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THE NATIONAL NURSERYMAN 
THE INFLUENCE OF THE WAR ON THE 
DEMAND FOR NURSERY STOCK. 
Can a Better Demand be Expected After the Conflict is Over ? 
By Lloyd C. Stark, Vice-President Stark Bros. Nurseries & Orchards Company, Louisiana, Mo. 
T III^ discussion of the iirst of these subjects, “The 
Influence of the War on the Demand for Nur¬ 
sery Stock - ' can he handled with some satisfac¬ 
tion. but the second question, “Can a Better Demand he 
Expected After the Conflict is Over” involves so many 
“ifs” and “guesses” that it seems to me that our good 
friend, Needham, must have had some particular grudge 
against me when he asked me to present the matter to 
you gentlemen. In fact, as one of our good friends has 
said, ! feel like the good old colored brother who was 
asked to change a $20.00 bill. “No, boss” said he, “I 
ain’t got de change, hut 1 thanks you foah de compliment, 
jest de same.” 
As a matter of fact, one man’s guess is as good as 
another when it comes to dealing in futures following 
this unprecedented world war, for as Horace Greely once 
wrote, “It is the unexpected that usually happens.” 
At first glance, guessing as to the future seems easy— 
nobody can contradict you; one opinion is just as good as 
another. To that extent my subject is easy, but so 
handled, it would be worth just as much to the Western 
Association of Nurserymen as the paper upon which it 
was written. 
The more I investigated the subject the more I realized 
the difficulty of presenting you with information of real 
value, and that is what 1 have tried to do—I have tried to 
make an actual investigation. I have written men in 
all sections of the country—in the nursery trade, fin¬ 
ancial circles, and the officials in the several Depart¬ 
ments at Washington. Our good friend, Houston, Sec¬ 
retary of Agriculture, has been kind enough to offer 
some very valuable suggestions, as have many nursery¬ 
men from all sections of the country. 
In spite of the fact that I have endeavored to study the 
war from an economical standpoint, from its inception, 
I felt absolutely incapable of coming before you with my 
own poor opinions and guesses. 1 have taken refuge in 
the old axiom that— 
“In a multitude of counsel there is much wisdom.” 
Such information as I will give you hereafter will 
simply be a resume or digest of the opinions of many 
men; men whom I believe to be in a position to give us 
intelligent “guesses.” 
But to return once more to “The Influence of the War 
on the Demand for Nursery Stock”—. This part of the 
subject surely requires very little discussion. 
The consensus of opinion from all sections of the 
country is, that the war has adversely affected the nur- 
scry business in about the same ratio as the general 
business throughout the country. In the east, and west 
of the Rockies, the fruit tree business has been hurt 
worse than the ornamental trade. This is particularly 
true of the east. In fact, the ornamental business, 
everything considered, has been unusually active; the 
great danger that now confronts ornamental nurserymen 
is that this increased demand for ornamental stock w ill, 
in another year or two, encourage excessive propaga¬ 
tion that will glut the market with ornamentals and we 
w ill have the pleasure of seeing oursehes handling or¬ 
namentals at less than cost of production, just as we have 
witnessed in the past few years the over-production of 
apple trees. 
In the central-west, through the corn and wheat belts, 
the demand for fruit trees in proportion has been better 
than in the east. Perhaps I w ill not be far wrong when 
1 state that it is probably 20 per cent below normal. 
The statements I have just made, of course, apply to 
the entire period since the beginning of the war. 
In the last few weeks, or perhaps more truly the last 
two months, conditions have taken a radical change for 
the better, and now most every business in every section 
is beginning or is already radiating with optimism. The 
press of the U. S. a few months ago was predicting pros¬ 
perity; now we hear, see, and feel that prosperity has 
arrived—it is with us now—times are better, there is no 
one who will attempt to gainsay that fact. The nur¬ 
sery business has greatly improved and the outlook for 
spring is much better. 
The reason for this return of prosperity some people 
w ill tell you is due to the war—war munition orders, 
war prices for grain crops, the big increase in our trade 
balance with Europe, the big increase in our gold re¬ 
serve, (European gold is pouring into American banks) 
—our trade balance with Europe is just sixteen hundred 
million dollars better than it was before the war; that is, 
w^e w r ere practically eight hundred million dollars in debt 
to Europe before the war, where now Europe is some¬ 
thing over eight hundred million dollars debtor to us. 
The figures at this time are probably considerably in ex¬ 
cess of the amounts mentioned. 
Those authorities who assign these reasons only, fail 
to reach the basic cause w hich my investigation shows 
is, (and this applies particularly to the nursery business) 
the enormous crops and the exceptionally high prices 
prevailing for the season just closed. The nursery bus¬ 
iness is largely dependent upon the purchasing power of 
the farmer. When he is in a buying mood nursery 
stock moves—w hen he is feeling pessimistic our nursery 
sales drop. 
In 1913 and 1914 the farmer passed through two with¬ 
ering drouths; the South suffered several losses in cotton 
and the nurserymen felt the results, so did the large or¬ 
chard companies, many of them ceased to exist and the 
others have had mighty hard sledding, and the big com¬ 
mercial plantings dropped off rapidly. 
This year we have had good crops and the country 
banks are full of money—farmers are again beginning 
to feel good and in the last few weeks they have begun 
