LAND AND WATER. 
September 4, 1915. 
Weir^htcd the scales against ourselves, /^e ^^^ve 
taken care Iv :u]mit only au estimate of the 
Austro-Hungarian losses based upon existing 
lists of hospital entries and field casualties We 
have not included what is certainly a large 
category— the cases of frost-bite and disablement, 
through climate in the Carpathians and in 
Polan'd during the winter. 
.Were we to subject the German figures to a 
strict proportion of ten for every Austro-Hun- 
garian eiglit, then the German figures would be 
far larger. . 
With an admitted Austro-Hunganan Joss 
in total casualties of 3,088,100 we should 
make the German lists as liigh as 3,860,000 
odd. But we can only place this as a maxi- 
mum, highly probable "as its results are. lor 
our minmum we scale the German total losses 
down to no more than 3,370,000. We add 
those to the Austro-Hungarian figures of 
3,088,100, and we get for the least total losses 
of the enemy to the end of July just under 
6,500,000; to be accurate, 6,458,100; a 
maximum would have given over 7,000,000. 
These calculations are intricate. The multi- 
tude of their component parts makes them difficult 
to follow. But 1 must again insist upon their im- 
portance ?.nd reiterate that upon a full apprecia- 
tion of their value depends our judgment of the 
. campaign. 
My reason for begging the reader to halt 
at this moment and fix this number of 
just under 6,500,000 for total minimum 
enemy losses up to the end of July (permanent 
and temporary) is that we must keep that figure 
in mind for comparison with the results to be 
obtained upon other lines of evidence. Only so 
shall we discover how nearly the varying separate 
estimates agree. 
(II ) THE EVIDENCE OF CAPTURED 
DOCUMENTS. 
showing losses of 'particular v,nits, verbal 
evidence from jyrisoners ujwn the same, evidence 
furnished by the Intelligence Department as to 
the recruitment of the enemy's losses, &c. 
This way of attacking the problem forms a 
large part, and is the basis, of the minute calcula- 
tions checked and established by the French 
General Staff. Those calculations now repose 
upon many hundreds of individual dossiers, all of 
them carefully compared one with the other, and 
corrected by collation with the published enemy 
lists, the noted number of prisoners, dead, and 
■wounded observable after any local advance, &c. 
iThe documents obtained are checked as against 
the verbal evidence, general and particular, which 
is received from prisoners; the whole evidence is 
sifted — from the most general and usually ex- 
aggerated statements to be found in private 
letters, to the official lists kept from day to day 
by commanders whose notes have fallen into the 
hands of the Western Allies. 
The general conclusion of the French higher 
command from all these sources combined was 
that, during the first five months of the war, the 
.German branch of the Central Alliance alone was 
suffering permanent losses at the rate of 
260,000 a month. 
Whatever the rate was, it has been main- 
tained; for the struggle has, if anything, increased 
in intensity, taking the Eastern and Western 
fronts combined. The vigorous enemy offensive 
. in Poland has more than made up for the inter- 
mittent quiescence of the Western front since 
this calculation was published, and even on the 
Western front there have been interludes of very 
heavy losses, as, for instance, in the prolonged 
fighting north of Arras. 
Let us see, then, how this estimate of 
260,000 a month permanent German losses 
tallies with the results obtained from the totally 
different line of argument just completed, the line 
of argument based upon the published enemy lists. 
The date, July 31, gives one the end of the 
eleventh month of active warfare upon a grand 
scale. This would give, for permanent German 
losses alone, if the Frencli General Staff's estimate 
-be correct, 2,860,000. Allowing, by the prin- 
ciple established above, one-quarter of all 
■ casualties to be really temporary in character, and 
only three-quarters to be permanent, this would 
give for the total German losses, permanent and 
temporary, roughly 3,800,000. 
This line of argument only applies to the 
German losses. The French General Staff can 
only apply its analysis to the Western front, 
where all the troops with the exception of less 
than a division have been from the beginning 
German. 
Applying our proportion of 80 per cent. 
for the Austro - Hungarian quota, as com- 
pared with the 3,800,003 total German 
casualties, gives us for Austria-Hungary over 
3,000,000, and, therefore, for the total enemy 
casualties 6,800,000 odd — which is within 5 
per cent, of our first minimum figure of 6,500,000. 
The aTgument along this line is much briefer 
than that along the line of the lists published by 
the enemy, but it is no less conclusive. 
(III.) ANALOGY WITH OTHER COMBATANT 
FORCES. 
With the exception of the enemy's, the 
British are the only force engaged in this great 
war of which the casualties have been hitherto 
published. 
On the other hand, these casualties, unlike 
the enemy's, have been published from time to 
time as a whole with minute accuracy and 
thoroughly up to date. They form, therefore, an 
excellent basis of calculation. 
We possess — or, rather, there is occasionally 
submitted to those who write upon these matters — 
certain figures with regard to the losses of the 
other Allied combatants. These are not pub- 
lished, but one is permitted to say at least this 
much — which common sense supports — that the 
figures tally with the forces engaged, both enemy 
and Allied. The French and Russian losses are, 
for the numbers engaged, proportionate to the 
known British numbers at any one time and the 
corresponding British casualties. This is no more 
than what might be expected in a war where for 
months the struggle has been maintained between 
equal armies without any conspicuous disaster — 
still less any decision — upon either side. 
Let us see what an analogy with these 
casualties gives us for enemy casualties as a whole. 
After nine months of fighting upon a grand 
scale the British forces had lost somewhat over 
250,000, men. Of these losses, one-fifth Avere 
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