L A N D A N D WATER. 
October 9. 1915. 
of effectives. Had he submitted to a defensive 
upon the Vistula line four months ago, he would 
l);ivo bi*en in a po-sition to juirsue a .•summer Ciun- 
paign in the \\'edt with very large remaining 
reserves of men. But the four months have eaten 
very deeply into those reserves. We need not 
ilelay to estimate the exact amount of this 
wastage. Everyone in Europe who is .seriously 
studying the canipaig]) knows Ihe round figures. 
They are. for the enemy as a whole, not less than 
half a million a month. Berlin and Vienna 
between them had to find drafts of at least that 
amount to fill their g;i{)s during the severe fi.ghting 
of the sununer. 
In a calculation of a toUilly different kind, in 
calculation of j)eimanent losses, you get a mini- 
mum of certainly not less than 400,000. In a 
word, the decision to go forward in the East in- 
stead of standing uj)on his best line has meant for 
the enemy since June and the San Kiver something 
round about two million men. A little less, 
j)erhaj)s. if you count only absolutely permanent 
losses, a little more if you count all the drafts he 
is compelled to call. 
It is true that in this great effort, thus expended 
hitherto without a decision, he has inflicted ex- 
tremely heavy losses u))on the Russians. 'Jhey have 
lost in men very nearly as much as he. They have 
lost in rifles more than half their original equip- 
ment. They can re-arm only with difficulty and 
slowly. The initial enormous superiority in inuni- 
tionraent which the enemy had upon the Eastern 
front is now gravely reduced, but it is still formid- 
able. It is also true that by this continued forward 
movement in the East the enemy has profoundly in- 
fluenced Bulgarian opinion. He owes to it prob- 
ably the present attitude of Bulgaria and the in- 
decision of Rouraania. For what it is worth, he 
has frightened the less instructed civilians among 
the Western Allies, and singularly affected the 
Press of the New World. But I think these latter 
effects may be neglected. 
His positive results in the East, then, are not 
neligible; but when we accurately estimate the 
cost at which they have been attained, I think we 
shall decide that the price was too high, and that 
the calculation he made is proving, or, at least, 
has hitherto proved, a bad one. 
All this does not mean that Russia can under- 
take a great counter-offensive within any decided 
limit of time. No one can tell when such a counter- 
movement should be attempted save those who 
have before them the figures of the new Russian 
equipment and the munitioning of the original 
.suppljr and its probable increase. That counter- 
offensive may be a matter of a few days more, or a 
few weeks more, or a few months more. No lay- 
man can pronounce an opinion of the least value 
upon the matter of the deW He has not the data 
with which to measure it. But the facts are there 
k f W i ""^ the recovery of a balance in the East 
is already possible. 
BituiHnn ' ^'''' if *^"^^', the prolongation of the 
German «r" '^' "^^i'^^f™ ^^"S ^^ '^'^ Austro- 
^eiman advance and the fact that upon the 
acSrr"et:^'^ ''^''' ¥'^ ^^" ^* one moSt an 
jctual retrogression which was only saved bv tho 
hTSS^f^ '"" ^'^^^.P^^'« ofThelinTan^ 
^othine Tii !]^ movement there. There has been 
K"^oV:l^l' ' ™^^'^^"^^ o^ ti'^e In front of the 
already in Mitau and apiiroaching the Dwina 
line in the middle of August. Tlie taking of 
Kovno rendered a great achmiee on the northern, 
or left, wing of the enemy jjossible. We are now 
near the middle of October. It is true that he 
wasted a vast effort and no little space of time in 
the autumn to achieve a local decision round the 
salient of Vilna; still, he has been in front of the 
Dwina line threatening Riga and threatening 
Dwinsk for a full six weeks, and he is no fuither 
advanced. Here, in Sketch I., one nia^' see how 
oddly stationary the two wings are. He ^^as 
in po.ssession of Friedrich.stadt and the bridgc- 
bwina%,-,^^no fi ""^"^'''^ or nme in tront of the 
uwina since the corresponding turnina of tte 
Russian invasion from ialicia^ The enL^ ^aa 
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