LAND AND WATER 
November 7, 1914 
because it is not the Geraian system to take every 
available man, but rather to pick and choose and to 
leave a large iinti-aiued or half-trdincd reserve to be 
digested into the army in the course of a -nar, hut 
very many because they iccre pliysically unfit for service. 
Tlie remaining two quarters — or eight and a half 
million — stiuid for the bovs who are not :cally fit to 
bear arms, but who can at a pinch be called upon, 
even from the ago of IC (as Napoleon called upon 
such classes in his last desperation), and for elderly, 
old, and very old men. Nor should it be forgotten 
that to keep a nation going at all in wartime, you 
cannot reckon less than a number varying Avith varying 
circumstances, but in the case of Geraiany at least 
one million men — neither boys nor too old. 
Well, this loss of nearly one-and-three-quarter 
millions (at the very least) which has already f idlen for 
the most part upon the two first quarters, the trained 
army, and the equal untrained mass behind it — has 
fallen most heavily on the first and best. It comes 
to more than a fifth of all the two possible categories 
combined : more than a fifth of those who can ever 
make real soldiers, and of these more than a quarter 
of the first line. 
There is the chief militai-y feature of the 
struggle at the present moment. In a service 
peculiarly dependent upon cadres cei-tainly a third of 
the officers have by this time disappeared. It 
sounds like a violent statement, but the lists are 
there to prove it. 
It wOl probably be found when fuller records are 
available that much more than a third have already 
gone. Of the best troops called up for the first 
effort one-fourth have certainly gone and probably 
more. Of all ti-oops, trained and untramed, so far 
incorporated by Germany one-fourth have gone, for 
she has quite certainly not yet summoned in any 
shape more than seven million men since the 
beginning of the war— ifc is doubtful if she has 
summoned six. Of all available material for anything 
approaching a ti-ue army a quarter has ab'eady gone. 
At this point my calculation ceases. It must 
as yet be enough to suggest that uj^on analogy drawn, 
from known cases of loss in particular actions, every 
man can, by such methods as I have used above, come 
to his estimate of the corresponding wastage upon our 
side, and, for the whole of both fields, he wUl find 
that estimate a reassuring contrast. 
THE WAR BY WATER. 
By FRED T. JANE, 
NOTE. — TUB ARTICM HAS BEEN SUllMimD TO THE PEESS EUBEAU, WHICH DOES NOT OBJECT TO THE PCELICATION AS CENSOEIH) 
AND TAKK8 NO EKSPONSIBILITT FOB THB COEBSCTXESS OF THK STATEMENTS. 
THE NORTH SEA. 
THE discovery of a Gennan mine field of unknown 
extent twenty miles north of Tory Island 
(Donegal, Ireland) is a serious matter. The mines 
must have been placed there quite recently or 
something would have been sunk by them long ago. 
Now, it is impossible that any German mine-layer can 
have reached the spot under its own colours. Therefore, a 
neutral flag and probably a neutral vessel was employed. Now 
tchcre did that vessel sail from ? 
Mines are not things that are easily shipped without observa- 
tion, and they occupy quite a lot of space. Of course, they can 
be hidden under a screen of harmless cargo, but none the less there 
must be some very carefully organised scheme. 
The question certainly arises as to whether these mines have 
not been stored in harmless looking cases somewhere m our own 
territory in anticipation of Der Tag, and the question is how 
many more are Ij-ing " in bond " awaiting use ? It would be 
quite consonant vfith German thoroughness. 
Some years ago — though for obvious reasons the fact did 
not appear in the Press — a cache of arais was discovered on the 
East Coast, and a systematic search unearthed others at various 
unexpected places. If arms and explosives were imported well 
beforehand, why not mines ? 
Another point in connection with the Tory Island mine 
field is that it is very improbable that the mines are anchored. 
Anchored or not, they will presently break adrift and so are 
liable to be met with anywhere around those parts, a danger 
to friend and foe alike. ° 
The net result of all this is that sooner or later — probably 
sooner — considerable restrictions will have to be placed on all 
neutral shipping in or near British waters.* There are certain 
objections to imposing a systematic search, but the formation 
of rogi'Jar convoys could hardly be resented by any innocent 
neutral, for any delay would be more than compensated for by 
the risk avoided. 
As for our warships, the risks which they run from this 
kind of waafare is immense, and it also comes under the head 
of tlu . ngs which cannot be p rovided for, except hy the institution 
*tfir.co tho?e lines were written the Admiralty have imposed certain 
Natnctiona.— £o. ^ 
of a very strict convoy system for all neutrals using waters 
anywhere contiguous to our coasts. 
Next in import*ncQ to the discovery of the Tory Island 
mine field is that on October 31st the old cruiser Hermes waa 
submarined in the Straits of Dover. 
It has been known for some time that one or more German 
submarines have been hanging about in the Channel, and every 
effort has been made against our squadron off Ostend. 
The disquieting part of the affair is how and in what way 
the German submarines manage to maintain themselves without 
visible means of support. 
In " the Battle of the Coast " matters generally remain as 
heretofore. We learn from an official statement that the old 
battleship Venerable is engaged in the bombardment. She 
carries 12-inch guns, and the effect of these on the German 
trenches must be something very terrible. One of the famous 
German howitzers is said to have been destroyed by well-aimed 
fire from the 6-inch in one of our gunboats. Now that 12-inch 
guns have been imported, the German situation anywhere ncaj 
the coast must be distinctly unpleasant. 
THE MEDITERRANEAN. 
Turkey's entry into the war has been no surprise — the 
Gocben and Brcslau subtevfugc prepared us for it long ago. A 
fortnight ago I suggested that tiie flight of the Goehen before out 
little Gloucester might turn out, after all, to be an item of high 
strategy. In the Mediterranean itself the Goehe^^i had no chance ; 
in the Black Sea, if properly handled, she will neutralise or destroy 
the whole Eussian Black Sea Fleet. 
Prom the German point of view, immediate assets — beyond 
the bombardment of unfortified towns are not likely to be very 
great. Whatever the Turco-Gcrman Fleet may accomplish 
in the Black Sea it is abundantly clear that in some way or other 
Russia wUl reach Constantinople and hold it. 
When the world war is over, it is well on the cards that 
Russia and Greece may dispute as to who shall hold Byzantium, 
and Prussia may already be reckoning on some Phoenix resurrec- 
tion of the German Empire over that event. But, so far aa 
Turkey is concerned, it is the end of the Tui-ks in Europe. 
This, however, is neither here nor there at present. The 
central point is that thus early in the naval game the enemy 
U* 
