LAND AND AV^ATEE 
August 29, 1014 
foUowctl with apprehension on the part of the United States, 
to i\honi our Oriental ally is a mciiaco in the saino way that 
Germany has been a menace to us for many ycais past — 
i.e., owing to tho pressure of ciix-uinstanccs. 
So far as Japan is conccnied, her quarrel with Germany 
is terribly genuine. A victoi-y for Germany would mean 
BOHiethiiig infinitely worse than tho Eussian menace in tlie 
past^ The t^cmis of peace in tho German scheme of things 
include the handing over of Saigon and lloug Kong, possibly 
vi Vladivostok also. 
In 1899, soon after Russia had taken Port Arthur, I had 
it from the Tsar's own lips, '• We only took Port Arthur to 
ket-p the Germans out of it. We have no quarrel with Japan, 
LuL we do not trust Germany." 
Germany made up for tilings by " lea.sing " Kiao-Chau. 
Russia and Japan subsequently went to war, and Port Arthur 
is now Japanese. But aiter the war, when Russia r.nd Japan 
comj>ared notes, they found German infiiicnce behind all tlio 
trouble, just as surely as when all England was shouting about 
the Dogger Bank affair, tho British Navy was watching, not 
the Russians, but the Germans. 
These details may not seem exactly germane to tho present 
state of alfairs, but actually 
they are very much so. Ger- 
iiuny had her own schemes of 
a Japanese alliance. Its temis 
were probably about as reli- 
able as tho alliance offered to 
Belgium, but that is a side 
issue. On tJie principle of 
Timto Danarot <lona fercutti', 
Japan has joined the Triple 
Entente. 
The final issue now rests 
with America. Will the 
United States sacrifice her 
trade interests to honour and 
the fight ajiinst Germany's 
bid to rule the entire world ? 
Or will America in 1914 do 
what she, at Napoleon's bid- 
ding, did in 1812 ? From the 
Kaiser's point of view she will. 
The hour is not yet, and 
further discussion of it can he 
reserved for a more convenient 
season. 1 content myself here 
with indicating the possibili- 
ties which lie on tho water. 
American public opinion we 
are sure of ; but since Japan 
lias entered into tho World 
War we should not placo 
too much dependence on 
Americaji bosses. Already Carnegie, of free library fame, has 
made a better apology for tho Kaiser's action than anything 
ever issued in Berlin. " 
The fact is that this is the first war of modern times in 
which trade issues have been predominant. Great merchant 
navies have gi-own up in the st«am era. They have grown up in 
profound peace. True, there have been wars, but this genera- 
irifi'o' "^A "w"" M Z""'^}^ ""y appreciable commerce was 
THE NORTH SEA. 
About the North Sea it is impossible to write fully. It is 
£0 very easy to give away something in perfect innocence. So 
far as I am concerned, I do not propose to deal with anything 
save week-old official reports, nor any too fully even with these. 
Readers must understand that in a life and death struggle like 
tho present, restraint may be necessary, even where °ofiicial 
reports are concerned. 
So I confine myself to stating that the German submarine 
U 15 has gone below to stay there; that the pretty uuofEcial 
stories since published are bunkum pure and simple, and 
finally (hat the Germana aro trying something which they are 
unlikely to pull o£F. 
Everything written about this war gets to Germany 
within an hour or so, and it would be sheer idiocy to satisfy 
natural public curiosity any further just ab present. 
Tho only other thing that I can add is that the Gcnnan 
submarines' service has been unexpectedly bold and darin". 
Our authorities credited it with lacing that, and— well, 
" things did not happen as expected " — by Germany. 
Presently, as many of the Gennans as aro not Goelcns will 
come again to " a certain place." Tlicy will go below and stay 
there till the Judgment Day. 
That is nearly all that is to be 
said about the mattez'. 
There is nothing to add, 
except that when tlie German 
authorities read this they will 
think it a bit of glorious bluff. 
" Righto." (German ofF.cera 
commanding submarines, 
please note.) 
THE MEDITERRANEAN. 
The Austrian battleship 
Zrinyi has now been officially 
sunk so many times by a single 
French shell that I am con- 
strained to imagine that the 
report may be true. Other- 
wise I should have been 
entirely sceptical — mainly 
along the argument that there 
is no conceivable reason wliy 
she should have been out to 
get hit. In this war of sur- 
prises, however, one never 
knows. 
Otherwise, there is nothing 
to e.xpect in the Adriatic 
but a strict Franco-British 
blockade to tho Austriaiis, 
varied with a few torpedo 
attacks. Battle fleet actions 
are excessively improbable for reasons stated last week. There 
may be one — but only absolute lunacy can dictate it. 
THE FAR EAST. 
Japan's action so far as the Far East is concenicd docs not 
materially alter things. One way and anoVher we alone are 
superior to anything of the Gei-man Navy in the Far East, but 
we have no troops for the nccessaiy military assault. Kiao- 
Chau will fall eventually, but it is likely to prove a second 
^»..f I fl ^J^^" "^"'^ *''^ ^^^'"^ '^"^ Stripes is the only ^°it Arthur, even if (like the Russians at Port Arthur) 
rilTf, I f f n- "^ account, and even it is not likely to remain imported guns have been reckoned as existing. According to 
.Ww^iVk ^ ^^fi"^.^ I"^ ^''"S- The rulers of the sea will "7 information the place is not really very strong— anywav. 
i 1 ,, ''®"»&frf°t8 very long. The rulers of the sea 
control the world's trade 
dirovHer^jTn ?T"'' ^'^^'f''-^^^^ '° the past, we might 
at h7eS^ nf "^^ '' "\''"^' ^°"^' ^"t we should do^so 
^„ ii I .P^^ ^. •'"'■ '"^"' ^^''"se Germany would sive us 
so much trouble that all trade would pass to the U.S 1^ 
It may so pass; but only if Germany be able to dispute 
fV,,^.,, A ■ "TT!*^ '« e^-en conceivable that one or two 
sS n1o":E/r"'"""f^ ^^ ^'' ^°-« the Unitl 
theth^nrtlte^maritso^^ '' ''' ^"^-^^'' "^ °^ 
in th:r Ktis:^-; tn's^so.r'srne^"'^ ^^',%°"^ ^"^"'"^ 
Eooner— the USA \^i}} ^«™- sooner or later— probably 
The KaSe?', b^, ^'"7 ^"^ ^^"f"^ °" ^'^^ ^^m« question. ^ 
is possible of^.epetit on today Far ^ ^^^ °^^ ^T^ ^S« 
on President Wi son than th«^R f I ^^''^^'" '''"^^ ''^P"''' 
any idea of. ^^^ ^'^^"^^ """^ '" ^hc street has 
At present evei7thing seems at 
tvar IS not a subject for headlines. 
BO dull and interestino-. 
my information the place is not really very strong — anyway, 
nothing like reported. And so tho Japanese wilf either get 
it within a week, or else besiege it much as wc besieged Sevas- 
topol jn the Crimean War for many weary months. 
• ■'^^''iT'-liiug depends on whether the officer commanding 
isCoeben or otherwise. If ho be sufficiently otherwise, Kiao" 
Chau may yet remain German at tho end of tho war. This 
possibility at least should not be forgotten. 
For the rest, it may be as well to remember that Admiral 
Kuroi (who commanded the naval land battery which sunk 
the Russian Fleet at Port Arthur) is somewhere in the Pacific 
with the A.^(rma and A:um(r. He is a very old friend of mine, 
and I do not want to puff him unduly. But— if tho betting 
Jrateruity has turned from horses to ships— I will give thenx 
tlie tip that it IS a two to one that Kuroi is not the central 
figure in tho Far East operations. If the Germans at sea 
evade him- all right. If they meet his two cruisers-God 
help them ! 
set fair." Commerce 
It is purely nautical, and 
SITUATION 
little 
IN THE ATLANTIC. 
_ery little is really known about this. It would appear 
that German commerce destroyers are being too harried by 
British ennsers to do much mischief. This situation should 
continue till the coi-sairs die out automatically. There is, 
W» 
