January 30, 1915, 
LAND AND WATER 
Th 
orn 
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ursaw 
V 
TDJJ CAMPAIGN OF THK VI8TX7LA ASD EAST PKUSSIA. 
(2) Much more important, it might be hoped 
that Bulgaria would throw in her lot then with the 
Germanic Powers. 
The reason of Bulgaria's tendency in this 
direction is already history and is fairly widely 
known. But because it is not always fully appre- 
ciated in the complexity of the present struggle 
it may be worth repeating here. 
When Austria forbade, after the Balkan War, 
the access of Servia to the Adriatic, she embroiled 
Servia with Bulgaria by suggesting and permitting 
the occupation by the former country of land which 
was (in the main) racially and by culture and tradi- 
tion, Bulgarian. This area is roughly marked 
upon the accompanying sketch-map by the letter 
A. Bulgaria was offered, indeed, compensation 
towards the East in the district B, but that district 
was not historically Bulgar at all; it was Greek 
land Turk, and the artificial arrangement, so char- 
acteristic of Viennese international policy, may 
be compared to a settlement that should give 
France a slice of Spanish soil, while condemning 
her to lose a further portion of Lorraine. This 
unnatural plan was the cause of the second Balkan 
War in which Bulgaria lost. To recover for herself 
the district, A, is a permanent object of Bulgarian 
policy, and if Servia were subdued in a third Aus- 
trian attempt upon her Bulgaria would, of course, 
be offered this district, A, as the prize of her joining 
with her excellent Army, unstricken as yet by the 
present war, the Germanic cause. 
Apart from that political reason there is no 
military reason why a great body should be wasted 
by itself in the south when it may be needed at any 
moment to guard the issues of the Carpathians, or 
to fight against a new Russian offensive in Poland, 
and until one can get better evidence of such a 
movement it is as well to hold one's judgment in 
suspense as to whether it is taking place at all. 
(2) The movement upon the frontiers of Buko- 
vina is in another category. We know that the 
Russians have made an effort here in spite of the 
abominable weather conditions, and we know of 
what importance it is to Austria that Hungary 
should be saved from a second invasion. The news, 
therefore, of an Austro-Hungarian concentration 
upon this corner against the Russian movement is 
probable in itself, and is borne out by the fighting 
of which we have official news. 
There are two points about that fighting which 
are specially worth noting. 
The first is that comparatively small forces 
are being employed here upon either side. Let it 
be noted that the front is a short one, not more 
than fifteen to twenty miles, and that the last ac- 
counts speak of "a whole Austrian division" as 
being engaged in the region of Kirlibaba. But 
when one talks of a whole division in this way it 
means that the fighting has hitherto been in terms 
of brigades, and that compared with the forces 
hitherto present in the region, even one division is 
a considerable new unit. Now, consider that upon 
the Polish front, that is, along the Donajec, up the 
Nida, and so across to the Lower Vistula, there 
cannot be less than 100 divisions at work upon the 
enemy's side, probably a good deal more, and then 
5* 
