American Agriculturist 
THE FARM PAPER THAT PRINTS THE FARM NEWS 
Agriculture is the Most Healthful, Most Useful and Most Noble Employment of Man .”—Washington 
Reg. U. S. Pat. Off. 
Established 1842 
Volume 113 
For the Week Ending June 28, 1924 
Number 26 
Forecasting the Weather a Year Ahead 
An A. A. Wednesday Evening Radio Talk Broadcast From WEAF 
I ONG range weather forecasting—telling 
what kind offseasons we are to have a year 
J ahead—has been reached. For any given 
section of this country or of the world it 
can be foretold whether the year or season will be 
wet or dry, warm or cold; whether there will be 
hurricanes and cloudbursts, dry winters or heavy 
snows; when and where the droughts will come; 
the approximate dates and areas of cold waves, 
unseasonably late killing frosts of spring and the 
early ones of late summer and early fall 
My system is in fact not a forecast but is an 
interpretation. It is based on a simple principle, 
but makes use of the latest and most 
highly developed and technical scien- — ' ■ 
tific discoveries. In operation it is 
like getting on a train in Chicago and 
knowing when you will reach New 
York. 
I shall now tell: 
First, the principle on which the 
system rests.] 
Second, how it is applied. 
Third, how my forecast, made last 
October for the weather of 1924, has 
been fulfilled to the present date. 
Fourth, what the weather will be 
for the next three months, for next 
winter, and for 1925. 
Fifth, what is in store for the whole 
world in 1926 and 1927. 
First. The heat of the sun con¬ 
trols, directly or indirectly, all 
weather. Its heat reaching the earth 
varies from year to year. For over 
forty years eminent scientists of the 
Smithsonian Institution in Washing¬ 
ton have been perfecting the most 
delicate and accurate instruments in 
the world to measure these variations. 
Many difficult problems of the atmos¬ 
phere had to be worked out. This 
great undertaking is successful. The 
world can now know the changes in 
the temperature of the sun. The weather of the 
By HERBERT J. BROWNE 
influenced by their varying temperatures bring 
to the land nine-tenths of the moisture which falls 
as rain, or snow. Because winds tend to blow from 
cool regions toward warm regions the measure¬ 
ment of ocean surface temperatures and land tem¬ 
peratures gives the basis for forecasting the rain¬ 
fall, and in a general way its amount and the 
region where it will fall. It takes from one to 
three years for the ocean currents and counter- 
currents to have completed their response to a long 
time change in the sun’s heat. But the response 
Long Range Weather Prophecy 
W E used to laugh at an old-fashioned almanac which made 
a joke of forecasting the weather by printing the words 
“along about this time look out for rain” all the way across the 
space where the days of the month were listed. As it was fairly 
certain that it would rain sometime during the thirty days, the 
forecaster was a sure prophet. Since that time, considerable 
progress has been made in accurate forecasting of the weather 
so that to-day millions of farmers use the weather reports as an 
approximate guide in handling their crops. So far, however, 
most of the progress has been made in short-time forecasting. 
The other day a man came into our office and interested us so 
much in a brief talk about what he had been able to do in long- 
range forecasting that we asked him to broadcast a talk over 
WEAF on this interesting subject. He kindly consented to do so, 
and his talk is on this page. Mr. H. J. Browne, the author, is 
a scientist, who has spent years in research study of factors that 
influence the weather, and as the weather is the chief and funda¬ 
mental influence in every farmer’s business, we know you will 
enjoy and be interested in what Mr. Browne has to say.—THE 
Editors. 
dieted for the western cattle country—the great 
ranges from Amarillo, Texas, to Havre, Montana 
—the best grass and water in twenty years, and 
they are having it. The forecast was for a severe 
drought on the Pacific Coast. It is the worst in the 
history of that section. From the 105th meridian 
east to the Atlantic Coast the whole spring was so 
cold as to put crops back from two weeks to a 
month and to produce a situation of grave concern. 
Both corn and cotton are seriously threatened. 
Fourth. I now predict that July and August 
will swing toward hot dry weather from the Mis¬ 
souri Valley eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, 
with severe drought conditions in 
— - many sections, relieved in part by 
severe thunderstorms. Rainfall will 
be below normal through the south¬ 
west and to the Pacific Coast. Many 
heat records will be broken. 
There will be a cold wave along the 
northern border States in August from 
Minnesota east, and in September one 
of great severity will come as far 
south as Nebraska, Central Iowa, 
Northern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, 
and it may penetrate New York and 
Northern New England. It threatens 
severe damage to the enormous acre¬ 
age of replanted corn in the affected 
areas, as well as to Wisconsin to¬ 
bacco, northern buckwheat and green 
crops of other kinds. West India 
hurricanes will be notably absent. 
The winter of 1924-25 will set in 
early and last long. There will be 
much severe weather and winter 
grains will suffer from lack of suffi¬ 
cient snow cover, especially in the 
northern States. Early cold waves 
will reach the Gulf Coast in January. 
The year 1925 will see a repetition of 
many of the disagreeable features of 
1924. But the California drought will 
be broken and the temperature there 
The Forecast for ’26 and ’27 
Fifth. I again sound the warning that the years 
1926 and 1927 threaten grave disasters to the 
grain crops of the whole world. I was the first 
to make this forecast. Now leading British and 
Swedish scientists, working upon entirely distinct 
‘iii ii. i , Y, -T.- * s of a definite character. So a knowledge of the will return to normal, mav in fact be cooler 
ole voild slowly but surely follows and us gov- amount of the sun’s change gives the basis for than normal. 
Cr penod changes of the sun s heat, measuring the oceanic changes, and the conse- The Western ranges will have a heavy winter 
^teJKrssassisa arifasii"*— 
iiSasSSt 82 nSSoitfSS* t ™£r sx&s ~ w *“ “ 
observations began m 1905. And the sun’s heat, before the Farm Hands Club in Washington, an 
reaching the earth has remained at a low point organization of the leading experts of the Depart- 
, \ h u ls dr °P fro . m the high average of ment of Agriculture and the Washington repre- 
L 1/ 19yu o the present is equal to a change in sentatives of the great agricultural associations, 
temperature over the whole earth of four.and one- In January] this forecast was published widely 
half degrees Fahrenheit But this loss as well as throughout the country. It stated that'forUhe swedisn scientists working upon entirely dktinr 
the preceding- rise, is very unevenly distributed, country at large and for the full period 1024. would lines of t ° upon entirely dl5tlnc 
It is the method of forecasting this unequal dis- be a cofd dry /ear. 
tnbution and its effects on the winds, rains and Up to date for two-thirds of the time and over and sub-tropical^^oceanic^waters are far be ow Ki 
ve?y briefy ^ * ”° W t0W y ° U tw °-‘ hMs 1 ,° f th f area lha ««‘her f J>“ been un- normal tem^ratures and wdf To rema“a 
ery bneliy. i usually cold and unusually dry. The principal means chilly late growing seasons, late frosts in 
The Effect of Ocean Currents excessive rainfall was, as forecast, along the At- spring and early killing frosts in autumn and late 
wu . , lantic beaboard and m the East Gulf States. The summer. In 1816 came the “Year Without a 
The open oceans, covering about two-thirds of excessive heat has also been where forecast, along Summer,” with frosts snow and ice in everv 
e earth s surface, are the great storehouses of the the* Mexican border and on the Pacific Coast. My month of the year, in which no crops were raised 
un s heat. By their currents the heat ol tropical forecast was for early and severe cold waves reach- north of the Ohio and Potomnr* TI 
waters is carried to the colder regions north and ing the Gulf Coast! for later ones furthernorth, 
vouih, while by counter-currents and by pressure for favorable weather m the Oklahoma-Kansas- government should buy and store our surplus 
co d water flows down to restore the balance. Nebraska winter wheat belt and the northwestern wheat instead of trying to dump it into Europe 
The winds which pass over the oceans and are spring wheat sections. All this is sustained. Ipre- below the cost of production P P 
