OctoLcr 17, 1011 
LAND AND WATEB 
As to the troops that wlR he actually released 
fi'om before ^ijitwcr]) ^ve have de&iite evidence. They 
arc not troops o£ the first line. They are reserves, 
and for the most part reserves of the second class. 
Upon this all evidence agrees. German witnesses are 
silent ; and Belgian, English, and French witnesses 
wJio have been able to test the matter in action are in 
no doubt. As to what neto troops may be coming 
over common sense can guide iis. The fall of Antwerp 
does not send against tlie Hank of the iUhed line 
young, new and fully trained troops. It can send 
new troops ; it can send young troops ; it can send 
old reservists. Bat it Avill not and cannot send first-class 
material. It will send men of the latest hardly trained 
levies and of the oldest and worse reserves — many of 
them also but partially trained. It cannot do what 
it did two weeks ago at Koye and at Arras. 
The fall of Antwerp will release, it must be 
remembered, a large siege train ; but that large siege 
train has been in existence all these weeks since the 
fall of Maubouge ; and the immediate work before the 
German araiy is not a new siege, but the release of its 
main communications betv.een Noyon and Belgium 
from pci-il. 
Now there are two v/ays in which this release may 
be effected. The Allied line which runs up opposed 
to the west froit of the enemy from the corner 
where the Aisue joins the Oise up to and beyond the 
Belgian frontier, may be pierced or it may be turned. 
And the last question we have to ask about this new 
body of men which the fall of Antwerp will, directly 
and indirectly, let loose upon our flank from the Franco- 
Belgian frontier around Lille, is the direction in which 
this body will be launched. If the Germans still 
thuik tlicy can break the Allied line they will send 
these reinforcing bodies of theirs east of LiUe, and 
down to the Arras district, where they have already 
tried to break the line and faUed, or to the Roye district 
further south, where they have also tried to break 
it and failed. If, as is more probable, they propose 
to outflank and to turn the Allied line, then they will 
launch their new forces upon the district westward of 
Lille, that is, between Lille and the sea. We shall see 
which they do, but it seems probable at this moment 
of writing, the afternoon of Tuesday, Oct. 13th, that 
they sliould attempt the latter adventure. 
In order to see why this should be, let us briefly 
con.sider what the fortunes of this West front have 
been during the last month and are to-day. 
II. 
THE WEST FRONT, ROYE-ARRAS. 
Briefly, the situation upon the west front, which 
makes one believe that the new German reinforce- 
ment w ill rather attempt to outflank us by LiHe than 
to cut us further south is as follows : 
The line held by the eneni}' east and west, right 
acro.sg Clia.npagne, from Noyon to the Argonne, was, 
as wc have seen, capable of envelopment. Its right, 
or western ilank up north of Noyon toAvards the 
Belgian frontier, was exposed. But since the 
numbers were iicarly equal on both sides, and since 
a modern turning movement involves the use of great 
numbci-s and of railways, and can be Avatched from 
the ail- as well as in older fashion, the attempt of 
tl:e French to creep northward and outflank was 
contmually met by further Gennan reinforcement, 
which crept northward and tried in its turn to 
outflank the French, until the line went clawing up 
northward Avith each attempt of the one party to get 
round the other, so that Avithin three Aveeks it had 
bti-etched about seventy miles and Avas touching on 
the Belgian frontier. Neither party being able to 
ontHank the ct! ci", an attempt was made upon either 
side to outflank the opponent's line on this west 
front. The progressive extension of the two 
antagonists passed up through Eoye, through Albert, 
through Arras, and at last to a point about ten miles 
south of LiEe. 
It must be particularly noted that in this attempt 
the Germans had a numerical superiority. They 
outnumbered and still outnumber the Allies. They 
brought up great masses from their centre and their 
left. They made three attempts to break the French 
line, each of Avhich had a considerable measm-e of 
success, and each of which failed. One was tlie 
attempt round the to\vu of Roye, the other to the 
north again round the town of Albert, the thix-d and 
last round about the town of Ai-ras to the north again. 
*% ,^RMEMTIERCS 
Attack to cut 
namur 
•^0 *- -..» PCI I 
CO/PIEGNE 
THB ALTKKM.VTIVB USB OF QEBMAN KKINFOKCKllliNTa KITHJiE UO 
CUT OB TO OUTFI.ANK TBI ALLIKD LINE. 
In this diagnxm I have roughly suggested 
these three " bulges " Avhich the Gennaus jjushed out 
Avithout succeeding in breaking the French line. 
Every one of these bulges (or "salients") has 
been thrown back again. Eoye is reoccupied by the 
French, Avho are no av also either attacking or occupying 
Lassigny. They have long ago got back Albert. 
They are far to the east of Arras, which they reteok 
last week. 
III. 
THE GATE AT ST. MIHIEL. 
There is no need, in connection with the third 
element in this week's critical situation, to reproduce 
at length the description given on the past of the 
"open door" at St. Mihiel on the Upper Meuse. 
Two diagrams AviU sufiSce to recall it to the reader's 
recollection. Hie first diagram shows why the 
C VERDUN 
slM 
TOUL 
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