LAND AND WATER 
August 29, 1914 
follcTved tvith apprehension on the part of the United States, 
to whom our Oriental ally is a mcuacc in the sauio way that 
Germany has boon a menace to us for many years past — 
i.e., owing to the pressui-e of circumstances. 
So far ns Japan is conccmed, her quarrel with Germany 
is terribly genuine. A victory for Germany would mean 
something infinitely worse than the Eussian menace in the 
jiast. The t-erms of ptaco in the German schcmo of things 
include the handing over of Saigon and Hong Kong, possibly 
of Vladivostok also. 
In 1899, soon after Russia had taken Port Arthur, I had 
it from the Tsar's own lips, " We only took Port Arthur to 
keep the Germans out of it. We have no quarrel with Japan, 
but we do not trust Germany." 
Germany made up for things by " leasing " Kiao-Chau. 
liussia and Japan subsequently went to war, and Port Artliur 
is now Japanese. But after the war, when Kussia and Japan 
comparwl notes, they found German influence behind all the 
trouble, just as surely as when all England was shouting about 
the Dogger Bank aifair, the British Navy was watching, not 
the Russians, but the Germans. 
Tlicse details may not seem exactly germane to the present 
state of ailairs, but actually 
they are very much so. Gcr- 
ENEMY 
PROM SECCLT 6A<t 
ON THE. LATEST 
SCltNTlftC UlSt& 
iiiany had her own schemes of 
a Jajjanese alliance. Its tenns 
were probably about as reli- 
able as the alliance offered to 
Belgium, but that is a side 
issue. On the principle of 
Tinieo JJatmeos dona ferfTite-^, 
Japan has joined the Triple 
Entente. 
The final issue now rests 
with America. Will the 
United States sacrifice her 
trade interests to honour and 
the fight arjiinst Germany's 
l)id to rule the entire workl 1 
Or will America in 1911 do 
what she, at Napoleon's bid- 
ding, did in 1812 ? From the 
K.aisor's point of view she v.'ill. 
The hour is not yet, and 
further discussion of it can bo 
reserved for a more convenient 
£ca5on. 1 content myself here 
with indicating the possibili- 
ties which lie on the water. 
American public opinion wo 
are sxire of; but since Japan 
has entered into the World 
War we should not place 
too much dependence on ~ 
American bosses. Already Carnegie, of free library fame. ha.s 
made a better apology for the Kaiser's action than anything 
ever issued in Berlin. 
The fact is that this is the first war of modern times in 
which trade issues have been predominant. Great merchant 
navies have grown up in the steam era. They have grown up in 
profound peace. True, there have been wars, but this genera- 
tion has seen no war in which any appreciable commerce was 
at stake, and a World War like the present was in the catet^oi-y 
of the " unthinkable." " "^ 
At the present moment the Stars and Stripes is the only 
neutral flag of any account, and even it is not likely to remain 
useful to belligerents very long. The rulers of the sea will 
control the world's trade. 
According to German calculations in the past, we might 
destroy German trade as we have done, but v,o should do so 
at the expense of our own, because Germany would give us 
BO much trouble that all trade would pass to the U.S. flag. 
It may so pass; but only if Germany bo able to di.-^pute 
the mastery of the seas with us. More on this matter is likely 
(o be heard later on— it is even conceivable that one or two 
German-American millionaires may yet force the United 
.States into playing Germany's game. It is, anyway, one of 
the things that Germany counts on. 
We had our chance to stand out and take our gi-ucllino' 
m the Kaiser's own season. Sooner or later— probably 
Eooncr- the U.S.A. will have to decide on the same question. 
Ihe Kaisers bid for America has been Ions and hca 
ENEMY 
fO i.tCfi6T EA 
THE NORTH SEA. 
About the North Sea it is impossible to write fully. It is 
so veiy easy to give away something in perfect innocence. So 
far as I am concerned, 1 do not propose to deal with anything 
save T>"eek-old official reports, nor any too fully even v.ith these. 
Readers inust understand that in a life and death struggle like 
tlio present, restraint may bo necessary, even where official 
reports are concerned. 
So I confine myself to stating that the Gorman submarine 
U 15 has gone below to stay there; that the pretty unofficial 
£torir-s since published are bunkum pure and simple, and 
finally that the Germans are trying something which they are 
unlikely to pull off. 
Eveiything written about this war gets to Germany 
within an hour or so, and it would be sheer idiocy to satisfy 
natural public curiosity any further just at present. 
The only other thing that I can add is that the German 
submarines' service has been unexpectedly bold and daring. 
Our authorities credited it with being that, and — well, 
" things did not happen as expected " — by Germany. 
Presently, as many of the Gennans as are not Goelciu will 
come again to " a certain place." They will go below and stay 
there till the Judgment Day. 
That is nearly all tJiat is to be 
said about the matter. 
There is nothing to add, 
except that when the German 
authorities read this they will 
think it a bit of glorious bluff. 
"Righto." (German ofljcers 
commanding submarines, 
please note.) 
V 
>0' 
vy, 
ago 
depend 
the street has 
and what ^apolcon managed to do a hundred odd years 
IS possible of repetition to-day. Far greater issues dot 
.ni I resident Avilson than the British man in the street 
any idea of. 
trar 1^*" ^f''"'''"'; everything seems at " set fair." Commerce 
THE MEDITERRANEAN. 
The Austrian battleship 
Zriniji has now been officially 
sunk so many times by a single 
French shell that I am con- 
strained to imagine tliat the 
report may bo true. Other- 
wise I should have been 
entirely sceptical — mainly . 
along the argument that there 
is no conceivable reason why 
she should have been out to 
get hit. In this war of sur- 
prises, hov«-ever, one never 
knows. 
Otherwise, there is nothing 
to o-xpect in the Adriatic 
ibut a strict Franco-British 
blockade to the Austrians, 
varied with a few torpedo 
attacks. Battle fleet actions 
are excessively improbable for reasons stated last week. There 
may be, one — but only absolute lunacy can dictate it. 
THE FAR EAST, 
.Japan's action so far as the Far East is concerned docs not 
materially alter things. One v.-ay and anoXlier we alone are 
superior to anything of the German Navy in the Far East, but 
we have no troops for the necessary militai-y assault. Kiao- 
Chau will fall eventually, but it is likely to prove a second 
Port Arthur, even if (like the Russians at Port Arthur) 
reported guns have been reckoned as existing. According to 
my information the place is not really very strong — anyway, 
nothing like reported. And so the Japanese will either get 
it within a week, or else bes'cge it much as we besieged Sevas- 
topol in the Crimean War for many weaiy months. 
Everything depends on whether the officer commanding 
is Goehcn or otherwise. If he be sufficiently othenvisc, Kiac- 
Chau may yet remain German at the end of the war. This 
possibility at least should not be foi-gotten. 
For the rest, it may be as well to remember that Admirnl 
Kuroi (who commanded the naval land battery which sunk 
the Russian Fleet at Port Arthur) is somewhere in the Pacific 
with the Asama and Azuma. He is a very eld friend of mine, 
and I do not want to puff him unduly. But — if the betting 
fraternity has turned from horses to ships — I will give them 
tlie tip that it is a two to one that Kuroi is not the central 
figure in the Far East operations. If the Germans at sea 
evade him — all right. If they meet his two cruisers — God 
helij them ! 
SITUATION IN THE ATLANTIC. 
YeiT little is really known about this, 
that German commerce destroyers are being 
It would appear 
.5 too harried by 
British cruisers to do much mischief. This situation should 
continue till the corsairs die out automatically. There is, 
u* 
