LAND AND WAT EH 
February 20, 1915. 
may then safely say that a million and a-half new the elements we have fore-calculated, the duration 
men and probably more have been drafted in in of the war. It is enough for the moment to sum 
one way and another up to the present moment, up and to say that the enemy has already called 
But, though there is a very active newspaper dis- up more than half of his margin of men, that he 
cussion still raging upon the point, evidence has has been compelled to put his latest and large addi- 
becn given in these columns to show that the avail- tion into the eastern field, that he is there expect- 
able reserve of men (not boys) in Germany's hands ing an immediate decision, and that if he fails to 
would not be very largely over two million : two obtain it he mil be unable to force a mere defcn- 
million and a-half is certainly an excessive figure. sive upon the East such as he has established on 
the West, and will therefore be unable either to 
withdraw large forces from the East to the We3t 
or to raise new men in drafts or new formations in 
any considerable number. 
But if he does arrive at a decision in the East, 
then he has still a large margin of men — probably 
equipped and ready — to come upon us with the 
better weather, and to try and break the cord 
which still binds him in the West. He must act 
quickly and while still the Polish weatlicr "hampers 
him, because his time in the West is drawing short 
and about the coming of the nightingales it may be 
too late. 
THE REMAINING FRONTS. 
Everything of interest this week has concen- 
the enemy's army before the recent movement, and trated upon this new development in Poland. In 
amounting to probably more than one-half of their the West the stagnation has been almost deeper 
total margin, there have recently been added even than in the v/eek before. The wooded height 
further large new forces, and the conclusion would (not quite 3,000ft. above the plain), which the light 
seem to be that the enemy is now not far from Alpine troops carried in the Vosges fiVe days ago, 
having put into operation in one way and another affords no more than an incident. The loss of a 
Well, then, it would seem that by whittling 
down every item so as to weight the balance against 
false expectations, we may justly say that the Ger- 
man Empire — and presumably the Austro-Hun- 
garian also — had used and brought up something 
like half of their available reserves in man-power 
before this new counter-offensive was attempted. 
iThat counter-offensive is proving serious 
numerically and still has great" weight of men be- 
hind it after more than a week of effort. The Eus- 
sian retreat has been rapid, and it has been pro- 
voked, without a doubt, by the discovery of very 
great bodies of men newly appeared in East Prus- 
sia. The same is true in a minor degree of the 
Austro-German success and of the corresponding 
Russian retirement in Bukowina. It follows that 
to the very heavy drafts of new men demanded by 
the greater part of his available reserve in men. 
He may have a third of that reserve ^till un- 
equipped, or for some other reason not yet usable 
in the field ; he may have a trifle more. He has not 
got a full half. And he is being compelled to use 
the flower of this new and last material in the East 
because our Russian Ally, with all their heavy diffi- 
French trench in the wood before Souain Vas upon 
the same scale. The wood fighting of the Argonne 
has had so little effect that if you trace it on the 
map you find no more than a few paces won and 
lost not in the decisive direction — which is north- 
west and south-east — (for the Germans are trying 
to close the buckle and the French to keep it open), 
culties of equipment and their serious lack of com- but at right angles to that direction : the recent 
munication and in spite of a strict blockade (which and unimportant conflicts of the Argonne hava 
he must wonder that the enemy does not also suffer!) been waged in the heart of the forest, not on its 
in spite of still inferior numbers, and in spite of Verdun edge — and their front has faced away 
that lack of railway facility which is the life of a from Verdun. The only other movement wortli 
winter campaign in such a climate, has managed recording has been the attempt of the Germans to 
to keep the eastern field unceasingly active and an shell the Allies out of their new trenches upon the 
increasing menace to our opponents. 'We shall big sandhill east of Nieuport, and their failure 
have discovered before this campaign is over that 
we have owed very much to the invincible tenacity 
tof the Russian soldier. 
The full consideration of these numbers, of 
the new formations and new drafts on the enemy's nor (at the moment of writing) any renewed at- 
Side, I will reserve for discussion next week upon tempt upon the Suez Canal. 
NOTE.— Thli Artlclt hai bees inbinitted to the Preii Bnrean, which doei not object to the pablicatioa ti eeniored and takei oo 
reiponslbllity for the correctneti of th* itatementi. 
!■ tecordance with the reqolrementi of th* Preii Boreao, the poiltlont of troopi on Plani tllnitratin; thli Article mnit onl; be 
regarded at approximate, aod no definite (trenjfth at any point ii Indicated. 
hitherto to recover what they lost here a fortnight 
ago. 
On the Servian frontier things seem to be at ia" 
standstill. There is no news from the Caucasus 
THE Y^TAR BY WATER. 
By FRED 
NORTH SEA AND CHANNEL. 
Hostile Submarine Bases. 
F Von Tirpitz has so far failed to create any particular 
effect on our merchant shipping with his submarine 
commerce warfare, ho has certainly managed to attract 
attention and arouse widespread interest in the ques- 
tion of how the German submarines manage to act and 
_' _ keep going so far away from their home ports. It 
is impossible to reply indiyidually to the scores of readers 
T. JANE. 
who have sent in information or theories on this question, 
BO I am here dealing with ihe matter in a general way. 
Roughly, thexiorrespondcnce on this subject resolves itself 
under two main heads: (1) Signalling and shore bases; (2) 
independent sea supply. 
As regards the first of these, the usual theory is that 
stores exist at various places in these islands — not necessarily 
on the ooasi! — and that they are taken out in small neutral 
coasting steamers, times and places being signalled from Uio 
shore. No doubt something of this sort has happened in the 
