LAND AND WATER 
Noyember 21, 1914. 
'dead and the seriously wounded, the balance in our 
favour and against them is higher still. 
But when all this is said, there still remains a 
fchief element of calculation in the estimate of con- 
traiituig strength between the two opposing groups 
of nations and it is to this element I now propose 
to turn. 
The war has proved the trutJi of a number of 
conjectures generally made durhig the long peace 
before its outbreak. It has further proved tlic 
exactitude of certain German calculations which 
French opinion in particular was apt to criticise. 
But in other things it has proved the truth of cer- 
tain French theories upon modern war which Ger- 
man opinion refused. 
For instance, the German school have proved 
amply justified in their claim that modern perma- 
nent fortification of the type of the ring fortress is 
quickly dominated by modern howitzer fire ; and 
in this the French opinion was wrong. On the 
other hand, the prime claim of French strategy 
that even with a modern conscript army a smaller 
number in retreat could hold a pursuer until the 
detached reserve pinned that pursuer, has proved 
quite unexpectedly sound, though at terrible ex- 
pense ; it was the most risky doctrine of all and the 
most debated. 
Many other instances might be given, but 
without going into the origins of these theories or 
to the extent in which they have been proved or 
disproved, let us consider what strength and weak- 
ness the Land War has shown on either side, and 
what tendencies it promises for the future. 
L— THE HOWITZERS. 
The first thing we note is the numerical supe- 
riority of the German heavy artillery. I say ad- 
visedly the " numerical " superiority, because it is 
at this moment of the utmost importance for us to 
recognise that neither the weapons in themselves, 
nor the proiectiles they use, are superior to those 
in the hands of the Allies. The one superiority 
the Germans have in this matter is that of num- 
bers. Not that the 420mm. howitzer does not 
exist. It does exist, but it is too big to be used 
save under quite exceptional circumstances. The 
two guns which have done the work against for- 
tresses have been the 280mm. howitzer with a maxi- 
mum range of not quite 11 kilometres and a shell 
of about a quarter of a ton, and a second gun of 
an approximate calibre of eight inches, or about 
200mm., which can also be used in the field. 
Neither of these guns needs an artificial concrete 
platform. Both can pass ordinary bridges and 
travel along ordinary roads; the largest indi- 
vidual weight of one of their portions being only 
just over six tons in the case of the stronger 
weapon, and the total weight not fifteen tons when 
all is put together, while the lesser weapon is 
approximately lighter in tlie proportion of 5 to 13 
— il weighs, all told, no more than six tons. 
Now 
* * * • 
the real reason that the heavy German artillery 
has dominated as it has, not only against for- 
tresses, but also in the extended field fighting over 
trenches, lies, as I have said, in the very great 
superiority in number which the enemy here pos- 
sess. And this superiority they also enjoy over 
our Russian Allies in the same matter. 
As against this superioritv, however, we must 
set three things : — 
(2) Large artillery of the sort mentioned can 
be produced, though only after a certain number 
of weeks. 
* * * J* 
The idea that 
Essen can handle larger masses of steel than the 
foundries of the Allies is nonsense ; if anything, 
Creusot has a superiority on that point. 
(3) The whole value of any form of artillery 
fire, but particularly of howitzer fire, lies in the 
explosive contained by the shell, and in this re- 
spect, as I was pointing out last week, the French 
have a clear superiority. 
II.— FIELD ARTILLERY. 
In this department, v/hich, taking all in all, 
is the most important, for it is (a) the point in 
which modern services most differ, and {h) that 
which has the most decisive effect, especially in 
the holding of superior numbers by inferior, the 
Allied Powers have a clean and definite advantage 
over the enemy. The German gun and the Aus- 
trian gun are less serviceable than the Russian, 
less serviceable than the English 18-pounder (heavy 
and proportionately slow as that weapon must be), 
and wholly inferior to the French 75mm., which for 
rapidity and accuracy of fire, for accuracy of tim- 
ing, and for extreme mobility in the field has no 
rival. It is perhaps unfortunate that we cannot 
at this stage of the war gather sufficient evidence 
of the effect this weapon has had upon the cam- 
paign. But I believe it will be found when the full 
history of the war can be written that no other 
one material factor counted either in the pursuit 
over the Marne or in the subsequent holding of 
the numerically superior German counter offen- 
sive, as did this weapon. In contrast to it the 
German 77nim. field gun has been proved not 
nearly so mobile in the field (though slightly 
lighter), but slower in its fire. 
« « « • 
III.— THE SUPPLY OF MEN. 
(a) Germans. 
Here we have the crucial point of all. It is 
here that even experts have differed most widely 
and that the most widely divergent estimates have 
been arrived at. 
We must, in order to get a just view, consider 
much more than the mere figures. We must con- 
sider social structure, doctrines upon training, the 
supply of officers and instructors, time required for 
producing men who can take the field (1) brigaded 
with mature elements; (2) independently of 
mature elements ; the proportion of guns that can 
be_ found for the new leyies, and twenty other 
things besides the mere question of how many adult 
males are to be discovered in each of the belligerent 
countries. 
Each of these subsidiary considerations 
" weights " the statistics of mere numbers. There 
is no space available in a general article of this 
sort to go into any very great detail, but rough 
conclusions can be arrived at which present with 
sufficient justice a general view. I will this week 
consider the strength of Germany in this matter, 
and in articles to follow that of Austria and the 
Allies. 
Upon the real military strength of Germany 
numerically stated there have been so many wild 
conjectvires in the Press that it is as well for any 
a? 
