aruly 3, 1915. 
LAND AND WATER, 
THE WAR BY LAND. 
By HILAIRE BELLOC. 
NOTE. — This article has been submitted to tbe Press Bureau, which does not object to the publicatioo as ceasored, and takes n* 
responsibility for the correctness of the statements. 
lo accordance with the requirements of the Press Bureau, the positions of troops on Plans illustrating this Article must only ba 
regarded as approximate, and no defiuite strength at any point is indicated. 
THE advance of the enemy tliroiicjh all 
Galicia and the temporary liberation of 
his territory, coupled with" the deliberate 
postponement of a general offensive in 
the West, lends to the present moment of the war 
a chai'acter of its own. 
Never were the higher commands of all the 
great services engaged more expectant since the 
fateful moment before Paris in the first week of 
last September. Never has careless and general 
opinion been more bewildered since the failure of 
the Prussians began nine months ago. 
Not only the German Press, which writes 
to order, but general and fairly instructed 
German opinion (outside the very narrow circle 
of the German higher command) is confident as it 
was never confident before. For it grasps three 
things which are of peculiar value to the hearten- 
ing of such opinion : The clearing of the enemy 
beyond the old frontiers; the firm resistance of tlie 
German line in the West; the failure so far to 
prevent even the most essential and exotic neces- 
saries of war — such as cotton — from coming into 
the Germanies across the ocean. 
The civilian opinion of neutrals is affected, 
and on parallel lines. Your plain man living in 
a large American town, for instance, will be less 
moved by technical military arguments than by 
the obvious truth that the Austro- German forces 
have advanced steadily through Galicia, that 
they stand firm from the Swiss mountains to the 
North Sea, that after nearly a year of war their 
material resources show no reduction of strength. 
Opinion among the various Allies is 
affected by the present situation in a 
fashion proportionate to many factors : The 
extent to whicli the population of a country 
may be packed into great towns — people so 
packed in large towns are always more 
nervous and ill-informed than a peasantry; 
the corruption of professional politicians and the 
corresponding power of the Press iti a country; 
the military experience of each country; the com- 
parative weight of civilian as against military 
opinion in each ; the political power of cosmo- 
politan finance in each ; and so forth. But take it 
all in all, the Russian retreat through Galicia, the 
continued postponement of a great offensive in the 
West (which was also expected in these columns 
at a date earlier than the present) have disturbed 
the general judgment of the campaign. 
In this country, in particular, whereas an 
expectation of rapid victory was popular some 
months ago, it has become (through particularly 
despicable personal influences upon which I need 
not dwell for tlie moment) unpopular to estimate, 
even with detailed figures before one, the chances 
of success for the Allies. 
Now, in a situation of this kind the very best 
service that can be rendered to opinion is a state- 
ment of fact — a statement wherein shall be con- 
trasted what is certain against what is merely 
probable. For it cannot be too often repeated that 
in vital matters reality alone is of any value. 
In the chief crises of individual or national fate 
neither hope nor despair are comparable in active 
value to mere hnowledcje. As for prophecy, it is 
futile. 
THE SITUATION IN GALICIA. 
Let us begin by asking ourselves what is the 
present military situation of the Russian line in 
the vicinity of Lemberg. 
That is easily described. It ran when the 
last advices came through (referring to Sunday 
evening, the 27th) after the fashion presented in 
the accompanying diagram. 
The dotted line in the sketch runs immedi- 
ately in front of the Bug to the north, of the Lipa 
southwards; fails to include Halicz, and repre- 
sents about a day's march east of the Lemberg 
line. 
At the moment of writing (Tuesday evening) 
it is probable, or certain, that the line has already 
fallen back further to the eastern bank of the 
Lipa, and will be continued beyond the last bend 
of that river at Przemyslany, across the rather 
marshy gap to the Bug near Busk. 
It is further probable that the line so drawn 
will continue the retirement in the immediate 
future, and that this will at last bring it on to 
the further bank of the Bug on the north and of 
the Sereth on the south. Now there is no permanent 
standing on the Sereth-Bug line, because there 
is no lateral railway. To stand thus would only 
temporarily save the junction of Tarnopol, because 
Tarnopol is itself on the Sereth line, and the 
Sereth is here no serious obstacle. The same is 
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