February 24, 1916. 
LAND AND W A 1 H. K 
The minimum certain number of German dead 
up to the end of the year 1915. 
In what follows, wc sliall bo dealing, of course, only 
with tlic deaths of men actually mobilised and forming 
part of the German armies. We leave out of account 
altogether the indirect effect of war upon the vital sta- 
tistics of civilians and of all auxiliary persons, not actually 
forming part of the mobihsed force. 
Our point of departure is the official lists published 
by the German Government from the outbreak of the 
war to the 31st of January 1916. 
Note, at the outset, that to take this date, January 
31st, 1916, is to weight the scales heavily against our- 
selves. One must always do that in any calculation 
where an emotional bias may be present. It is the pro- 
cess known in commerce as " taking a conservative esti- 
mate." 
The actual average of delay between the death of a 
German soldier and the appearance of his name in the 
lists is still over six weeks. From the end of 191 5 to 
January 31st, 1916, is barely four weeks and a half ; 
conclusions based upon the lists published up to, and 
including, January 31st, ^1916, are certainly therefore 
within the truth on that account alone. 
The number of lists published from the outbreak of 
the war to January 31st, 1916, is 860 ; the last of these, 
the 860th list, was published on January 31st itself. 
The total number appearing upon these lists as 
dead, after all corrections have been made for errors and 
for repetitions and admitted omissions, is 651,768. 
If, therefore, the official German lists were complete 
on this point, our fundamental piece of statistic would be 
already arrived at. We should know the German dead 
to be somewhat more than, but certainly not less than 
650,000 up to, and including, the last dav of the year 
1915- 
We know, as a fact, from many other sources, 
which will be dealt with later, that the German official 
lists are inaccurate, misleading and incomplete. But 
the particular methods by which this particular figure 
has been upset, and the true figure arrived at, are at once 
striking and conclusive. 
(i) In the first place the number openly given 
(651,768) is not, even by the enemy's own showing the full 
number. There is, by imphcation, another number to 
be added from another part of these same lists. 
Over and above the number officially admitted as 
dead, the lists give a certain figure for the " missing." 
Now the " missing " can only conceivably cover three 
categories ; (a) prisoners in the hands of the Allies ; {b) 
deserters ; (c) dead. 
The first of these three categories (a) is known \\itli 
precision. It is not allowed to be published, but the 
figures are the common property of the Higher Command 
in all the Allied countries ; the second category (b) is 
certainly an extremely small one, desertions from the 
German army, over the Dutch frontier are known within 
a small degree of error and arc quite insignificant. Deser- 
tions into the lines of the Allies, now happily growing in 
frequency, appear in category [a] among the prisoners 
held by the Allies. The remainder, category (c) inus(, 
and can only, consist of the dead, who have been left upon 
the battlefield after an enemy retirement, or in captured 
trenches without there being evidence among the enemy 
of theii' death. The only other possible category con- 
ceivable would be that of desertions within Germany 
itself, and the hiding of the deserters by their friends and 
families within the German lines. Without for a moment 
exaggerating, as is so often foolishly done, the political 
organisation of the Germans, it will be admitted that the 
number of these must be quite negligible. 
From this part of the calculation then, we can arrive 
at a certain minimum number of dead, over and above 
those appearing as " Fallen " in lists. We deduct, then, 
the known number of prisoners ; we allow some small 
percentage for desertion, and we arrive at a remainder 
which represents the very minimum number of the 
Germans who, though dead, appear under the category 
of " missing." 
If that category is as much cut down and falsified as 
are others later, to be dealt with, then the remainder so 
arrived at — the minimum of " missing " who are, as a 
fact, dead — may be very largely increased. But, at anv 
rate, it cannot be diminished. And that minimum, that 
remainder which we get from German lists of " missing " 
themselves, compared with our known number of 
prisoners gives a figure of well over 160,000. 
The German lists, therefore, officially admit as dead, 
either directly or by implication, over 810,000 men up 
to, and including, the last day of 1915. 
That the real number is ver>' much more, we shall 
proceed to prove. 
Special Lists. 
(2) It has frequently been remarked in th'ese columns 
that an excellent way of checking the German official 
lists was the careful comparison of them with lists pub- 
lished by private authority, by trade-unions, professional 
corporations, and the like. The results of this method 
has been cited in L.\nd and Water in the past, but no 
particular cases have been quoted except those which were 
available to all from their publication in the daily papers. 
I am now in a position-to give particulars which ought 
I think, to close the discussion upon this point. 
They are {a) parochial lists drawn up in the villages 
and published there with a legitirrtate pride as a proof of 
patriotism and for the information of the villagers ; {b) 
a great number of unions of various kinds, religious and 
industrial, who also give lists of their dead from date to 
date to their subscribers ; {c) similar lists given by large 
employers of labour from time to time ; what similar 
employers in this country call a " roll of honour " ; {d) 
associations formed for the purposes of sport ; great clubs 
of this nature, etc., which pubhsh similar lists. 
Now, before beginning our examination of this very 
valuable supplementary evidence, let me describe its 
peculiar weight. 
The German Empire publishes, as we have seen, 
official lists of dead, wounded' and missing. We shall 
later be able to show how and why, these are gravely 
and increasingly incomplete. But it also furnishes in a 
larger measure notice to the families of men who have 
fallen. 
There are great masses of the population who have 
no opportunity of seeing the official lists, and who would 
not be able to search them thoroughly even if they were 
available. 
The Government, after certain unavoidable delaj^s, 
privately notifies the family of the deceased. It is clear 
that any considerable failure to do this would soon cause 
.grave discontent. Those alHccl countries which actually 
forbid the publication of any general lists, are equally 
constrained to notify the families privately when one of 
their members is killed. 
It is from these private informations that the special 
evidence we are about to examine is compiled. 
It will be clear that if there is any concealment and 
diminution of the real numbers in public lists, that con- 
cealment and diminution will much less affect the private 
communications referred to. 
To take the averages of deaths per 1,000 mobilised 
men at any date, arrived at from these private lists as the 
full and absolute total of losses by death, would probably 
be to make too great a concession to the enemy. But at 
any rate, we are certain that the averages are not less 
than those appearing from such lists. The authorities 
may conceal even from a certain proportion of the 
families, or very gravely delay, the notification of death. 
But it will hardly send notification of death as certain 
imtil it is beyond doubt. There may be a tiny fraction 
of error from occasional misinformation, as we know 
happens in our own case, but it is quite insignificant in the 
.general total. The chance of error is all the other 
way. 
Now, before giving the results of these lists, and 
giving the reader the averages shown by them, I must 
first make it clear that the method is reaUy representative 
and wide spread. I will take the categories therefore, 
one by one. 
(a) The local lists (published and obtainable in Ger- 
many for some months) are the first category of evidence 
to which we turn for the checking of the official lists. 
Of a \'ery large number, those which were specially 
selected for minute and continual analysis were taken 
from the most widely differentiated parts of the Empire. 
The greatest care was used to avoid any partial effect of 
trade, race, or locality ; so that the combined result might 
