October 3, 1914 
LAND AND WATER 
accumulated a considerable mass of men at tliis point 
(at least eight, better ten divisions), a feint their 
effort was intended to be and a feint it will remain ; 
and the Trench commanders, if they can be certidn 
that the nunibers here are not very large, wiU not 
reinforce them from the centre or the west, the 
resistance to be opposed to the German on the Meuse; 
they will not weaken their line elsewhere ; they will 
continue to stake ever}i;hing upon the big tujiiing 
movement against the Upper Oise. Under that 
hypothesis the new German offensive on the Meuse, 
however alanning, will not be decisive. 
But if, in the other alternative, the Germans 
have really accumulated large masses here, even if they 
liave enough reserves to make their feint first a 
dangerous feint and from that an advance in force, then 
the new move may be of the utmost importance to the 
future of the war. The door has been opened. "With 
sufficient troops to mask Verdun and Toul upon either 
side of that now open door, a large force could appear 
in a veiy short time so near to the rear of the right 
wing of the main French line as to compel it to fall 
back, or, if it did not fall back rapidly enough, to 
involve it in disaster. 
And in order to see how this is we must turn to 
the third point, the distances involved and the 
dispositions of the troops so far as they are known. 
Nearly half of that is the ^vidth of the forest district 
of Argonne and the hilly country to the east of the 
Argonne again, and half-way to the Meuse is still 
hea\"ily wooded. The road and the railway line from 
Verdun to Ste. Menehould through the jDass of Les 
Islettes (where a Norfolk squire helped to win the 
battle of Valmy) are held by the French, to the north 
of whom, ruiining from Varennes to the big bend of the 
Meuse near Forges, lies the Crown Prince's army. It will 
be seen from the map that the left of this Array where it 
touches the Meuse is just out of range, and no more, 
to the north of the northermost forts of Verdun. 
Now the line through which the new German 
offensive, whether a feint or more seriously intended, 
had to pass — the fortified line Verdun-Toul — is, in 
its greatest length from its northernmost extremity on 
these same northern forts of Verdun to its southern- 
most extremity in the southernmost forts of Toul, 
well over 45 miles in extent. While the space 
between the two nearest points in the circle of forts 
round Toul and the circle of forts round Verdun is 
well over SO miles and nearer 35. Finally, a third 
measurement of the elements of this problem, the 
distance from the central point in this Verdun-Toul 
line, St. Mihiel, and a point right behind the right 
wing of the main French line such as Eevigny, is more 
than 25 but less than 30 miles. 
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The gi-eat body of the Allied line which lies 
across the country of Champagne temiinates and 
reposes towards the east upon the forest of Argonne, 
tlie upper course of the River Aisne, and the railway 
rtmning parallel to these upper reaches in the neigh- 
bourhood of Villc-sur-Tourbes. From this terminus 
or extreme right wing of the French main line, which 
is opposed to the great defensive German position that 
lias been held by the enemy for the last fortnight, you 
have to the outer works of Verdun a distance of some- 
what more than twenty miles — two days' marches. 
Let us put these distances together and see what 
they mean in time. With the Germans in possession 
of a crossing of the Meuse between Verdun and Toul, 
and about half way between those two fortresses, at 
St. Mihiel, the door to their advance iipon the rear of 
the main French line in Champagne is open at a point 
more than a day's march from Toul upon the south 
and more than a day's march, rather nearer two days' 
march, from Verdun upon the north. The German 
columns advancing westward, therefore, across tho 
Meuse at St. Mihiel need fear no sudden or unexpected 
7» 
