October 17, 1914 
LAND xi N D WATER 
As to the troops that will be actually released 
from before Antwerp we have definite evidence. They 
are not troops of the first line. They are reserves, 
and for the most part reserves of the second class. 
Upon this all evidence agi-ees. German witnesses are 
silent ; and Belgian, English, and French witnesses 
who have been able to test the matter in action are in 
no doubt. As to what new troops may be coming 
over common sense can guide us. The fall of Antwerp 
docs not send against the flank of the Allied line 
young, new and fully trained troops. It can send 
new troops ; it can send young troops ; it can send 
old reservists. But it will not and cannot send first-class 
material. It will send men of the latest hardly tramed 
le\ies and of the oldest and Avorse reserves — many of 
tlicm also but partially trained. It cannot do what 
it did two weeks ago at Eoye and at Arras. 
The fall of Antwerp will release, it must be 
remembered, a large siege train ; but that large siege 
train has been in existence all these weeks since the 
fall of Maubeuge ; and the immediate work before the 
German army is not a new siege, but the release of its 
main communications between Noyon and Belgium 
from peril. 
Now there are two ways in which this release may 
be effected. The Allied line which runs up opposed 
to the west front of the enemy from the corner 
where the Aisue joins the Oise up to and beyond the 
J^elgiau frontier, may be pierced or it may be turned. 
And the last question we have to ask about this new 
body of men which the fall of Antwerp will, directly 
and indirectly, let loose upon our flank from the Franco- 
Belgian frontier around Lille, is the direction in which 
this body wiU be launched. If the Germans still 
think they can break the AUied line they will send 
these reinforcing bodies of theirs east of Lille, and 
down to the An-as district, where they have ah-eady 
tried to break the line and failed, or to the Eoye district 
further south, where they have also tried to break 
it and failed. If, as is more probable, they propose 
to outflank and to turn the Allied line, then they will 
launch their new forces upon the district westward of 
Lille, that is, between Lille and the sea. We shall see 
which they do, but it seems probable at this moment 
of writing, the afternoon of Tuesday, Oct. 13th, that 
they should attempt the latter adventure. 
In order to see why this should be, let us briefly 
consider what the fortunes of this West front have 
been during the last month and are to-day. 
II. 
THE WEST FRONT, ROYE— ARRAS. 
Briefly, the situation uj^on the west front, which 
makes one believe that the new German reinforce- 
ment will rather attempt to outflank us by LiUe than 
to cut us further south is as follows : 
Tlie line held by the enemy east and west, right 
across Clia-.npagne, from Noyon to the Argonne, was, 
5is we have seen, capable of envelopment. Its right, 
or western flank up north of Noyon towards the 
Belgian frontier, was exposed. But since the 
numbers were nearly equal on both sides, and since 
a modem turning movement involves the use of great 
numbei-s and of railways, and can be watched from 
the air as well as iu older fashion, the attempt of 
the French to creep northward and outflank was 
continually met by further Gennan reinforcement, 
which credit northward and tried in its turn to 
outflank the French, until the line went clawing up 
northward with each attempt of the one party to get 
roimd the other, so that within three weeks it had 
btretclied about seventy miles and was touching on 
the Belgian frontier. Neither party being able to 
outflank the otl er, an attempt was made upon either 
side to outflank the opponeut's line on this west 
front. The progressive extension of the two 
antagonists passed up through Eoye, through Albert, 
through Arras, and at last to a point about ten miles 
south of Lille. 
It must be particularly noted that in this attempt 
the Germans had a numerical superiority. They 
outnumbered and still outnumber the Allies. They 
brought up great masses from their centre and their 
left. They matle three attempts to break the French 
line, each of which had a considerable measure of 
success, and each of which failed. One was the 
attempt round the town of Eoye, the other to the 
north again round the town of Albert, the third and 
last round about the town of Ai-ras to the north again. 
^ attack 
Attack to cut 
♦»i .frRMENTIERES 
, ,-COMBLES 
»i.?tf''^--,.//,FEROK«E 
STQUENTiM 
noyon 
COMflEGKE 
THE ALTEBNATIVB USK OF GERMAN KKINFORCEMSNTS EITHKR TO 
CUT OR TO OUTFLANK TDB ALLIED LINE, 
In this diagram I have roughly suggested 
these three " bulges " which the Gennans pushed out 
without succeeding in breaking the French line. 
Every one of these bulges (or " salients ") has 
been thrown back again. Eoye is reoccupied by the 
French, who are now also either attacking or occupying 
Lassigny. They have long ago got back Albert. 
They are far to the east of AiTas, which they re!»ok 
last week. 
III. 
THE GATE AT ST. MIHIEL. 
Tliere is no need, in connection with the third 
element in this week's critical situation, to reproduce 
at length the description given on the past of the 
"open door" at St. Mihiel on th*e Upper Meuse. 
Two diagrams will suffice to recall it to the reader's 
recollection. The first diagram shows why the 
S* 
