September 11, 1915. 
LAND AND WATER 
QUESTION OF TOTAL NUMBERS. 
The next vital point, and perhaps that which 
admits of most argument, is the question of total 
figures. My readers may remember that I esti- 
mated these at about or but little over twelre 
million. 
Now it will also be remembered that the total 
number of males of what is called military age 
(fixing the inferior limit of this at seventeen and 
the superior limit rather arbitrarily at forty-five) 
was no less than twenty-seven million — more than 
double the approximate figure of twelve million, 
or but little over, which 1 have suggested as the 
probable enemy total numbers. 
The margin, therefore, between the gross 
total and the estimate of actual fighting forces is 
very wide. And it is no wonder that, with such .i 
difference between gross and net, the smaller 
figures should be open to suspicion. 
It is clear, for instance, that the enemy can, 
if he chooses, draw very largely upon men now 
employed behind the army in civilian and mili- 
tary provisionment. He' can also call to the 
colours a very considerable portion of men 
hitherto rejected for physical reasons. He can, 
further, summon men from over forty-five and up 
to what age he will. A man can walk and carry 
a rifle and shoot with it at pretty well any age. 
But the whole point of thi» normal figure of one- 
tenth to total population as the maximum which 
a nation can arm lies in this : That this propor- 
tion gives one, if the experience of the past and of 
contemporary nations is of any value, the maxi- 
mum of efficiency. In other'^ words, when the 
authorities attempt largely to pass such a figure 
thev only do so at the expense of som.ething else 
more important than mere numbers. They either 
confuse transport, or starve munitionnient, or 
weaken the total strength of their units (though 
increasing their actual number) by including 
human material which clogs their j^rogress. No 
one denies that the enemy could, if efficiency were 
merely tested by numbers of armed n.en, produce 
a figure very much in excess of ticelre million. 
There are even of efficients more like eighteeii 
millions, as vre ha\e seen. But the efficiency of a 
.>n?.tion in arms is not only tested by the number 
of armed men it can present; it istested by tlie 
action of the military machine as a whole, and in 
no case that can be produced, I think, of a modern 
army representing the maximum effort of a 
modern nation has this figure one tenth been 
largely surpassed. 
Another suggestion I have received from 
more than one quarter is that the census returns 
of the German Empire were falsified. I find it 
very difficult to accept this. Not only does the idea 
seem somewhat fantastic, but the falsification of 
such figures would involve a labour and co-ordina- 
tion of false entries surely impossible to maintain. 
An elementary point in all this, but one that 
is too frequently forgotten, is that the calculation 
of a n?.t ion's reserve of man-power is not the cal- 
culation of his existing n-.an-power. It is a calcu- 
lation of the difference between what it needs for 
some task it has undertaken and the total of its 
remaining numbers. The interest of watching the 
gradual exhaustion of the enemy's reserves of 
power lies in tlte fact that the enemy is really com- 
mitted to four fronts which cannot 'X!cupy much 
less than fi\e millions of n:en. and it is the margin 
between this enormous number and its total 
remaining number which we are noting. Were hia 
task less — should he, for instance, conclude peace 
upon any one front or destroy his enemies there— 
the calculation would change at once. 
QUESTION OF TEMPORARY AS 
AGAINST PERMANENT LOSSES. 
Another criticism which is of some weight is 
to the effect that the figures I gave last week may 
somewhat exaggerate the eneniy's real loss by 
underestimating the proportion of temporary 
losses. It will be remembered that I suggested 
out of every hundred casualties in a list not more 
than tM^enty-five as returning to the colours. 
I believe this proportion to be accurate 
enough in judging the close trench fighting of the 
last few months, where the proportion of dead to 
wounded has been so abnormally high, and where 
the proportion of grievously wounded has also 
been abnormally high. It might be too low a figure 
for fighting of a different type. But, upon the 
basis of British lists, it seems accurate enough. 
Those lists give, roughly, three-fifths as 
wounded. Of these more than half count on paper 
as men who return to service ; but not much mora 
than half — that is, three-tenths. 
Now, three-tenths is more than one-quarter; 
it is larger by five per t-ent. And since more than 
half are technically returned, there is a margin of 
more than five per cent., probably of nearer ten 
per cent., over the maximum of a quarter fixed in 
the estimate published last week. But I under- 
stand that of the numbers technically admitted as 
" returned," the proportion that can actually take 
up their old service is such as to bring the true 
figure very close to that quarter of the total 
casualty lists, which I have suggested. It may be 
noted that a War Office statement made some 
weeks ago was U]wn much the same lines, allowing 
for the return of one-fourth in the case of a par- 
ticular portion of the enemy at a particular date. 
QUESTION OF TOTAL FRONTAGF. 
Upon these estimates I think that no effective 
criticism can be made. All judgment upon the 
matter, official and nnofficial, comes so nearly to the 
same conclusion that I think we may fairly accept 
that conclusion. It is to the eff'ect. it "will Im? 
remembered tliat there cannot be much less tlian 
1,800.000 upon the West; certainly not less than 
2,600,000 upon the East ; and at least a quarter of 
a million upon the Italian front. It will be 
further rememliered that we left no less than 
200.000 for watching the Roumanian, the Serbian, 
and Montenegrin frontiers. These minimum 
figures will not give us a full five million, but they 
approach that figure, and if the proi)ortion of 
new drafts quoted by the French authorities be 
correct, then the total recruitment of all the enemy 
fronts combined must be at the rate of well over 
half a million a month. For to the 300,000 
Germans we must add 240,000 Austro-Hun- 
garians — that would be at a rate of wastage of 
rather more than ten per cent, a month, counting 
temporary and permanent losses together. Such 
an estimate corresponds veiy nearh' to the 
estimated rate of wastage which has been going 
on thixiughout the past year in the enemy forces. 
Spac^ prevents my dealing until next week 
with certain further questions on numbers which 
I have iust received from several correspondents, 
n. BELLOC. 
