conflict went againet Japan. The end of hostilities found only a small portion of the 
coastal ea etill operable and both porpoise hunting and pelagic sealing practically at 
a standst e 
The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry has no data whatever on the atatus of 
the Robben Island herd during the war years. Whether or not the usual atatietics were 
ever collected or forwarded to Tokyo cannot be learned, and, of course, it has been impos- 
sible since the surrender to search for them in Sakhalin. The Ministry does have complete 
statistics covering the period from 1911 to 1941 (Bibl 286) (Appendix B). There were ana- 
lysed in 1942 by Professor H. Aikawa of Kyushu Imperial University to determine the naxinum 
exploitation possible on a sustained yield basis, and the probable effects on the herd of 
the prospective pelagic sealing operations (Bibl 299). Professor Aikawa noted that the 
Robben Island increase curve, instead of being healthily linear ase in the Pribilofs, showed 
sigmoid characteristics indicating a rapid approach to ite upper limite. Apparently un- 
aware of the steady drain on the herd from pelagic sealing off the Japanese coast, he as~ 
eumed this indicated the Robben herd had about reached its limit of expansion on the avail- 
able rookery space, He estimated the optimum permissible harvest to be 2,500 seals and 
warned that, other factors remaining equal, a yearly kill of 3,000 animals would extirpate 
the colony in 10 years, and a kill of 10,000 might wipe it out in four. 
From pho*ographe of the Robben Island colony taken in 1942, Professor T. Inukal 
of Hokkaido Imperial University made an unpublished estimate that the herd then numbered 
about 50,000 animals, a marked increase over the official 1941 figures. He also estimated, 
by calculating the seemingly unoccupied suitable rookery space, that the island would sup- 
port a saxinum of about 120,000 seals. 
These forecasts and estimates are most interesting in the light of the only subse- 
quent information available on the herd. Mr Tayashiro Hodate, who was employed by the 
Japanese Government on Robben Ieland during 1943-45, states the annual kill there to have 
been: 1942, 9,000; 1943, 10,000; 1944, 20 ,O00; 1945, 30,000. 
From all the available previous data such a kill is obviously excessively high 
and, if true, indicates the disregard for the future of the colony engendered by the des- 
perate need for resources in the latter years of the war. Even a much lower kill than this 
must have made inroads on the herd which could not fail to be noticed by even the most 
casual observer. Yet Mr Hodate claims that, ase he remembers it, during the 1945 season 
all the beaches were occupied and the herd showed no apparent decline from the heavy kill 
the preceding year] This overly optimistic opinion must be disregarded ae typical of that 
of many professional hunters and fishermen who are reluctant to concede that heavy killing 
by man has much influence on animal populations. 
Mr Hodate also admitted to having made three trips back to Sakhalin surrepti- 
tiously in 1946, when the only Ruseian patrol was a large warship which was easy to evade. 
Further visite the following summer were impossible because the patrol work was taken over 
by small fast boate and planes. During his 1946 visits Mr Hodate heard reports that the 
Russians were employing Japanese labor to harvest the Robben Island seale that season, and 
that their plan called for a kill of 10,000 seals, Approximately the same number of skins 
was brought from the Commander Islands to the South Sakhalin tanning factory for process- 
ing, which suggeste that the Commander and Robben herde are probably nearly equal in size. 
The authors ascribe no reliability to any of these statements or data. The most 
official of all Japanese statistics have proved consistently unreliable, and none of these 
is authoritative. Mr Hodate's estimates were of questionable origin and based solely on 
his memory. Taken together, however, these statements appear to justify the conclusion 
that the Japanese increased the Robben Ieland kill greatly during the war yeare. Such. 
over-exploitation could not fail to make sizable inroade on the colony. Therefore, it is 
unlikely that the Robben Ieland herd has increased, and even doubtful that ite 194] popu 
lation level has been maint:-ined. 
29 
