December 5, 1914. 
LAND AND WATER 
occupation by their fertility or the ease of their 
defence, this planting of outposts amid the heathen, 
was part of a universal European policy, and the 
momentum of this policy carried it on long after 
the Asiatic Magyars were converted in the 
eleventh century. 
You have, then, this principal fact with regard 
to Hungary upon which the whole of the present 
military policy, of Russia in this region is built: 
That political Hungary is much larger than the 
real Hungary, and that the real Hungary is dis- 
turbed by, and in perpetual contrast with not only 
the great German-speaking mass to the east, which 
it dislikes and is uneasily yoked to, but also Avith 
German-speaking colonies in its midst. 
To the south, as again to the north, you have 
(indicated on the sketch map by horizontal lines) 
the mass of Slavonic speech and race: Poles, 
Slovacs, and Ruthenians to the north; Slovenes, 
Croats, and Servians to the south. 
Finally, to the east, you have the mass of 
Roumanian speech which, with the national aspira- 
tions it connotes, forms perhaps the chief anxiety 
of modern Hungary. This great body of Rouma- 
nian speech I have indicated on the sketch by 
.stippling. It extends not only over the whole 
of the Southern Carpathian system, but, of course, 
far beyond it into the Roumanian Plain. 
You have, then, the Magyars to begin with, 
jealous and contemptiious of the German race to 
which they are dynastically bound, full of the 
memories of successful revolt against that race and 
always distrusting the German, whether in Vienna 
or in Berlin, as a false neighbour. This feeling is 
intensified by the presence in the midst of the 
Hungarian division by sharply isolated German 
colonies. You have on the top of this the anxiety 
produced by the indifference or hostility of a great 
Roumanian population in the east of the State, and 
a great Slavonic population in the north, as in the 
south of it. 
All that is sufficient to show the acutely 
unstable equilibrium in which the kingdom of 
Hungary exists even in normal times, and the pro- 
digious effect which a defeat of the Austro-Hun- 
garian armies and a raid upon the Hungarian 
IMain by an invader may produce. But there is 
more. 
This complexity of race and language and the 
instability it produces is further accentuated by 
the profound factor of religious diversity. Roughly 
speaking, of the northern Slavs the great bulk are; 
Catholic save that in Eastern Galicia and Buko- 
vina the orthodox Greek is present. Roughly 
speaking, again, of the Roumanian population 
wiliiin the boundaries of Hungary, while half are 
Greek in ritual, half are irt communion with Rome. 
Of the southern Slavs, under Hungarian dominion, 
a majority, again, are Catholic and Latin in ritual, 
but a minority *is not only strictly orthodox, but 
also politically violently hostile to Hungary and 
nationalist Servian in feeling. 
Even so, the position of Hungary would be 
strengthened if, like Austria, she had a definitely 
Catholic religious policy and supported that half 
of her population against the diverse remainder. 
But the Hunj*arian government and tradition is 
not of that complexion. The very great wealth of 
the Church is almost its only strength in the king- 
dom. Those who have conducted the policy of 
Hungary since its virtual independence was 
Asserted more than half a century ago have been 
men either indifferent to, or by their training 
hostile to, the mass of the Catholic population they 
rule. 
Put all this together, and it means that a raid 
into undefended Hungary, into the heart of that 
Hungarian plain whence Magyar influence and 
domination has radiated in the past, will be like 
the detonation which strikes apart the unstable 
chemical combination of an explosive. And the 
Russian cavalry are not striking south-west from 
the Carpathian passes with any less intention than 
that : the disruptive influence of danger upon so 
inchoate a mass. When the Magyar feels himself 
abandoned by his German colleague, when the 
Roumanian subject to him (who commonly hates 
him), the Slav subject to him (who either is not at 
ease with him or hates him also), have the loci.--l 
government of the, Hungarian over them disturbed, 
a powerful factor for weakening all that group ol 
Russia's enemies is brought into the field. 
Strengthening all this Russian policy there is, 
further, the economic factor. 
The Hungarian Plain and the mountains that 
encircle it stand for three things very vital in this 
war: Wheat, horses, and oil. 
aT^ 
Tht Carpathian Si^sUm: 'Economic. 
Shomiru the batts of SitppU^ i^ WHEAT oru£ Horsei. 
thus^^ H Hungarian. R Roumanian. 
Those ofOR^ thus: ^^ PCaUcian. QRcumaaiaa 
BB B thtu- direction to suppLj Gernuuw- 
AAA the direction of the Russian Raid, and^ - - . 
the present Russian ^ronf. 
Wheat, the main product of the Hungarian 
Plain, makes it not only the granary of the Dual 
Monarchy, but the supplementary granary of Ger- 
many as well. True, the Germanic Allies will 
have sufficient foodstuff's for a long time to 
come ; but still the factor of the Hungarian Plain 
counts. It counts, also, in that now urgent matter 
for CJermany — the supply of horses. There is 
another and" larger supply of foodstuffs from the 
Roimianian Plain behind the Carpathians, and 
from the same district a certain supply of horses ; 
and so long as Roumania remains neutral the ex- 
port of wheat and of horses to our enemies across 
the Carpathians will continue. Horses are, as we 
know, a more serious business than wheat, esjieci- 
ally for the Germans. The pinching of the supply 
is already being felt, and there will be a very great 
shortage before the end of the winter. 
Lastly, there is oil. Oil in connection with the 
Carpathian system is discovered upon the north 
11* 
