October 23, 1915. 
L A X D AND WATER. 
relief to Serbia and a note of interrogation our 
ignorance of its size) are almost insignificant 
compared with those upon their main fronts. 
There is but one strategic or purely military object 
connected with the new move, and that is the pos- 
sibility of the enemys training, arming, and sup- 
plying a certain number of Turkish units, either 
not already in existence, or, if in existence, ill 
supplied. 
Upon what scale he can do this we are ignor- 
ant, but we know that it is on no scale that can 
seriously threaten the Grand Alliance. It would 
be a far more serious thing if further neutral 
States in the Balkans were on account of the new 
move to join the enemys side, but even they can- 
not munition at the rate required for modern 
artillery, and Germany and Austro-Hungary are 
already in the rate of munitionment surpassed by 
the AVestern Allies. They will throw nothing 
serious into the scale beyond what they have 
within the boundaries of their own fronts. 
ON SEEING THliNGS AS THEY ARE. 
It has been the policy of this paper, and of 
my OAvn contributions, to avoid any controversial 
matter and to attempt to present what is called 
" objective ' or the historical trutli only concern- 
ing the war; to provide a commentary of the 
events as they developed, and to explain by the 
use of maps and the interpretation of news what 
the various changes of the great campaign meant 
when reduced to ordinary language. 
One is verv reluctant to abandon such a rule, 
but the mood of the present moment renders it 
imperative to add a word which borders at least 
upon the boundary line of controversy. It would 
not be fulfilling the task of commenting justly 
upon the progress of the war to leave unnoticed the 
false impressions which liave been reiterated the 
last few weeks, and which are now unfortunately 
beginning to bear their fruit of public di-scourage- 
ment and alarm among the civilian population in 
this country. One hears especially the complaint 
that the public is not ' told the truth,"' and this 
complaint is directed towards the politicians and 
the Censorship. It is true that some politician 
or other will now and then make a foolish speech 
either violently alarmist, with the object of get- 
ting recruits, or going to the opposite extreme for 
some private reason. It is true that the Censor- 
ship — which is much milder in this country than 
in any other — occasionally blunders and is some- 
times even fatuous. 
But the principal element in the misleading 
of the public is not the occasional speeches of poli- 
ticians or the occasional blunders of the Censor- 
ship, still less tlie necessary exercise of that essen- 
tial part in the machinery of modern war. The 
principal element in the misleading of the public 
is that section of the Press which deliberatelij 
spreads alarm and distrust because alarm and 
distrust are more sensatl'-nal. 
I have read in one paper alone, and in one 
issue alone during the past week, such statements 
as that the German losses during the great offen- 
sive were only 40,000. and that the French line 
had been thrown back south of Tahure. These two 
perfectly definite falsehoods of the crudest tyj)e 
were quoted from so-called " neutral sources,"' 
and printed as '" news "' with which to feed the 
English ))ublic. How can anyone hope to have 
" tfie truth about the war ^ when the Censorship 
allows stuff like that to be solemnly put before the 
public as the " lifting of the veil '" ? The Germaii 
losses in front of the attacking Anglo-French lines 
in the two sections alone where the offensive has 
been pushed amount, in counted dead alone, to 
more than 40,000, in prisoners to nearly 30.000. 
The whole point of the elaborate and detailed 
description we have of the present French line in 
Champagne is the holding of the butte or knoll 
which lies in front of Tahure. 
In the same paper and in the same issue I 
find an anonymous writer, quoting no oflicial in- 
formation, and apparently without even the 
capacity for judging a simple military situation, 
informing the public pompously that the offensive 
action of the English and French on the Western 
line was suspended and would j^robably not be 
attempted again this year. The first part of the 
statement was false and silly, the second part was 
a gratuitous piece of prophecy in a matter of 
which the writer could know nothing. The sole 
object was to be sensational and to alarm. A few 
lines further on the same worthy tells us that the 
enemy is far from having reached a balance 
against the Russians in Lithuania, and that his 
offensive may be successfully renewed at any 
moment. 
I say again, falsehoods of the sort that I have 
just quoted — crude and quite foolishly unreal, 
without base of fact or even deduction, and n)?,de 
anonymously in a A'ery widely-read and substan- 
tial journal; silly prophecies of disaster, equally 
baseless — are the chief elements in that misunder- 
standing of the war which is becoming a re?.lly 
great danger (in this country only — such things 
are not tolerated elsewhere) and which it is the 
duty of all of us to check. 
The same is true of suppression of fact, 
which is a form of falsehood as dangerous as any 
other. That detailed and comprehensive analy- 
sis of the enemy's numbers which has been the 
chief business of all sober students of the war, 
and particularly of the bureaux of the War 
Offices throughout Europe, is never presented by 
these journals to the general public ; they are not 
allowed a conception of the enemy's true numeri- 
cal position and its approaching decline. The 
Press of which I speak deliberately withholds — 
-because it is not of a violent and sensational 
character — those elements upon which all sober 
judgment of the campaign is based. 
The position of the great war is surely cleat 
enough in its large lines. If we grasp those lines 
as a whole, we do not, indeed, .see the future, for 
that is forbidden to man, but we have the elements 
of a sound judgment and we can see the trend, 
if not the end, of events. 
The enemy's efi'ectives cannot be maintained 
at their present strength beyond a date upon 
which the commanders of the Allies slightly 
differ, but which no one puts later than quite the 
early part of next year nor earlier than next 
month — November; and perhaps the close of that 
month. 
That is the great cardinal fact of the moment. 
As against this the enemy keeps up but does not 
increase his production of munitions and equip- 
ment; while the Allies, not yet so much as in sight 
of a decline of their effectives, already his supe- 
riors in the rate of equipment and munitionment 
in the West, are increasing their rate of the sa!ne 
in the East. 
Meanwhile, the- enemy is throwing away 
11 
