LAND AND WATER 
January 23, 1915. 
Nothin" of the'Bort has happened to the 11th that comprising three full corps and the greater part of 
we can°eather ^ fourth, no longer exists, save perhaps in suffi- 
koue the less, the Turkish offensive in this cient force to undertake the defence of some pre- 
district is evidently at an end, and the First Army, viously fortified position. 
A FURTHER NOTE ON THE NUMBERS 
OF THE GERMAN RESERVE. 
OTES upon the actions reported in the upon the known proportion in armies where uni- 
various theatres of war have their inter- versal service is really imposed (as in France or in 
est and sometimes, it may be hoped, Bulgaria), but merely upon the normal returns of 
their use, if they are accurate and sober .German calculations dealing with men who, in any 
in the formation of opinion. But case are not to be taken as soldiers, 
another matter, which has been referred to several For the Germans can call up of young men of 
tiroes in these columns, is, if we judge it accurately, mihtary age just over 600,000. Of these they take 
not only of interest but of the highest practical half to be soldiers (including, of course, none of 
importance, and that is the real reserves of the those who are at all doubtful in health), the re- 
enemy, maining half they draft into either very partially 
My apology for returning in a few lines to trained or, more oft-en, wholly untrained reserves. 
that subject this week is that the discussion has re- They chose to put down the incapable on paper at 
appeared with some activity in the Press this so low a figure as 7.73 per cent., but that is per- 
week, and that a sound conclusion upon it is fectly ridiculous in practice. No one can get the 
reallyvitaltoourexpectationsof what the war will proportion when you are taking men for actual 
become in the future, and of what this country in service, and not merely for being written down as 
particular must expect to meet in the spring, possible soldiers on paper, below 20 per cent., and 
Figures have already been given to show that, 
though paradoxical enough, the mere reserves in 
man power is larger in the weaker of the two Allies 
— Austro-Hungary, but for the moment we are 
more concei-ned with the possible reserves or " dis- 
posable "men left to the German Empire for pos- 
sible later use in the field. 
Now, here there are two schools, roughly 
speaking. The school which expects Germany to 
produce, trained and equipped within the next few 
months, certainly three million, possibly four 
million, of men; .and the school which estimates 
her, powers in this direction at certainly less than 
2^ million,. and probably nearer two million men. 
. I iave so often given figures showing on what 
the second school relies for its judgment that I am 
almost ashamed to repeat them, "but as they are 
absolute figures and seem to lead to unavoidable 
concliisions, and as none the less very different 
conclusions have been reached upon other figures 
by other forms of computation, I will briefly re- 
state them here. 
We have not got to guess, we knovj the total 
number of adult males of military age, from 20 to 
45 years inclusive, in the German Empire. It is 
in round numbers 12 million men. 
We have not got to guess, we know that Ger- 
many has hitherto put into the field at least 5 
million. She may have put more, she cannot 
have possibly put less, for her known minimum 
losses, coupled with the known minimum number 
the real proportion in practice is much more like 
25 per cent. The absurd allowance of 7.73 is 
arrived at by only examining a selection of all pos- 
sible young men, and by putting into a nominal re- 
serve (knowing they can never be used) many of 
those who, in actual conscription, would either 
have to be rejected or would break down. 
(3) Those who are wedded to the higher figure 
allow between 20 and 45 a loss of only 2 per cent, a 
year for each year, half for death and half for 
accident, etc. 
These decreases, in practice, are also far too 
low. They represent the number of males who are 
incapable not only of militai'y service (because they 
are dead, or have been run over by carts, or have 
gone blind, or mad), but also everyone up to 45, 
no matter what the state of his lungs, stomach, 
heart, weight, brain, eyesight, feet and veins. 
Common sense will tell anyone that after 35, at 
least, men who have never been soldiers in their 
lives and are suddenly called up from sedentary 
occupations, do not show a proportion of 25 per 
cent., as young men do, of inefiiciency (which only 
means military inefficiency), they show a propor- 
tion of certainly half and probably more than half. 
They do this without question when the age of 40 
is approached. 
Now, in order to form a judgment as to what 
the real reserves in the German Army are now, 
we simply have to decide which of these two views 
is in practice sound. We know from proved and 
r..fji„ f . , ^J^ftG^-n and manceuvre on the ascertained experience that at least 25 per cent, of 
eastern trout, make this calculation certain. men must be rejected. That leaves 9 out of 12 
rmnrlT- IT .^ ^^^''f ^^''^''- ^°'''' ^^^^ inilliou. Wc kuow that ut the very least 2 million 
^mw^^r ^r'^^^'' ^^""'^ "^^^ ^^^ ^^'^^ °^ *'"^ ^ °f able-bodied men must be retailed to run " the 
Smt w^f "" "^^^ ^?r^'' ^^' ^"^ extreme), and nation." That leaves you less than 7^ million. We 
inose ^ ho say, as another extreme, that only 2 know that 5 million are already in arms at least 
appear. Ihe argument for those who Surely the calculation is obvious! 
think that four wiU appear is probably based upon 
three erroneous elements of calculation. 
(1) They consider only the total number of 
adult males and omit all reference to necessary 
civil employment : that is the chief error. 
(2) They calculate the number of " unfit," not 
Mr. Belloo has arranged to lecture at the Town Hall, Cheltenham, 
on the 2Sih January, and at Bristol, on the 30th Januaiy. . Hn next 
lecture at the Queen's Hall, will taie place next Wednesdav at 
8.30 p.m. 
In response to Uie general desire lor au: afternoon lecture, Air. 
Hilaire Belloc will speak at 2.30 on Tuesdav, February 9th, at the 
Qaeen's Hall. His next evening lecture is on Tuesday the 26th iust. 
1G» 
