LAND AND WATEK 
January 9, 1915^ 
flexion and in the original direction north 
and south. There is no intention on the 
part of the Russians of advancing it; all the 
efl'orts of the enemy are to pierce it. The 
attacks near Mikhala, Gora, Vobnino, Poliklmo, 
and four or five other places, such as Kamans, 
Mazornia, Malogorszcz, and Zakrsow, all lie 
along this line, and are each marked by a cross. 
It is the original line of which I spoke last week, 
which runs straight from the Upper Rawka to the 
west side of the Lotsosina, and so down the Nida 
Xo the Upper Vistula. This Russian line is the 
straightest and shortest possible for the defence of 
Warsaw. It was deliberately taken up and has 
been maintained for seventeen days. It has not 
hitherto bent, still less has it been pierced. 
On the other hand, there has been for the last 
few days no appreciable movement further south 
and west of the Russians, towards Cracow, from 
across the Nida. We have no news, for instance, 
that the Nidcza has been reached yet by our Allies, 
and it is equally true that the passes of the Car- 
pathians are not yet in their hands. The private 
telegrams announcing their capture four or five 
days ago were what is politely called " an antici- 
pation of events " ; and that from Rome describing 
the pouring of troops down on to the Hungarian 
plains was rubbish. The position as kno^vn at the 
moment of writing — Tuesday night — that is, the 
position of last Sunday — was that the Russians 
held the mouths of all tlie passes, were nearly at 
the summit of the Uzsog, and had driven the 
Austrians right up into the hills at the place where 
the all-important Dukla Pass debouches into the 
fairly open northern country. The Austrians in 
their retreat had left — as may be imagined in such 
vile weather of blizzards and snow (for it is much 
worse in the Carpathians than in Northern Poland 
near Warsaw, where the winter is open, very 
wet, and still mild) numerous prisoners and not a 
little maXerial — 4: guns, for instance, 3,000 men, 
and 68 officers, with half-a-dozen Maxims, south 
of Gorliche. But until clear weather and a frost 
come it is probable that advances everywhere here 
will continue to be extremely slow. It is none 
the less an advance, and none the less a continual 
and daily depreciation of the Austrian forces. 
THE SUPPLY OF MEN. 
IN the last few days that incessant question, 
the supply of men, has again been raised in 
more than one quarter, both by those who 
have emphasised anew the present character 
of the war, and by those who have put forth 
further estimates of enemy-reserves in the public 
Press. 
It is a matter to which all critics and students 
of the great campaigns must continually return, 
and the object of the following notes upon it in 
this week's issue is only to reduce the matter to 
its simplest terms, so that a general judgment may 
be drawn which shall also be precise. 
To obtain a precise conclusion on this matter 
is the more valuable because (for some reason 
which is not easy to discover, but probably con- 
nected with the advocacy of particular policies), 
many authorities are not content to keep to the 
plain rules of arithmetic, but are concerned sora3 
to exaggerate, others to belittle, the total existing 
forces and the total reserves of force present with 
the Allies or with their enemies. 
Now, if we keep certain principles clearly 
before us, and if we apply those principles to the 
published statistics of modern Europe, we shall 
arrive at certain numerical results upon which 
there can be no doubt whatever ; unless we are pre- 
pared to call those published ofiicial statistics 
false, or the rules of arithmetic doubtful. 
I propose to pursue the following plan : — 
(1) To begin with, the absolute numbers of 
males of what is called " military age." (2) Then 
to see how many of these are " potential " forces 
for any nation, i.e., how many could (if there were 
no loss by inefficiency, necessary civilian employ- 
ment, absence in fields other than that of the Euro- 
pean conflict) possibly enter the field. (3) Thsnce 
to proceed to what I shall call the " actualities," 
that is, the numbers which, out of these potential 
Diunbers, could in practice be siimmoned within 
one year supposing full equipment and supply 
available for them. These figures I shall call the 
" Final figures." But they will need " weighing " 
by a consideration of age, of efficiency, of rate of 
loss. 
I.— ABSOLUTE NUMBERS. 
We start, then, by asking the number of males 
of what is generally but very loosely called "mili- 
tary age" in each of the five great belligerent 
Powers. 
We are justified, for the purposes of a 
strongly outlined sketch such as this, in omitting 
the smaller populations involved, and in consider- 
ing only France, Great Britain, the German Em- 
pire, Austria-Hungary and Russia. 
" Military age " signifies, when the phrase is 
used in this arbitrary fashion, all years from the 
twentieth to the forty-fiJth year inclusive. That 
is, the phrase presupposes the calling up and 
training of lads whose twentieth birthday falls 
sometime near or after the declaration of war, 
and men of succeeding ages up to those who attain 
their forty-fifth birthday near the same moment. 
How misleading the phrase can be, and how it 
must be modified when one comes to practical 
judgment we shall see in a moment. But, for the 
purpose of establishing first principles, this is the 
period of human life in the male which we set 
apart under the sacred phrase " military age." 
Now, we know from published statistics how 
the Great Powers stand to one another in this 
factor of strength. 
Germany has 12,000,000 such men; France, 
7,000,000; this country, 8,000,000; Austria, 
9,000,000; Russia, 26,000,000. 
The reader will at once protest against these 
figures being given unqualified, particularly in the 
case of Great Britain and of Russia ; and we shall 
see in a moment how different the " potential," 
still more the " actual " numbers of men available 
in action during the current year are from tlie 
mere total numbers, of males thus aligned. But foe 
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