LAND AND WATER 
February 13, 1915. 
THE WAR BY WATER. 
By FRED T. JANE. 
NOTE.— Thli Article bii been iDbmitted to the Preu Bareao, which does not object to the publication ai ceniored, and takei no 
retpoDiibllity for the correctneii of the itatemcnti. 
THE NORTH SEA. 
THE most important item of news this week is, of 
course, Germany's declaration of a " general 
blockade" under terms of something very like 
piracy pure and simple. If the official German 
statement means anything at all, it means that 
both British and neutral merchant ships are to bo 
submarined without warning and their crews left to drown 
in a desperate attempt to create " frightfulness." It is true 
that certain exemptions have since been made, but they have 
probably only a paper value. 
Since the method has actually been put into operation-- 
even to the extent of discharging torpedoes at a hospital ship 
— we must tak« it as a war idea seriously embarked on by 
Germany. 
That the Germans regard nothing as sacred where to dis- 
regard offers advantage we have long known. But Germany 
apparently half-prepared to assert " If you wont be a friend, 
you can be an enemy for all I care " is a new proposition. It 
is not an unsound one from the German standpoint. 
Along the lines on which this war is being conducted it 
can make little military difference to Germany whether the 
United States be a strict neutral or an active enemy. In her 
relations with lesser neutrals the situation is not very 
materially different. In the ordinary way — if the United 
States indulged in indiscriminate blockade running — a small 
neutral state may be inclined to pass on contraband to Ger- 
many. But if a strong neutral like the U.S.A. is quarrelled 
with, a stopper is at once put on the hypothetical smuggler. 
There is nothing left to smuggle with 1 
Now, so far as the United States as a neutral is con- 
cerned, it matters nothing at all to her whether she trades 
with us or Germany, provided the jnofits be the same. 
But it certainly matters a very great deal whether trade with 
Germany means detention and Prize Court proceedings, 
whereas trade with England might entail the chance of de- 
struction without warning. 
Out of which I am inclined to think that the first result 
of Germany's declaration of piratical intentions will be to 
Germany's advantage. I do not think that the advantage 
will last, because sooner or later German pirates will sink 
by mistake an American ship or a ship carrying Americans. 
Then, if these are left to drown, there will be serious trouble. 
From the military standpoint such trouble would not affect 
Germany. The naval odds against her are already such that 
she could view an increase of odds with comparative 
equanimity. Taking distances into consideration, America, 
if involved, could do little or nothing on the spot to counter- 
act the submarine campaign. 
Indirectly, of course, by the stoppage of shipments 
■he could hamper Germany enormously, but it might hamper 
American trade to an almost equal extent. Consequently the 
Germans reckon steadily on a " nothing doing." And this 
probably is exactly what will obtain until they leave a score 
or 80 of American citizens to drown " by mistake." 
Sooner or later, of course, this will happen. Then — but 
I am afraid not till then — will Germany realise the analogy 
of the pig which attempts to swim and so cuts its own throat. 
This will be the end of their submarine warfare against 
our commerce. But it is idle to disguise that they have taken 
the last desperate step ; and though every post brings me half- 
a-dozen "ideas" as to how to fight submarines, the bed-rock 
fact remains that the problem is yet unsolved. 
Eventually, of course, it will be. But it is not accom- 
plished yet, and there are no indications as yet that the real 
" how to do it " has yet been discovered. It will be. But we 
are still waiting for the will-be : and a thousand well-mean- 
ing and patriotic civilians who have never been inside a sub- 
marine in their lives will never hit off the antidote. Somo 
day the technical folk will, and then the aspect of affairs will 
rhnnge. But every single suggestion which has been sent in 
is of the " put salt on the bird's tail " order. Many of the 
su.£reestion8 sent in display a high ingenuity; yet one and 
all invariably forget the cardinal fact that by the time the 
submarine is located she has probably discharged her tov- 
pedoes. ^ho future lies with the inventor who can discover 
a submarine at least five miles off. He will not do it with 
a microphone— ideas on those lines have been tried, and 
failed. There is possibly some opening for a camera obscura 
able to differentiate between the vertical lines of a periscope 
and the horizontal lines of a wave, but only an extremely 
smart optician (or someone in somo such line of business) would 
have a chance of tumbling across it. There is not the ghost 
of a chance of any amateur finding out how to do it. And 
unless the skilled optician had some very clear idea as to how 
submarines work I am afraid that he would do little better 
than the ordinary amateurs. 
I am strongly of opinion that the British Navy will solve 
the apparently impossible submarine problem just as it solved 
many another apparently impossible problem in the past. 
The swarm of privateers in the Napoleonic wars constituted 
a very serious problem, but it was eventually dealt with. 
Every bane has its antidote. 
For the rest we can only express the hope that our 
people will emulate the Russians who, having caught some 
Germans dropping bombs from a dirigible on an undefended 
town, have definitely declared that they will treat them as 
common felons. If we catch any German submarine folk 
who have torpedoed merchant ships without warning and left 
the crews to drown, it is to be hoped that we will have the 
sense to hang them off-hand, and if circumstances admit to 
hang them at the yard arm of their trawler mother ship from 
which they worked, and to set that trawler drifting for the 
rest of the pirates to see 1 It is true that the prospect of being 
hanged in chains did not do much to deter the pirates of the 
old days, but it has to be remembered that Captain Kidd and 
his fellows operated solely for loot, and that the circum- 
stance of being invariably drunk served to render them 
philosophical as to their ultimate fates. 
liverpool 
Sabmarint'd 
MAP TO ILLUSTRATE AREA OF U21's OPERATIONS. 
The Neutral Flag and Passive Defence. 
The fact that a submarine can torpedo a merchant ship 
quite unawares is not entirely advantageous to the submarine 
or entirely to the disadvantage of the liner. A submarine 
lying submerged taking peeps through her periscope, 
especially if any sea be on, has very limited vision, and is 
somewhat in the position of a sea anemone which has to wait for 
its prey to come to it. The odds, therefore, are greatly against 
any particular merchant ship coinciding with any particular 
submarine. That is why 1121 operated on the surface ; it 
gave her better vision and considerably more speed. 
Supposing the Germans to think better of the full terms 
of their declaration about attacking British and neutral ships 
alike, it is presumed that by using a neutral flag British 
ships would have ample opportunities of evasion. 
The ruse would be quite legitimate; but its praclica- 
bility is perhaps another matter. It would give the Germans 
an excuse for any neutral sunk on the grounds of " suspected 
British " and increase the risks of neutrals. Out of which I 
to* 
