CONDENSED 
EXPORTS 
400 800 1200 
MILK 
E 
= 
Ml 
1600 2000 
1814 
1915 
1916 
1917 
1918 
1919 
1920 
1921 
1922 
1923 
IMPORTS 
1200 800 400 
TOTAL. BALANCE 
EXPORTS 
0 400 800 
A Million More Cows 
Dairy cows on farms on January 
1,1924, showed an increase of 238,000 
head last year, and of 1,081,000'head, 
or 4.3 per cent., in three years. 
This is more than the average long 
time rate of increase. The largest 
increases have been in the grain 
States and beef producing sections 
where diversification has meant shifts 
to dairying and poultry raising, and 
in the newer States of the far West. 
In addition to the larger number of 
dairy cows, the average production 
per cow has been increased so that 
the gain in output is greater than the 
increase in cow population alone 
would indicate. 
Final official figures for 1923 have 
was from $2.72 in January, 1923, the highest 
month, to $2.54 in the following May. 
- — - --- — r - j These declines in all cases were too drastic 
of country bankers in many States. They have and came too early in the year to be attributed 
encouraged local purchases of dairy cattle so that entirely to the normal seasonal drop. They 
.56 in May, whereas a year previous the decline not yet been published, but, based on such evi 
dences as is at hand, total milk production in 
1923 was around 108 billion .pounds compared 
with 90 billion pounds in 1920, a gain of 20 per 
cent. The human population increased less than 
5 per cent, in the same interval. Receipts of 
° . x —-- —^-Lucy per cent, m me same interval, receipts ot 
their clients might have money coming m every seemed to signify some change in the underlying butter and cheese and reports of huge milk sur- 
rnnnt h . Rati k? in mon \t cpp!i nnc a ! 1 fL a aai int^r non 1 4 - n /-»•? 4- L-* /-* n _ _ _ _j_ __ 1 • i• ■ . 1 . 1 . • . 1 • . 
month. Banks in many sections of the country 
report that they are flooded right now with 
applications for loans to farmers for the purpose 
of buying more milk cows. 
Sudden Collapse in Markets 
In the last six months, the markets for dairy 
conditions of the market. For over two years pluses indicate that production this year is run- 
prices had been higher than at the corresponding ning well ahead of 1923. 
time a year previous. Suddenly they dropped 
below those of the year before. More than that. Takes Time to Stem the Tide 
prices fell beneath the profit level for many The question is how long it will take and how 
producers and the dairy business began to look low prices must go to check the current which has 
j , ----- --- less attractive. The danger of too rapid additions been running so strongly to dairying. Producers 
products began to go to pieces. Butter prices, to the rank of the dairymen became apparent to usually continue shifting into a new line after the 
^ filch reached do cents for 92 score at Chicago all, and demand was made for higher tariffs to forces which justified a shift have ceased to oper- 
early m January, stood at 51 cents on February shut out foreign butter and cheese. ate. The urge to diversify still continues and 
1?: The^heei 1 SrtrtSted bfithely fnto^ the Three Factors in Decline there , f e , some lines of f f rmin g "* i( * are not 
• . ne e et l St f - bllt y. mto J?e equal to dairying even at present prices. The 
er season with fresh twins as high as 23% Back of this general reversal in the markets for conclusion seems to be justified, however, that the 
cents on the Chicago market last November, then dairy products, were three main factors: stimulating forces back of the abnormally rapid 
oegan to tire under the burden of heavy current 1. The increase in domestic production already growth of the dairy output have reached or passed 
production and large stocks in storage. Values referred to, resulting from attractive prices for their climax although their force is not fully spent 
ran persistently during the winter and spring, several years compared with other farm products, and producers will continue responding to them to 
reaching wy 2 cents on April 15. > < 2. Increasing competition from foreign butter some extent a while longer. 
e same story holds true of whole milk prices and cheese induced by a heavier output in export- At the lower level of prices, some dairymen have 
+ u e ^ ai, l , 1C ^ ^ districts. In some sections ing countries and attractive prices in this country, already begun to feed concentrates less generously, 
- Fast, the flow of milk during the winter 3. A decline in domestic consumption of milk {Continued on page 540 ) 
