CLIMATE AND HISTORY. 309 
Transcaspia shows what can be done. The other school, of which Blanford is the 
best-known representative, holds that dnring the last two thousand years the climate 
nmst have changed. Wars and nii.sgovernment have been a fearful curse, but their 
influence is not sufficient to account for the location of large towns in places where 
to-day a caravan can with difficult}- find a pool of brackish water. The just rule of a 
European power may do much in favored localities, and it would be an immense 
blessing ever)where ; but it can not restore the ancient prosperity. 
It is not my purpose to enter into an exhaustive discussion of these two 
opposing views, for that would lead into a consideration of the causes of wars and 
migrations, the reasons for the fall of nations, and the philosophy of histor}'. I shall 
merely' state a few salient facts which may be put in the fonn of answers to the 
following questions : (a) Do wars and misgovernment necessarily cause pennanent 
depopulation ? (d) Are Eastern Persia and its neighbors able to support a much larger 
population than that which now occupies them ? (c) Is there any independent 
evidence that the climate either has or has not changed during historical times ? 
(a) The influence of wars. — The depopulation caused b)^ wars is one of the 
best-known facts of histor}\ The question now before us is whether, other conditions 
remaining unchanged, frequent wars w//jY cause pennanent and progressive depopu- 
lation. Examples from many lands might be quoted, but Persia itself furnishes an 
answer. The province of Astrabad is one of the few in Persia which are blessed with 
an abundant rainfall and great natural advantages. For centuries its inhabitants 
have been exposed to the terrible raids of the fierce Turkomans and ha\'e also had 
the disadvantage of a x^xy unhealthful climate. Their condition as described by 
Vamber}- in the early sixties was most pitiable. Even as late as 1880, when 
conditions had much improved, owing to the proximity of Russia, O'Donovau 
(p. 190) relates that murderous affrays were frequent even in the immediate vicinity 
of Astrabad. Yet in almost the same paragraph the author enlarges on the density 
of the population, Persian villages of from 20 to 30 houses being scattered ever}- 500 
or 600 }ards. The fertilit\- of the region is so great that the people persisted in 
coming into it, in spite of the fact that their numbers were frequently decimated by the 
Turkomans. 
Azerbaijan, the northwestern province of Persia, furnishes a more striking 
example of the same sort. This, according to Curzon (p. 514), "is the province 
which, excepting only Khorasan, has more often been violated by foreign invasion 
than any other part of Persia. ... Its fertility of resources entitle it to be 
called the granar\- of Northern Iran." Tabriz, the ca2)ital (p. 518) "has fallen the 
first victim to invading annies, and has been successively held by Arabs, Seljuks, 
Ottomans, Persians, and Russians. What the rage of conquest has spared, nature has 
interfered to destroy. The city has been desolated by frequent and calamitous earth- 
quakes. Twice we hear of its being leveled to the ground before, in 1392, it was 
sacked by Timur, whose path was strewn with mins that vied with the convulsions 
of nature. Five times during the last two centuries has it again been laid low. 
A reliable historian tells us that 80,000 persons perished in the earthquake of 1721, 
and we hear from another source that half that number were claimed for the death- 
roll by its successor in 1 780." Yet in spite of wars and calamities the fertilit)- of 
