October 3, 1914 
LAND AXD WATER 
fibjoctive as " moral effect " on the population of Ijulia. Anglo- 
Indians tell me that tliey think that the Emden's performances 
in this direction are, they surmise, already very considerable, 
and that unless she is speedily brought to book they will be 
greater still. 
There is every reason to believe that this is what the Gennans 
are trying to do. " Shake confidence in the British Raj " is 
much more probably the order than '' Destroy British trade by 
every means in your power." 
The Emden, of course, will ultimately be captured or 
destroyed. This may easily happen before these lines are in 
print, especially as she can now no longer retreat safely to German 
New Guinea or the Bismarck Archipelago. 
The Australian forces have now virtually captured the 
whole of these German possessions, although the number of 
men engaged compared to the area occupied is such that con- 
siderable bays for replenishing supplies may yet be available. 
For the rest, it may be conceded that if the captain of the 
Enulen lives through he will certainly have earned special 
promotion for having conducted matters against us along the best 
possible scientific lines. His ship is undoubtedly being well 
handled, and it will do us no harm to remember that here, as 
elsewhere, the Germans have made no bad mistakes, since the 
initial error of the Goeben. 
H\V TO IKDICATS THI PLACES WUERI THIS OEBMAN CJiUISEBS 
HATB OPEBATED. 
KA — EABLSBUHK, KO — K0N108BBE0, K.W. — KAISER WILHELJI DER 
GR088E, D — DRESDEN, E — EMDEN (tHII KAI.SER WILHELM DER 
OROSSE'S effort off ICELAND WAS UERELT A FISUINQ BOAT). 
This should not be taken to imply that we have made 
mistakes, but it should certainly be taken as implying that 
the task being accomplished by our Navy is a very considerable 
one ; that we have certain weak points, that the Germans have 
Jihown themselves singularly cognisant of these, and that the 
British public must not expect bricks to be made without straw. 
' There is now every reason to believe that the apparent 
incoherence of the German commerce war in the early days was 
part of a settled and clever scheme — intended to lull us into a 
false sense of security. 
But as the just issued official list, corrected to September 23rd, 
only reports a total bag of twelve ships of about 59,000 tons 
between August 6th and September 18th, and at least six raiders 
were employed, it is abundantly clear that — although only two 
corsairs (both armed Uners) have been disposed of — the British 
Navy has certainly cried " Check " to most of the German 
jnoves. This is the utmost that we can reasonably expect 
outside the chapter of luck and accident. 
The list of captures is somewhat interesting. It is :— 
Emd'^n 6 ships totally 20,443 tons. 
Dresden 2 „ „ 29,988 „ 
Kalier Wilhelm dtr Qroue ., 2 „ „ 2,458 „ 
Konigsherg ,. . . . , I „ „ C,800 „ 
KarUruht ., .. . . I „ „ 4,650 „ 
Cap Trafalgar. . ,. .. „ „ „ 
The Kaiser Wilhelm der Grosse had also a fishing boat of 
227 tons to lier credit account. The total number of fishing 
l)oat8 destroyed by warships in and around the North Sea ia 
twenty-three. 
The same report gives the total bag by mines as eight Briti.sh, 
five Danes, one Swede, and one Norwegian. That is to say, 
taking proportions into account, the bulk of the damage has been 
•done to neutral merchant .shipping. Only the Dutch have been 
fortunate enough to sustain no loss. 
The Emden hfis reappeared and sunk four Britisli merchant 
«hips valued at apj roximately £2(iO,()()0. This e.\2)]oit, however, 
does not materially ail'cct the main situation. 
THE BALTIC. 
Reports from various sources, which on the face of them 
appear to be quite authentic, have been received to the effect 
that the Russian armoured cruiser Bayan has sunk a German 
cruiser and two German torpedo boats which she encountered 
mine-laying in the Baltic. The story of the cruiser is improbable, 
and it is far more likely that the sunken ship is one of the special 
mine-layers, Albatross or Nautilus, which displace somewhere 
around 2,000 tons and arc capable of from twenty to twenty -one 
knots speed. These boats carry 400 mines each. Or it may 
have been the old fifteen-knot PelUcan, which is the third regular 
mine-layer of the German Navy. 
Pending some further official German report on the matter, 
it may be wiser to accept the whole story with a certain amount 
of caution. Generally speaking, German reports have been 
quite as correct as our own, or any of those issued by our Allies. 
The story of the two German divisions engaging each other 
which I commented on last week has not been officially reported 
in Germany, but that omission is merely human nature. Their 
official story of the Heligoland affair was quite accurate, and it 
is vouched for by the circumstance that they admit a heavier 
loss than we had claimed in our own official report. 
Con.sequently, we had best take the German official as true. 
The probable real happening is that the Bayan sank one mine- 
layer and two nondescripts which were with her. This much 
we can take between the lines of the somewhat vague German 
official statement. 
Everything done by Germany to date has been absolutely 
according to plans and the losses sustained have been relatively 
sUght, probably less than the Germans had anticipated. In the 
Baltic Russia is playing against Germany a practically similar 
game to that which the Germans are playing against us in the 
North Sea. Germany appears to be keeping open her 
Scandinavian trade, which just now is of immense importance 
to her. 
In another month or so a fresh situation will arrive, because 
the ice will be beginning to form. At present, so far as has 
been reported, Libau is the Russian naval base. Libau ^is an 
ice-free harbour, but, on the other hand, its fortifications are weak, 
and it is doubtful whether the Russians will risk being blockaded 
in it. It is by no means improbable that they will shortly retire 
on Kronstadt, where — according to the usual peace programme — 
they would be frozen in. 
In this connection everything depends upon how soon 
the battleships of the Gangoot class can be got ready for sea. 
Not only are these vessels altogether superior in fighting value 
to the German reserve vessels which are operating in the Baltic, 
but each of them is — by a remarkable stroke of Russian 
Admiralty prescience — fitted with an ice-breaker bow. Conse- 
quently, if the Russians retire on Kronstadt, it by no means 
follows that they will be demobilised there, as the Germans 
may be inclined to calculate. 
I am by no means sure that of the two menaces from which 
the German Fleet suffers, the British Fleet in the North Sea 
and the Russian Fleet in the Baltic, the Russian may not be 
the greater menace of the two, once the new ships are ready. 
The " reason why " is as follows : 
From the general position we can gather that the German 
Admiralty in its plans has made full allowance for the British 
blockade, and all that it has accomplished. But it is by no 
means so clear that they made sufficient allowance for the factor 
of the Russian Fleet, and its possible influence on their trade 
with Sweden. The Press campaign which the German agents 
are carrying on in Sweden is confirmation of this theory. Sweden, 
as I mentioned last week, is in the unfortunate position of having 
long and grave suspicions of Russia and her designs, and to that 
extent she was thrown into the arms of Germany. She by now 
is fully aware of the German attitude to weak neutrals which 
may be convenient to her. All the same, however, it is extremely 
improbable that in any circumstances Sweden will take sides. 
If she did, her conflicting interests would probably incline her 
to Germany, against whom she has no past grievance and against 
whom she has no frontier. We have to remember that every 
patriotic Swede cherishes against Russia on account of Finland, 
much the same kind of feeling that every patriotic Dane has 
against Germany on account of Schleswig-Holstein. 
THE NORTH SEA. 
Reading bet«-een the lines, the Admiralty preface to the 
reports of the surviving commanding officers of the three 
submarined Crcssies is to the effect that no dictates of humanity 
should be allowed to interfere with the military duties of warships 
This is quite right. To blame the Germans for taking advantage 
of the fact is foolish — " war is war." 
On the other hand, the official reports of the commanding 
officers make it abundantly clear that the Ahonhir was generally 
considered to have struck a mine, and that no submarine danger 
was apprehended. 
13» 
