October 3, 1914 
LAND AND WATER 
accumulated a considerable mass of men at tliis point 
(at least eight, better ten divisions), a feint their 
effort was intended to be and a feint it will remain ; 
and the French commanders, if they can be certain 
that the numbers here are not very large, will not 
reinforce them from the centre or the west, the 
resistiince to be opposed to the German on the Meuse ; 
they will not weaken their line elsewhere ; they will 
continue to stake everything upon the big turning 
movement against the Upper Oise. Under tliat 
liypothesis the new German offensive on the Meuse, 
however alanning, will not be decisive. 
But if, in the other alternative, the Germans 
have really accumulated large masses here, even if they 
liave enough reserves to make their feint first a 
dangerous feint and from that an advance in force, then 
the new move may be of the utmost importance to the 
future of the war. The door has been opened. With 
sufficient troops to mask Verdun and Toul upon either 
side of that now open door, a large force could appear 
in a very short time so near to the rear of the right 
wing of the main French line as to compel it to fall 
back, or, if it did not fall back rapidly enough, to 
involve it in disaster. 
And in order to see how this is we must turn to 
the third point, the distances involved and the 
dispositions of the troops so far as they are known. 
Nearly half of that is the width of the forest district 
of Argonne and the hilly country to the east of the 
Argonne again, and half-way to the Meuse is still 
heavily wooded. The road and the railway line from 
Verdun to Ste. Menehould through the j^ass of Les 
Islettes (where a Norfolk squire helped to v/in the 
battle of \'almy) are held by the French, to the north 
of whom, running from Varennes to the big bend of the 
Meuse near Forges, lies the Crown Prince's army. It will 
be seen from the map that the left of this Army where it 
touches the Meuse is just out of range, and no more, 
to the noi-th of the northennost forts of Verdun. 
Now the line through which the new German 
offensive, whether a feint or more seriously intended, 
had to pass — ^the fortified line Verdun-Toul — is, in 
its greatest length from its northernmost extremity on 
these same northern forts of Verdun to its southern- 
most extremity in the southernmost forts of Toul, 
well over 45 miles in extent. While the space 
between the two nearest points in the circle of forts 
round Toul and the cii-cle of forts round Verdun is 
well over 30 miles and neai-er 35. Finally, a third 
measurement of the elements of this problem, the 
distance from the central point in this Verdun-Toul 
line, St. Mihiel, and a point right behind the right 
wing of the main French line such as Eevigny, is more 
than 25 but less than 30 miles. 
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The gieat body of the Allied line which lies 
across the country of Champagne terminates and 
reposes towards the east upon the forest of Argonne, 
the upper course of the River Aisne, and the railway 
running parallel to these upper reaches in the neigh- 
bourhood of Ville-sur-Tourbes. From this terminus 
or extreme right wing of the French main line, which 
is opposed to tiie gi-eat defensive German position that 
has been held by the enemy for the last fortnight, you 
have to the outer works of Verdun a distance of some- 
what more than twenty miles — ^two days' marches. 
Let us put these distances together and see what 
they mean in time. With the Gennans in possession 
of a crossing of the Meu.se between Verdun and Toul, 
and about half Avay between those two fortresses, at 
St. Mihiel, the door to their advance upon the rear of 
the main French line in Champagne is open at a point 
more than a day's march from Toul upon the south 
and more than a day's march, rather nearer two days* 
march, from Verdun upon the north. Tlrte German 
columns advancing westward, therefore, across the 
Meuse at St. Mihiel need feai- no sudden or unexpected 
7» 
