November 28, 1914. 
LAND AND WATER 
his 21st year is examined, and where every man fit much larger, for as men advance in age the pro- 
for actual service in the field who can be passed at portion physically incapable of active service veiy 
all, is noted. I have before me the figures of the rapidly increases. 
French Service corresponding to the same year as 
the figures of the German census. I find that the 
number of men in their 21st year available was 
301,407, and I find that of these the number who 
passed the doctor as ready for inunediate service 
was 208,495. The difference between these twa 
figures is 92,952. That is, 30.8 per cent, of the 
total number. It is true that not all this 30.8 per 
cent, of the young manhood of the nation repre- 
sents those who cannot be passed as immediately 
and actually fit for sendee in the field. A number 
amounting to 10.7 per cent, are " adjourned " ; 
that is, thcv are found not fit for immediate active 
An examination of these detailed figures pro- 
duces just the same result for the deductions re- 
quired by the "running" of the country during a 
war. If France needs, as she does, three-quarters of 
a million below the age of 45 to make clothes, pre- 
pare food, run the railways, and the ships and all 
the rest of it, then Germany would, in the same 
proportion, require 1,315,000. For the German 
numbers of adult males are to the French as 100 
to 57. But she requires, as a fact, enormously 
more. She has to use much more frequently for 
transport from east to west a much larger system 
of military railways ; she has, by the very defini- 
service on account of some defect which time may tion of these superior nimibers, to provide a much 
cure ; 3.8 per cent, will be men drafted into the larger nimiber for clerical work. She has by her 
non-active parts of the Service where physical de- determination not to suppress as France has 
feets of a certain kind are not a hindrance, and largely done, andEnglandpartly done, the normal 
so forth. But we are perfectly safe in putting the life of the capital, to use yet another category. 
number which cannot immediately be taken for She has, imder the imperative command of modern 
service in the field, or at any rate which will not industrial conditions to keep her furnaces alight. 
be in any wise system of recruiting, at over 25 per and her manufactories at least going at however 
cent, of the complete total of young men of 21 , even reduced a speed, and to allow for this no more than 
in an agricultural country such as is France. And an addition of 170,000 to the strict numerical pro- 
modern Germany has long ceased to be of that portion of 1,315,000 to be thus deducted from the 
healthy type ; it is already more than half urban total of adult males fit for military service is an 
and industrial. That is why its present active absurdly low computation. 
army is selected in a larger proportion from its In a word, we are driven by a detailed examina- 
agricultural districts than from the towns. tion even more than we are driven by a considera- 
But 25 per cent, of 11,040,000 is 2,760,000;' tion of round figures, to the conclusion that the 
that is, nearly a quarter of a million more than the real reserve of untrained men behind the trained 
2^ millions which I allowed in rough figures for the n^en of the army, and excluding boys below 21, is 
necessary physical exemptions. As a matter of certainly not more than two million, and almost as 
fact, the actual figures of exemption will be very certainly less than two million. 
THE WAR BY WATER. 
By FRED T. JANE. 
NOTE.— Thli ArttcU hti been labinltted to thi Preii Bnreaa, which dtei not object to thi poblic&tioa at ceniorid, tnl taksi so 
roipoDiibilitr for the correetnoH of the ttttementt. 
THE BLACK SEA. 
THE war continues to be a war o£ surprises. Oq 
Wednesday, NoTember 18, the Russian Battle 
Fleet sighted the Goeben and Breslau in misty 
weather twenty-five miles from KherSones Light- 
house, proceeding towards Yalta, which, presuai- 
ably, they intended to bombard. 
The exact number of Russian battleships Is not stated, 
but, supposing it to have consisted of all the available effeo- 
tive battleships — that is to say, the levstafi, loann Zlatoust, 
Pentelimon, and Rostilav, mounting between them twelve 12- 
inch guns and four 10-inch guns — paper superiority rested 
easily with the Goeben, carrying ten 11 -inch guns, because the 
Russian guns are old, and slow firing — the Goeben' s modern, 
rapid firing, and of longer range. For show purposes the 
Goeben has been timed to load in five seconds. The official 
■" rate of fire " is three rounds every two minutes, but consider- 
ably more rapid fire has been claimed for her, and six roundj 
a minute has actually been fired from one of her turrets. la 
any case, she should be capable of firing about three rounds 
to the Russian one under battle conditions. Even if, for tha 
sake of the utmost moderation, we say two, we still get twenty 
11-inoh projectiles against a maximum of a dozen 12-inch and 
four 10-incli — the 11-inch much the more powerful gun. And 
if there be any truth in the Turkish report as to the Russian 
force — two battleships and five other vessels, the Goeben had a 
superiority of at least 20 to 8, probablv 30 to 8, quite possibly 
40 to 8. ' ■ 
Add to this that the Russian speed when new was only 
16 knots, and is now probably less on account of age; while 
the Goeben is a new ship which did 28 knots on trial. Theo- 
retically, therefore, she had merely to keep aw.iy and pound 
fehe Russians to destruction without loss to herself. 
No one with any knowledge of naval affairs would have 
prophesied anything but an easy victory for the Goeben, Sha 
had (on paper) merely to go in and win. 
Instead of that, however, she attempted to evade aotijn. 
The exact place at which she was met with has not been stated, 
but it seems to have been somewhere near the point indicated 
by an X in the map, because the slow Russian ships in some 
way or other pinned her in to the coast and forced action, a 
very daring proceedings^ which, however^ was absolutely justi- 
fied by the sequel. 
THB BLACK SKA OPEfiAl'IOifa. 
THE X INDICATES THE PKOBABLB SCENH Ot THB BATTLB. 
At 8,000 yards the Russian battleship /et;«io/J,the flagship, 
opened fire with a salvo and got in first blow, setting the 
Goeben on fire amidships. 
According to the Russian reportBi the Goeben only got on9 
l\* 
