October 16, 1913. 
LAND AND W. A T E R , 
THE NEW BALKAN FACTOR. 
By HILAIRE BELLOG. 
NOTE Thli article has been submitted to the Press Bureau, w hicb does not object to the publication as censored, and takes n* 
responsibility tor tUe correctness ol the statements. 
In accordance witta the requirements ol the Press Bureau, the positions of troops on Plans illustrating this Article must only b« 
regarded as approximate, and no definite strength at any point is indicated. 
THE new situation in the Balkans produced 
by the Austro-German decision to create 
a" new front and to launch on a new and 
last adventure, coupled with the attitude 
of Bulgaria, demands close examination. 
The enemy is engaged — apart from the 
political objects which will be discussed later — 
in the direct military elTort so to divide the 
Serbian armies as to obt?.in control of the main 
railway line between Belgrade and Constanti- 
nople. " This railway line has, in times of peace, a 
bridge between the right bank of the Save at Bel- 
grade and tile left bank at Semlin, which bridge 
provides continuous railway communication 
between the Germanic Empires and the Near East. 
The line then goes to the Morava Valley, up 
which it runs, passes Nish, crosses the Bulgarian 
frontier, runs through Sofia, and afterwards down 
along the Valley of the IMaritza to Adrianople 
and thence to Constantinople. It is clear from 
the familiar outline of the district, as here in 
Sketch I., that the problem of controlling this rail- 
way line and of joining hands with Bulgaria, al- 
ways supposing that Bulgaria intends to work (at 
first, at least) heartily with the enemy, is the 
problem of clearing and grasping the north- 
eastei'n corner of Serbia. To effect this the enemy, 
must establish solid bridgeheads over the Danube 
and also over the Save at its junction w-ith the 
Danube. What he does further west is of second- 
ary importance. 
Only when he has established those bridge- 
heads — that is, forces solidly holding points on the 
further bank — so that he can cross the obstacle of 
the Danube at leisure is he in a position to begin 
his campaign for the clearing and grasping of 
North-Eastern Serbia and its all-important rail- 
way. At the moment of writing he is still 
occupied in effecting his Danube crossings. It 
behoves us, therefore, first to study these. 
CROSSINGS OF THE DANUBE. 
The crossings of the Danube by the German 
commanders (whose commands also probably in- 
clude many Austrian elements besides those acting 
in the west) consist of two distinct groups. There 
is first of all the group operating before Belgrade 
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