propellent explosive and explosive for bursting 
charges. The latter he makes from the distillation 
of coal, which he has in abundance, and which he 
can nitrate at will. The former, thanks to tha 
deliberate relaxation of the blockade, he now pos- 
sesses in a very large amount. Indeed, the main 
question for those who are agitating in this matter 
to consider now is whether it is Avorth while to 
prevent his getting cotton, since he already has 
such a very great stock of it. He cannot use 
anything except cotton, and we liave allowed 
him to accumulate about one million bales. 
iWe have forbidden vrool to go ijito Germany, 
though wool comes from the Empire, and though 
wool only clothes his soldiers. We laave allomMl 
cotton to go in freely, quite as much since the 
Order in Council as before. The matter is gun- 
powder. The matter is controversial, and, there- 
fore, I will not debate it here, but I believe my 
figures are correct. A million bales is, I believe, 
somewhat short of the material for.300,000,000lbs. 
of explosive, and at the same time it is the support 
of large numbers of his industrial population. 
Whether it is worth while or not to have pro- 
visioned him — ^and to continue to provision him — 
so handsomely with the one chief material factor 
in modern war, and the one which he could not 
possibly get w-ithout our aid, it is for those who 
know all the facts — and I do not pretend to know 
them— to determine. 
A SIGNIFICANT WITNESS. 
One must be very careful in following the 
evidence — especially the evidence for nun)bers — 
in these great campaigns, never to alloAv anj^ ele- 
ment into one's calculation that is not what the 
French call " positive."' 
Nor should one put into the wrong categories 
the various activities of the enemy. One should 
not, for instance, mix up false news which is 
deliberately spread among the German populace 
with official news circulated by the Government 
for French, English, and Russian General Staffs 
to accept or reject. 
I will not, therefore, exaggerate the import- 
ance of the following piece of German propa- 
ganda, but I do use with regard to it the word 
" significant " because it is a very clear example 
of something which I have insisted upon per- 
petually in these notes — to wit, that; the various 
sections into which the enemy's efi'orts at influenc- 
ing opinion is divided are fairly clear-cut. What 
I am about to quote throws a A'ery clear light upon 
the way in which neutral countries are being 
coached by Germany. 
It is a series of figures published in an organ 
of the Swedish Press as late as March 19, and 
purports to be (what it no doubt is) a summary 
furnished by a writer " who has been recently in 
Berlin." Its principal figures are as follows (to 
the nearest round figure in tens of thousands) : — 
For GERM A N Y : 340,000 
130,000 
620,000 
dead. 
prisoners. 
wounded. 
For RUSSIA. • 
750,000 
770,000 
1^ million 
dead. 
prisoners. 
wounded. 
For the FRENCH : 460-70,000 dead. 
500,000 prisoners. 
720,000 wounded. 
For ENGLAND. 
120,000 dead. 
80,000 prisoners. 
180-00,000 wounded. 
Now, I need not tell my readers that these 
figures are fantastic. My point is rather to im- 
press upon them the qxtality of the phantasy. It 
is^ this : The enemy is getting now into the habit 
of hitting blind. We have had plenty of neces- 
sary falsehood by way of suppression, and not a 
little falsehood by way of direct statement or 
implication on all sides in tJiis great war. 
But you will not find at all in the statements 
of any of the Allies, nor will you find in any of 
the statements issuing from Germany (until these 
last few weeks) the element of the monstrous. 
When one reads, even in official French 
accounts, the news of prisoners who believe that 
the Germans are in Paris, or any startler of that 
kind, one hesitates to believe the story. But 
statistics such as the above — sent to supposedly 
frieiidiy newspapers — give one pause. 
The British prisoners in this silly circular 
are multiplied by four; the British dead by less 
than ten, but more than six; while the total 
wounded of all sorts are made out little more than 
the dead. 
The German figures, all added together, come 
to less than the belated and imperfect ofiieial lists 
(published by the Allies) for Prussia alone a month 
ago, and give a proportion of less than two 
wounded to o?ie killed. 
The French prisoners are more than double 
the total numbers w-hich the Germans have 
been able to make up by counting every conceivable 
civilian item into their own official numbers ^as 
published for us — who can judge, not tor 
neutrals). The total of French casualties, adding 
the sick, amount to more than the whole im- 
mediate front French fighting line. 
It is clear that these figures were not even 
exaggei-ations of existing lists. They were made 
up out of the author's head and had no relation to 
reality. But they were certainly sent to the Press 
of a neutral country believed to be friendly. 
Tlie lesson to be learnt from an incident of 
this sort seems to me to be three-fold. 
In the first place, and most important, it is 
another piece of evidence showing the working of 
the enemy's mind ; wherein there is that mixture, 
not uncommonly found in individuals, of patience 
and bad judgment; or, let me say, of accuracy and 
responsibility, where calculable things are con- 
cerned, coupled with great incapacity where 
things incalculable (like the mind of the dupe) are 
concerned. 
In the second place, it is a piece of evidence 
showing us that a North German or Prussian 
statement is always quite simple; and that Avhen 
we have got to the motive of it we can put a label 
on it vvithout fear of error. Such an enemy state- 
ment is always either rigidly accurate, or false, 
but quite credible, or false and fantastic, as the 
case may be; but the three categories do not run 
into one another. These bits of enemy news are 
simply accurate or simply false, and if false either 
credible or quite ridiculous. 
It would be interesting, by the way, to collecC 
and criticise a whole conspectus of this kind of 
thing. Such informations must be numerous in the 
Press of neutral countries, and particularly in the 
Press of countries still thought by the German 
General Staff to be favourable to the German cause. 
9» 
