February 6, 1915. 
LAND AND WATEK 
Now, suppose the Italian begins to doubt the 
German's ability to redeem his promise. It is 
obvious the German Government cannot step in 
directly. It cannot coerce the Italian, or force its 
currency upon him ; or, still less, make him manu- 
facture the rubber and send it to the German army 
motor-car man. 
At the very beginning of the strain, from the 
moment that foreign neutral merchants were doubt- 
ful whether they would really get paid in full, the 
excliange would begin to go against Germany badly, 
she would have to promise on paper to pay 11 
ounces of gold to get foreign materials for which she 
would only pay 10 ounces of the actual metal, and 
as the prices went on she would have to promise 
to pay not only 11 but 12, and then 12 to 13, and 
so forth. 
It is obvious that as the strain increases matters 
may become very bad indeed, and foreign imports at 
last hardly obtamable. The only way out would be 
for the foreign Government, acting as a friend, 
to guarantee Germany's ultimately paying. But 
even if a neutral were to go so far, it would only 
affect the narrow circle of exchanges taking place 
entirely between Germany and that one country. 
There are required for a modern nation 
prosecuting a war which covers all its energies, 
and is a fight for life, the following main staples — 
1. Food. 
2. Textiles for clothing. 
3. Wood and other building materials for 
shelter. 
4. Fuel for warmth and mechanical actions 
of all kind dependent upon heat. 
5. Armament. 
These five categories cover the whole field. 
The nation can contmue to exist and continue to 
fight indefinitely if it has just enough food, just 
enough clothing, just enough fuel and just enough 
shelter, and in proportion to its numerous supplies 
a corresponding and at least not inferior supply of 
weapons and projectiles and explosives. 
1. As to food. The Germanic allies have 
enough food — not enough food to be comfortable — 
for a full year. They will not have enough food in 
the second year of the war if certain portions of 
their territory are occupied before next harvest — 
notably East Prussia and the Hungarian plains ; 
but it is nourishing an illusion to confuse the great 
discomfort to which the enemy will be put by 
having to husband and to ration his food with true 
famine or the actual absence of such food. 
2. Textiles. The materials of clothing are 
necessary in great quantities to a modern European 
nation ; we cannot live in our climates without them ; 
but the German stocks will last a very long time. 
One can conceive that a modern nation which has 
been a large manufacturer of textiles in time of peace 
'vould proceed for certainly two years even if it 
imported no raw material during that time. But as 
a fact the Allies have allowed Germany to obtain 
all the cotton and all the wool she wanted. She 
cannot produce all the wool that she needs, and by 
no means can she produce the cotton she needs, for 
cotton is a sub-tropical product, but if an unsatis- 
factory exchange at last so impaired her in these 
imports that they ceaeed altogether (a most unlikely 
event) she would still have domestic stocks suffi- 
cient to continue her resistance and her armod 
struggle for a long time. 
3. Wood and materials for shelter : In all 
these Germany and Austria-Hungary are abundant!/ 
supplied, not for one year or two but for ever. 
4. Fuel. In all fuel except petrol the Ger- 
manic allies are abundantly supplied not for one 
year or two but for a generation or more. It is true 
that the main coal supplies lie near the frontiers 
and are subject to the first effects of invasion, but as 
matters now stand there is no limit to the enemy's 
supply in this regard, and mineral oil is not a 
necessary fuel save as it is burned in the internal 
combustion engines ; in other words coal wiU do all 
that Germany and Austria-Hungary want in the 
way of fuel whether for their machines or their 
warming, and the absence of petrol strikes only at 
our next category, armament. 
5. Armament. It is only in this category of 
armament that we find the enemy seriously em- 
barrassed and a decreasing power to pay for imports 
in gold affecting him. With a blockade imperfect, 
the financial position of the enemy, though it 
cannot ultimately reduce him in his domestic 
energies, may embarrass him if his stock of gold 
falls, or if his instruments of credit are inflated ; and 
the importation of foreign goods which are neces- 
sary for the prosecution of the war may be gravely 
impeded. 
The armament of a modern nation needs the 
following materials — iron and coal : coal for working 
up the iron and for producing steel. Without 
iron and coal it would be crippled at once. Iron 
and coal the enemy possesses in superabundances. 
Next, modern armament needs explosives, and our 
explosives consisting of various substances chemically 
treated, the main propellent explosive is cotton 
chemically treated. But, as we saw last week, cotton 
can at a pinch be replaced by wood pulp. It would 
be a change expensive in time and in energy ; that 
expense might be fatal in the midst of a great war, 
but still, theoretically it is possible. Therefore, in 
the matter of propellent explosives, the enemy can, 
though hampered by increasingly bad credit, supply 
himself Explosives of disruption, such as you 
have in a torpedo or a shell, are composed of 
materials which, if I am not mistaken, the enemy 
possesses in abundance. 
We may take it that no difficulty in foreign 
exchange, no financial trouble can prevent the 
enemy from making all the guns he wants and 
all the shell and all the bullets. We may take it that 
at the expense of some strain (which might at the 
critical moment of change be fatal) he will get all 
the explosives he needs, but there are certain 
necessaries in which he is not thus provided ; chief 
among them are horses and petrol. The allies 
opposed to Germany have been obliged to buy 
horses from over sea in very large numbers. The 
Germanic powers are not in that position ; they would, 
if they could, buy horses in similar large numbers, 
but the avenues of entry are closed to them. Even 
if there were no blockade, financial difficulty would 
here hit hard an important source of suppl3^ 
Petrol the enemy had in equally sufficient 
amount so long as he imported freely from Boumania 
and so long as he had at his disposal all the 
Galician oil wells. The first of these supplies we 
believe to be stopped, though we are not certain 
on what date import ceased. The second fluctuates ; 
his supply is now gravely insufficient, and even if 
no blockade existed the financial strain would 
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