LAND AND WATER December 19, 1914. 
any rate something which immensely adds to its siege, and particularly with regard to so vast a one 
value, and which most gunners upon the Continent, as this, a second essential point, 
and in particular the French, regai-ded as inseparable That a force should be besieged upon a large 
from the new use of the arm. or small scale neither means that it is incapable 
An area is plotted out on the map within which of irruption against its enemies, nor that such 
there was no one object to serve as target, but irruptions or "sorties" will not finally succeed, 
within which potential targets certainly existed — And we watch those irruptions, outward strokes, of 
bodies of the enemy or the emplacement of con- the besieged against the besiegers, we estimate their 
cealed guns. momentum and their results,, with the object of 
This area is methodically searched with shrapnel, discovering the chances of the siege as a whole, for 
Shell is delivered over it from left to right along its according to their success and vigour it depends 
extreme boundary and then inwards, one sweeping whether the siege shall be permanently maintained 
line after another, until its nearer boundary is and brought to a successful conclusion or no. Now 
reached. The whole area is covered with the for three months the action of Germany and her 
object of striking some one small portion of it which Ally have been precisely of this sort upon a large 
neither the airman nor any other source of informa- scale. It has been a series of sorties ; just as 
tion has been able to place with exactitude. It is besieged Paris struck out at Champigny and 
self-evident that this method of using your guns is Buzenval, so the Grermanies have been striking out 
immensely expensive in ammunition ; it is equally time and again upon three lines of counter attack, 
self-evident that it is conclusive for the object it They have had their great effort to pierce through 
seeks. With a sufficient sujiply of ammunition and upon the road to Calais (which has hitherto failed) ; 
a sufficient confidence in the replacing of your worn- they have in the East made under Von Hindenburg 
out guns it will always be practised. The recent their big counter stroke in Poland (which has also 
order to the German artillery of which I speak hitherto failed) ; and quite latterly, presumably 
forbids it for the first time in this war. under orders from Berlin, they have made yet another 
There are other examples that could be quoted sortie upon a third distant sector of the ring, and 
of scarcity in other less necessary goods, but these have delivered a violent outward thrust against the 
should suffice. Servian forces which, in its turn, has failed, as we 
Before leaving this section of the survey it is have seen, 
very important for us to note that there is all the In the case of these sorties as in the case of 
difference in the world between scarcity and default, supply we must not exaggerate things in our own 
Some necessary metal may be scarce and wise pro- favour. The sortie of a besieged garrison may be 
vision may order its husbandry a long time before successful — although, out of every hundred such 
the lack of it seriously weakens one's enemy, attacks in all the history of sieges, perhaps one at 
Butchers' meat had given out in besieged Paris, for the most has been really successful. A sortie does 
instance, long before the moment when the relieving sometimes break up a ring of investment, though in 
though irregular forces gave the besiegers their the vast majority of cases its authors are satisfied if 
critical moment of anxiety at the beginning of they succeed in doing no more than throw back tlie 
December in 1870, and Revolutionary France, reduced besiegers and prolonging the effort of the siege. 
in the simple elements of early 1793 to worse straits But, as a matter of fact, none of these sorties 
than the Germanic Allies are now, was triumphant have as yet cut a way through the ring. Calais 
within twelve months. failed, Warsaw failed, and now the attack in the 
We must also remember with regard to any Servian direction has failed. 
A FURTHER NOTE ON ENEMY 
WASTAGE. 
, There remains another element to be calculated, (2) But even the lists of the dead will be 
of course, in our estimate of a siege, and that is the imperfect. If a given list is made out to a par- 
human factor, the numbers of the garrison, its rate ticular day there will always be further names to 
of wastage, its moral condition. Of the numbers of come in. Therefore, names sent in up to, say, the 
the " garrison" on the German side there have been 1st of November furnish a list certainly less than 
made several estimates in these notes and estimates the truth, and if we base our calculations on such a 
of its wastage also. In view of a considerable cor- list we shall certainly prevent exaggeration of our 
respondence both printed in these columns and estimates. We are scaling them against ourselves 
received privately, it may be worth while to return and in favour of the enemy. 
to the defence of a calculation with which my (3) In a large number of lists covering all the 
readers are already familiar. That calculation is in operations of a great army the killed and wounded 
the following form :— together will certainly be at least ten times the 
(1) Of all lists of casualties, that which will be number of killed alone. Usually it is more than 
most accurately established will be the list of that ; but one is safe in taking ten as one's nniltiple. 
dead, ior whether a man is permanently missing If, therefore, we scale that down again to eight we 
will always remain doubtful for a long time, and the are certainly well within the true figure. In con- 
degree of severity in a wound which merits the in- elusion, then, we take the number of "killed admitted 
elusion of the wounded man in the casualty list is by the enemy up to a certain date ; we multiply by 
again at the discretion of those who draw up such a eight ; we add a proportion (varying with different 
list. Again unless individual notification to families judgments) for sickness in every form, and we arrive 
IS to take the place (after the French fashion) of at a total which we may be fairly certain is within 
public lists, it IS necessary to make the lists of dead the fuU total of the enemy's losses. 
as accurate and complete as possible. They are far Such is the method of calculation that haa 
more urgent than the lists of wounded and missing, been adopted in these notes, and it was based upon . 
